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jice

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jice last won the day on June 19 2020

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  1. Is the intent to employ primarily as a single ship? I know this thing isn’t a fighter, but if there’s a chance of rolling in for strafe with machine gun (not cannon), I’d definitely want somebody else ready to roll in ASAP. Edit: looks like I was confused. No machine guns advertised on this platform. In any case, seems like two in the stack would be better than one.
  2. The public (Textron amplified) announcement of the MTC for the AT-6 happened almost exactly 24 hours prior to their quarterly earnings call, in which the execs talked up the FMS potential and were ‘looking forward’ to the contract award.
  3. Yikes. Hopefully eligible only for CSO-carrying platforms. Strong incentive to do good and not be a douchecanoe. I flew for 10 years without having a clue what made a good CSO in a war machine. Gonna be tough for that person to have a clue.
  4. I wonder what percentage of the people picked up for this cost saving measure will end up doing just that… only to be forced by Air Force idiocy to go back through the UPT pipeline from the beginning. “Sorry, says it in the rules.”
  5. Yeah… Congress and the services: “Unique jobs, camaraderie, quality of service… intangibles… the retirement” The free market: “I see your claims and raise you… the exact same job, same people, different intangibles (like a family), same quality of service, at 3x the pay. Retirement? Yeah, I’ve got one too; where do you dock yours in the winter?” I’m not saying staying active duty is dumb… but the market is drawing the line from A to B pretty clearly WRT compensation.
  6. No. I’m saying the training has to be valid and valuable. My assumption is that they will be equally qualified (as an aviator in the mighty T-6 Texan II) to a FAIP. I don’t think the commissioning source has much to do with their capability to instruct. It WILL be entirely dependent on the training they’re provided (which I assume will also wash people out… since that seems to be some of ya’ll’s benchmark for a quality program.) Nobody is saying we should plop these folks down in a T-6 and have them start teaching. The assumption is that they would receive training adequate to perform to a standard. Re: Mil CAP: The civilian world has all kinds of names for “being kind of a sh1tbag” or “a disciplinary problem.” Humans aren’t imbued with super discipline powers because they went to OTS for six weeks. The training pipeline for these folks should be enough to weed out the people who lack the integrity/discipline/whatever to perform. It’s called having a job with high standards. I would expect these folks to graduate from a T-6 “UPT” and then PIT (if the training is less, that’s an issue with the training, not a hiring program). I know plenty of folks who were 0 hour pedestrians and became respectable T-6 FAIPS in ~ 1 year. If you’d ask them what they needed to become a better IP, I bet 69% would tell you “a job where the only expectation is that I fly and teach.”
  7. No, I’m saying that with fewer green bags walking around we need to send other than bottom of the barrel guys to make sure the pipeline produces something we want. I’m not concerned about the quality of instruction from the GS hires just because they’re GS hires. As long as they’re provided with valid training, they’re likely to be better than a FAIP or bottom third aviator from any other community because they’ll be able to focus on their j.o.b.
  8. Totally agree. This is a win… AS LONG AS it allows us to keep more folks in the CAF/MAF and be more selective about who we send to white jets. Fewer veteran aviators means fewer mentors, which means we can’t send the below average folks consistently and expect somebody else to pick up the slack. There’s a danger of fvking this up by not thinking beyond the next OPR closeout… so we probably will. This is basically a 1/2 priced FAIP who won’t care about the party planning to get ahead of peers. Write the job so the incentives align with quality production, and you’ve got somebody whose job is actually their job. None of these guys have to lie about wanting to be an officer first and fighter pilot second at 22 years old.
  9. Anybody in the know Re: this airframe becoming a program of record and standing up a stateside squadron? I see airframe purchases, budget money for modification/procurement and articles about a plan to put them at Robins as a GSU under the 319th RW. When are we going to pull the trigger? Think we will? DMs welcome (to exchange .mil as required). Are the EQ-4s done flying yet?
  10. Looks like the new bonus is out. 35k/year (even for 11Rs this time) with 3-12 year options. Lump sums starting at 5 years for initial eligibles. CSOs/WSOs… it’s not awesome. 15/25/35k per year starting at 3/5/8. Now, if we can just get folks to see past the “35k max is congress’s fault…” It’s bullsh1t. We ask Congress to write a law about every dollar we spend; failing to equip the force in front of congress and failing to build the force we need (pay for talent) are both the same failure.
