Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[uhhello]

55 minutes ago, fire4effect said:

Honestly, I hope the Ukranians have some who hunker down and let the heavy stuff pass and make sure their mission in life is to kill these and anything like them.

Did a few visits/exchanges with FSU states and their mindset was eye opening.  We're very lucky as Americans to live where we do and what we DON'T have to worry about on a daily basis.  

[Prozac]

7 hours ago, MexicanHouseRULZ said:

Does anyone else find it ironic that the West is discussing carving up another European country for a dictator in Munich?

Wait, whaaa? 😳

[kaputt]

2 hours ago, Prozac said:

Wait, whaaa? 😳

I think he meant the similarities between the Munich Conference in 1938 with Hitler and the other main European players discussing Hitler’s desire to annex the Czech border lands; vs the current ongoing meetings, also taking place in Munich, between many of the same European nations, but this time replace Hitler with Putin, Germany with Russia, and the Czech border territories with the eastern Ukraine ones. 
 

 

Edited February 22, 2022 by kaputt
Can’t type

[Prozac]

Just now, kaputt said:

I think he meant the similarities between the Munich Conference in 1938 with Hitler and the other main European players discussing Hitler’s desire to annex the Czech border lands; vs the current ongoing meetings, also taking place in Munich, between many of the same European nations, but this time replace Hitler with Putin and Germany with Russia. 

Ok, except no one is advocating for appeasing the aggressor in this case. The goal is keeping a sovereign nation whole vice carving it up. 

[StoleIt]

39 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Ok, except no one is advocating for appeasing the aggressor in this case. The goal is keeping a sovereign nation whole vice carving it up. 

Well, technically, isn't inaction a form of appeasement?

And I'm not advocating for conflict...I've enjoyed my 6.9 weeks of "peace" since leaving Afghanistan in such dramatic fashion (but not Iraq/Syria/Africa/etc).

[kaputt]

1 hour ago, Prozac said:

Ok, except no one is advocating for appeasing the aggressor in this case. The goal is keeping a sovereign nation whole vice carving it up. 

I'm not sure it was going that in depth, probably just speaking to the general make-up of the situation that does in many ways resemble the late 1930s.

 

[Sim]

Precedence was set with Kosovo.....just saying the obvious.   

[fire4effect]

19 hours ago, uhhello said:

Did a few visits/exchanges with FSU states and their mindset was eye opening.  We're very lucky as Americans to live where we do and what we DON'T have to worry about on a daily basis.  

Gas, beer, lottery tickets and Slim Jims in one stop. (My redneck showing through) What a great country. 😁 

A long time ago I did a paper on the Battle of the Bulge and how logistics really defined the battle. The Allies advance slowed to a crawl largely because the supply line was so overextended. A closer port like Antwerp was needed as the Allies knew to get supplies forward more efficiently and Hitler and his staff certainly knew it since that was their ultimate objective. I recall a German Officer interviewed after the war said they actually planned to use captured American fuel and came close to doing so. Had they done so they would have made the Meuse River within a day or two. Crazy thing is all of us (civilian and military) are only as combat effective as our fuel supply. Our tanker fleet is anything but stealthy and as I've mentioned in the past I see that as a big vulnerability. I certainly don't pretend to have a solution.

I will say one thing the big element of surprise just isn't what it was in the 1940s. Pearl Harbor I don't see happening because the Japanese Fleet would've been tracked from the time they left port. In Ukraine commercial imagery is more readily available than ever and I wouldn't be shocked if our side is providing a little extra help too. The only thing missing is some Ukranian teenager developing an app modeled on the DUI checkpoint apps here to report the location of Russian Troops/Vehicles in real time.

[SurelySerious]

You’d think the agency would be all over an app like that; something so simple that would frustrate the shit out of an advance.

[uhhello]

Looks like its about to go down per the open source twitter intel 🙂

[Clark Griswold]

Just substitute Putin for Hitler and this Mel Brooks clip fits

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bennynova]

I hope you boys like Eastern Europe in the winter.

