You mean like Polio? For things like measles, you have to hit ~94% and somehow we did that back when people trusted science. Source:
1) https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808
First of all, Pfizer and Moderna are the only approved vaccines, so let's focus on those. We know for sure that, when it comes to COVID, it's way better than not being vaccinated at all (up to 95% effective) and that it has been proven to significantly reduce the severity of COVID infections when they do happen (almost all cases after vaccination are mild). Source:
2) https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201118005595/en/
It's not about you or me. It's never been about you or me. It's about the herd.
While you guys love to quote death rates in a vacuum - and death rates are important- you have to know the assumptions. The current assumptions are that you get admitted to get care. This literally isn't true as of this week in highly populated parts of America. Without the ability to get in hospitals due to exponentially rising cases, folks that could have been cared for are going to die. Also, it's kind of funny to see that some of you literally last week pulled BS sources out that showed that we wouldn't have ICU capacity problems (you took overall US capacity in a vacuum or cherrypicked examples) and now they are manifesting in our most populated areas in America. Sources:
3) https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201218/covid-has-southern-california-icu-capacity-at-zero
4) https://abc7.com/health/what-happens-when-ca-icu-capacity-reaches-0%/8879527/
Also, why don't you all ever talk about how the hospitalization rate for COVID is significantly less biased towards old people when compared to the death rate? Younger people actually have a much higher, real chance of being admitted to the hospital and/or icu than death rates lead you to believe. For example, let's compare 30-39 year olds to 65-74 year olds.
The average COVID patient who is 30-39 years old is on the order of 22.5 times less likely to die than a 65-74 year old. But they are only 2.5 times less likely to be hospitalized. Sources:
5) https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/covid-data/hospitalization-death-by-age.pdf
6) https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html
So what? Normal average aged people have no real chance of hospitalization though, right? Wrong. A predictor was created using data from a cohort of studies to tell you the relative likelihood of hospitalization based on your age, bmi, race, gender, etc. Spoilers, it's greater than you think. For example, a 40 year old male with a healthy BMI who is white statistically has a 3.6% chance to be hospitalized from COVID-19. Sources:
7) https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0237419
😎https://riskcalc.org/COVID19Hospitalization/
Who cares about hospitalizations though? ICU admission is what matters, and that's probably not that bad, right? Wrong. Studies have shown that, when you take the population as a whole, generally ~24% of all COVID cases are admitted to the ICU. And that's not just old people, it's everyone. For example, out of the hospitalized young people aged 18-34, 21% ended up requiring ICU care. Look at the other age groups and you'll see the same trend. Source:
9) https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2770542
Put it all together, and the hospitalization and ICU admission rate for 30-39 year olds is on the order of 3% and 0.8% respectively. For 40-49 year olds it's on the order of 5% and 1.5%. Unfortunately, these aren't just trivial numbers, although we all wish they were. When you look at 65+, you get to terribly high requirements when it comes down to hospitalization and ICU admission rates. When a portion of society takes hospital capacity away because they go to strip clubs to protest "liberty," you end up making it literally impossible for numerous people to get life-saving care:
My hot take: If cases don't start to go down immediately, we are going to max out America's medical system from coast to coast. With this lack of access to care, significant amounts of people will die of treatable diseases - not just COVID. I mean, we've already had literally as many excess deaths this year as we did combat losses in WWII, so I guess this probably will fall on deaf ears. But no one's asking for permanent lockdowns or microchips or any changes to life that are long-lasting. Society is asking for you to be on the team that bands together for probably on the order of one year to take precautions, limit the spread, get vaccinated, and get through this. No one chose to have a worldwide pandemic that would unduly stress the entirety of the global human medical system. Everyone wants to get back to normal, and the only way to do that is to trust science and work as a team. Get on the team.