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Prozac

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Prozac last won the day on July 17

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  1. While that kind of thing makes for good copy and it IS certainly frustrating to see western businesses kowtow to the CCP, I wouldn’t be so sure that the landscape isn’t shifting. Anecdotally, at my cargo operation we are seeing significant growth in places like Vietnam and India, while mainland Chinese ops have been continually disrupted and are shrinking. I believe FedEx is seeing a similar shift. Expats are leaving places like Shanghai and Hong Kong in droves, never to return, and many multinational corporations are following suit, moving regional headquarters to places like Singapore. The Chinese are making it very clear that they are no longer business friendly & while nothing happens overnight, I would expect those trends to continue & possibly accelerate depending on how entrenched the CCP continues to be with restrictions and how fast the Chinese economy contracts.
  2. Decent article discussing Chinese food security: https://chinapower.csis.org/china-food-security/ TLDR: Chinese consumption has outstripped supply. They have plans to mitigate but if you’ve read Zeihan’s latest book, he brings up the very good point that mechanized agriculture in China will go away without energy. They would have to literally de-industrialize and resort to subsistence farming in order to feed themselves. No matter what, any potential conflict would be massively de-stabilizing for the CCP and I just can’t see an upside to starting a fight for them. That said, I would’ve thought the same thing about Russia/Ukraine six months ago, so never say never I guess.
  3. Same. On the bright side, if the CCP wants to mount an actual invasion, the massing of forces will take months and be very, very obvious. Cutting off Chinese oil imports will be as simple as parking a few warships in the Straight of Malacca (there are a few pipelines, but they won’t come close to supplying Chinese needs). I’ve read that their domestic reserves would allow for roughly 90 days of wartime ops. That’s how long Taiwan has to hold out. Even if the invasion were successful, the Chinese will be effectively blockaded indefinitely. Energy and, more importantly, food imports will be a thing of the past and millions of Chinese citizens will starve or freeze (or both). Even if they could get access to some imports, their export industry will be toast and they won’t have money to pay for food. The carrier killer missiles might make life difficult within a couple hundred miles of Formosa but they won’t have much effect down by Singapore or out in the Indian Ocean or the Persian Gulf. The Chinese lack the reach to protect their supply lines. If we wanted to, we could turn China into North Korea in a matter of months and there’s fuck all they could do about it. Xi and the gang know this. There won’t be an intentional conflict any time soon. Unintentional? Maybe a bigger threat. Hope the air defense guys on their boats don’t have itchy trigger fingers like the Russians.
  4. Boomer being escorted out of Hood Canal West of Seattle.
  5. Prozac

    F1 Thread

    It’s bizarre. Last couple races it’s like they’ve been trying (hard) to get themselves OFF the podium. Maybe Binotto has some sort of behind the scenes super secret squirrel Euro deal with Toto or something. 🤔
  6. First paragraph is Spot. On. We had a real motley crew of true old school freight dawgs at a previous carrier. A few of the captains were legendary, some no kidding, some only in their own minds, and some more along the lines of notorious. I was warned on a few occasions before starting trips with some of them that I should consider a “tactical” sick call. I never fell back on that particular technique and I’m glad I didn’t. As JW said above, the entertainment value alone is often worth the price of admission. On a more serious note, a big part of the job is being professional enough to operate with just about anyone. Unless there is a legitimate safety concern, how hard can it be to occasionally smile and nod and raise the gear or extend the flaps when Captain America asks you to?
  7. This is laughable. He’s a washed up mail order steak salesman who cares about nothing aside from his own self interest. Any argument that he gave two shits about our country has been blatantly dispelled over the last few weeks. The man wipes his ass with our constitution & the Republican Party needs to ditch him faster than a cheap prostitute. I’m not an AOC fan either, but say what you will about the Dems, I don’t see them nominating her for president any time soon. Rs now have the unfortunate reputation of really and truly letting their loons run the party.