  11. A wag that I’ve heard folks in the extraction business use is $80 a barrel to produce from shale plays like the Permian (much of TX) and Bakken (Dakotas). When the price of oil is below that, producers in these areas can’t turn a profit; you’d expect production to decrease, even with an increase in price, until the price of crude stabilizes above that key number (+- an extraction operation’s comparative advantage and/or risk tolerance.) I’d expect the 2022 projection to increase, but only as fast as we can reopen the more advanced plays. [$$] It’s not intuitive when you’re paying $130 to fill the truck, but domestic production lags the price of oil and always will in a capitalist society. (Which everybody knows, but is easy to forget when there’s sport bitching to do.) Would be a great time to have an RV camp in Midland… as long as you don’t mind a gunfight here or there.
  12. When you’re talking about supplying a continent, transportation is absolutely a much bigger issue than production. The infrastructure for export on that scale by ship to Europe has never existed in the United States and likely will not ever exist, unless/until Russian and Middle Eastern oil cease to be available and/or oil prices rise, irreversibly, to a level that those multi-billion dollar investments make sense. You really can turn production off and on rapidly to respond to the market (think Midland/Odessa TX over the last 12 years). Cap the well, ship your leased equipment back to some about-to-be-bankrupt equipment yard, pay a guy to keep people away, and tell your contractors to go work at Home Depot. Everything will still be there when the prices rise again. When you build ships and filling infrastructure for them you’d better be damn sure they’ll be useful and profitable in the long term. If they’re not working at or near capacity, they’re not paying for themselves; if there’s zero throughput, they’re expensive, broken monuments to optimism. We’re exporting primarily to Mexico and Canada not because they’re our best friends, but because there isn’t an ocean of costs (and risk) between producer and consumer. For reference, US exports to the waterborne market have been hitting historic highs year over year for the past half decade, but there’s simply no way to “turn the spigot” to create that infrastructure. (Almost exclusively located on the gulf coast.) It’s reactive to the market, which doesn’t support hundreds of billions of dollars of overhead at current oil prices. US oil tends to be more expensive because of the extraction methods required for large portions of it (something at which we’re still truly world-beating), so expecting that infrastructure to materialize out of the kind hearts of corporations in the very short term would simply price US oil out of the market when Russia’s/(country x’s) pipelines turn on again and the market normalizes. That said (and not saying this in response to anybody’s posts in particular), opposition to domestic pipelines is insane. The product is going to be sent. The nice thing about using pipes is that the product never derails and crashes through buildings or school busses. On the whole, way more environmentally and economically friendly. I’ve got pipes in my house. Work great. The way we replace Russian oil in Europe… that’s a doosie. Break economics? It just isn’t going to happen until Russian oil becomes proportionally more expensive to extract than it is for us to ship. Or! Lay pipe across the Atlantic… no, guys, not the way aircrew usually do.
  13. They’ll likely do the smart strategic thing that we weren’t willing to do: overtly exploit and destroy in pursuit of their interests. Democracy, human rights, individual freedoms? Who cares. They’re not going to evacuate the leader; if he want to live, he’ll figure out a way to pay his debts to the PRC. If unable, somebody else is holding the party’s hand in the cue. Their presence will be cheaper monetarily, and they’ll be more than willing to pay in a few hundred human lives per year for a Chinese bloc to the Persian Gulf. (“The Arabs barely use it anymore, strange… we’ve renamed it for our good friends”)
  14. “Hi Afghanistan, great to hear from you! Yeah! Those long range SAMs? Remember? That was part of the deal. They’re for your protection. You won’t even notice them as they drive through on your nice new highways to help “protect” you from aggressors in the Arabian Gulf. Oh… Having trouble paying for the road? Don’t worry. You can keep it, just let us periodically plop some J-20s and H-20s at those nice long airfields you’ve got. We’ll even fix them up for you at almost no charge. Mineral extraction and export rights in perpetuity should do the trick. Good, good. Well, nice talking to you… Just give us a call on the 5G network we’ve installed if there’s anything else you need. We’ll probably have something in mind for you already; funny how that works. Oh, by the way, have you heard about how great Beidou is? No. Sorry, we’ve got dinner plans in South America tonight, but maybe tennis in Malaysia next week?”
  15. Well… if the people in the military were obese children, I imagine we’d have been giving them lawful orders to lose weight and age.
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