  8. I think you’re thinking in the right direction in your analysis. Commuting from New England should be doable for either, although as SurelySerious brought up, Purple’s commuter policies/benefits are objectively better than UPS. As far as management styles go, I’d say it’s good to think of it this way: FedEx is an airline that happens to run some trucks. UPS is a trucking company that runs its airline almost as an afterthought. IPA unity is a direct result of constantly dealing with a management style that wouldn’t look out of place in the 1940s. Remember that old Army Lieutenant’s guide that said all enlisted troops are lying thieving dogs who need constant oversight and liberal discipline? Well, that’s how UPS looks at all hourly employees, including pilots. We’re highly overpaid aerial truck drivers in Atlanta’s eyes. IPA has made great strides for this pilot group but the union is far from perfect. IMO the union worked very well when we were a sub 2000 pilot group that was mostly based in Louisville. As other domiciles have grown rapidly along with international flying, I think the union is experiencing some growing pains. Nothing that we won’t overcome & I think we have some genuinely smart people on our executive board, but it may not be the nothing but rainbows and unicorns you may have heard about. Bottom line: I wouldn’t turn down a job at either. Brown and Purple are alone in that they still offer defined benefit plans & they are uniquely insulated (although not immune) to economic downturns. If you end up with offers from both, I’d probably do a deep dive into which one will be easier to commute to. Try and talk with people at both who live where you do & focus on ease of getting to work on company and/or offline jumpseat options. Can’t speak to Purple but Brown is largely a weekday airline (at least domestically) which can make getting to work on a Saturday or Sunday difficult as SDF is generally at least two legs on the airlines unless you’re in someplace like Atlanta or Dallas.
  9. High enough that insurance companies really don’t like single pilot jets. Interesting article by Mac McClellan (long time Flying Magazine editor) here: https://airfactsjournal.com/2019/11/are-single-pilot-risks-real/ Here’s ALPA’s (admittedly biased, but with well presented reasoning) take:
  10. Goddamnit! I hate it when the nav is right! 😜
  11. Do the Strike Eagle guys fly missions with a single pilot? B-1? BUFF? Bone? C-17? C-40? Of course they don’t. Just like the KC-46, they were designed to be operated and employed by multiple crewmembers. On the AMC side of things, the vast majority of pilots have been taught “crew concept” and CRM from very early on in their careers. As a guy with a fairly extensive tanker training background, I don’t think asking our pilots and instructors to make this shift is anything short of a monumental sea change. It’s a far more complex problem than just asking if one guy could, in fact, operate the airplane solo. This might get a bit long, so settle in. First, let’s tackle the simplest question: Can a 767 be flown single pilot? The answer is yes. I’ve practiced scenarios in the sim where the other pilot was considered incapacitated and removed from the seat. The airplane flies the same with one pilot at the controls as it does with two. The real question is: Is it safe and effective to do it routinely? Transport category airplanes are currently designed to be operated by two pilots. From a human factors standpoint, unlike the controls of a single seat tactical aircraft, the controls of an airliner are not necessarily designed to fall easily to hand. They don’t have to be. The operating concept has always been one pilot flies the aircraft, while the other handles navigation, radios, systems, the flight management computer, checklists, and any other task not directly related to pointing the airplane in the desired direction (although the PNF still shares responsibility with the PF in ensuring it does indeed go where intended). These are complex machines from a systems standpoint and when nonstandard things happen, the extra hands and brain cells are invaluable. IMO, in order to even begin thinking about making single pilot ops in these types of airplanes routine, you’d need to START with a total, ground up redesign of the flight deck with emphasis on 100 percent reliable heavy automation that can do things like respond to voice commands to shut down engines, pull fire handles, close fuel and air valves, etc, etc. Also, if you are coming from a tactical background, how often do you fly single ship? Most of the time there is some sort of mutual support, usually in the form of a wingman, yes? Well, mutual support in big airplanes means a guy or gal sitting next to you. I’m not sure I’ve EVER had a flight in a crew aircraft where at least one error wasn’t caught by the other crew member. Single pilot ops will GREATLY reduce the mutual support concept, even if all the advanced flight following and enhanced automation concepts are implemented and work perfectly. Second, and perhaps the most important question: Can you effectively employ a large tanker aircraft with a single pilot? I really don’t see how unless you not only massively revamp the aircraft, but also revamp everything from the training to command and control to receiver procedures, etc. While the mission is pretty chill most of the time (takeoff, turn left, find clouds to drag receivers through), there are times where mission management can become complex. Managing multiple receiver taskings, extra fragged fuel requests, multiple radios, a tactical environment, fuel offload plans (that will affect cg and w&b), rendezvous procedures, ATC and airspace considerations, weather considerations, and any number of other variables can and do cause helmet fires with a full crew compliment of two competent pilots and an experienced boom. Asking a single pilot to take this on without some serious upgrades to the equipment and the system will be an absolute. Fucking. Disaster. We haven’t even talked about fatigue yet. Missions were long enough in the KC-135 with a basic (two pilots & a boom) crew to the point they were probably dangerous at times. The 46 is receiver capable. So now you want to ask a guy who’s been flying the airplane by himself for eight or nine hours to take a console (consolidation: take on fuel from another tanker) and extend his day to truly dangerous proportions? Again, asking for disaster. I really thought this was a joke when I first heard it. If it’s really the AMC/CC pushing this, I hope his leadership sends him to a psych eval. If he has any experience at all flying big airplanes, he should know this is a complete non-starter given the current technology. Now, I’ve been out for a while and I realize that tech and capabilities are a moving target and things have probably changed in the last decade. But I’m very, very skeptical that we have put the pieces in place to even start thinking seriously about a concept like this and the people with the most to lose will be the ones tasked with trying to undertake this I’ll fated clusterfuck. Here’s an idea: how about the four star goes back to flying the line, by his own single pilot ass self for a few months in all the kinds of shitty conditions he’s talking about exposing his crews to? He wants this? He can validate the concept himself.
  12. I think there are multiple ways to look at the message of the film, which is one of the things I really like about it. We all generally see obsession as unhealthy, but what about when it produces greatness? Are we ok with it then? Same with Fletcher’s methods, which are unquestionably heinous yet produce results. Another one: Is it better to lead a long but mediocre life or burn brightly for a short time as Miles alludes to at the dinner table scene? What about when it’s someone you care about acting in such a way? The film makes you think about these questions. And it’s brilliantly shot, directed, and acted. Loved it. Wish more films like this got produced.
  13. YGBSM! Wonder what the FAA will say when the AF tells them about their plan to operate a two pilot certified transport category aircraft in the NAS with only one pilot on board? How about European, NAT, or Asian airspace regulators? Sounds like a sure fire way to get banned from a good chunk of the planet’s airspace. Global reach be damned. Besides, who’s pepperonis are boom operators going to steal off pizzas now and blame it on the flight kitchen? The A-Code’s? I think not!
  14. Another not so “latest” movie that I just watched for the first time: Whiplash Stars Miles Teller (you know, Goose’s kid) and a yolked JK Simmons (yeah, the guy from the insurance commercials). Well shot, well edited art-house style film that never stood a chance at the box office when the public’s preference is overwhelmingly “more superheroes please”. But the story is apropos to the current plagues of participation trophies and helicopter parents and the general acceptance of mediocrity. Indeed, one of the best quotes from the movie is JK Simmons’ character stating “there are no two words in the English language more harmful than…..’good job’”. It’s a story about drive, commitment, and the human condition. You don’t have to be a jazz fan to “get it”. Anyone who’s had a passion about something and experienced a coach or mentor who knew how to squeeze every last ounce from them, or anyone who’s been in the other seat as a parent or a leader, will understand what this film is getting at. One of the best films I’ve seen in a while. Recommend. Here’s a clip:
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