[SocialD]

13 minutes ago, bennynova said:

I hope you boys like Eastern Europe in the winter.

 

 

What are we going to do, send them a letter telling them how mad we are at them?  

[bennynova]

7 minutes ago, SocialD said:

 

 

What are we going to do, send them a letter telling them how mad we are at them?  

I was just joking.   
 

Gov and media will just cry about it for a few weeks.   Ain’t nothing gonna happen except Russia’s gonna get some new beachfront property.   

[Sim]

https://gab.com/disclosetv/posts/107851004303404959

Quote

JUST IN - Russian Black Sea Fleet launches amphibious assault on Ukrainian coast lines near Odessa and Mariupol.

Russian troops have reportedly landed in Odessa, others crossing the border into Kharkiv.

 

Looks like the fun started. 

[waveshaper]

36 minutes ago, Sim said:

https://gab.com/disclosetv/posts/107851004303404959

 

Looks like the fun started. 

Ukraine is game to you!?/:>)

https://youtu.be/fzLtF_PxbYw

Edited February 24, 2022 by waveshaper

[Prozac]

2 hours ago, bennynova said:

I was just joking.   
 

Gov and media will just cry about it for a few weeks.   Ain’t nothing gonna happen except Russia’s gonna get some new beachfront property.   

Perhaps. Or perhaps the Russians will be surprised by the bloody nose they receive from Ukrainian resistance. Perhaps the despot Putin will be taken aback when his people revolt as the ruble craters. Perhaps the Russian people will grow increasingly impatient as the security situation on Russia’s western borders becomes more tense, which is the opposite of what Putin has promised. Perhaps the Russian bear will be surprised by the swift and unanimous condemnation of virtually every developed nation in the world. Yes, Russian oligarchs may be drooling over potential new Black Sea dachas, but nobody wants to go to their little party. Fuck them. Fuck Putin. 

[frog]

11 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Fock Putin. 

This. 🇺🇸

Edited February 24, 2022 by frog

[Lord Ratner]

On 2/22/2022 at 2:12 PM, uhhello said:

Did a few visits/exchanges with FSU states and their mindset was eye opening.  We're very lucky as Americans to live where we do and what we DON'T have to worry about on a daily basis.  

Could you elaborate?

[FLEA]

5 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

Could you elaborate?

Here are some interesting things I've picked up working heavily in NATO/Europe. Really opened my aperture for how I see the world. 

1.) Europeans do not see the US as the winners of WW2. They believe WW2 was largely won by the time the US entered and US entry just accelerated the end. They view the war through the cost paid to attain victory and the majority of those costs were paid by the UK and the Soviet Union, especially the Soviet Union. They do recognize that the US was in a prime position to delineate peace outcomes though; see our earlier conversation about world leadership. 

2.) Russia and many FSUs don't believe Russia lost the Cold War. They believe the Cold War ended mutually after Gorbachev initiated a series of actions to approach Bush about de-escalation because Gorbachev realized the Cold War was upsetting the global order. They literally cast their own leader as the hero, and see the entire affair as a draw. The US and NATO betrayed these outcomes when they began rapidly expanding NATO eastward despite promises they would not. 

3.) About half of senior German officers in the German armed forces were East German officers when they joined. They usually came from astute, pro party families to attain this position and as such they largely see the world through Russia's lens and not ours. They are larger dissenters in most situations than other FSUs, who's entry into NATO was under different circumstances. 

4.) There are LOTS of people in the world who DO NOT WANT to live in a democracy. This is really hard for us to grasp as it's such a central value to us we can't see how anyone wouldn't want it. But you have to imagine first, how they are educated, then second, think for a minute: when they turn on American cable news, what do they see? BLM protest burning cars, rioting, looting stores. The January 6th riots taking over the US capital. Extremely unpopular leaders like Trump and Biden winning elections. Thats how they see Democracy, and they legitimately believe Democratic states are filled with political unrest, violence and instability. They believe a strong authoritarian government is necessary to enforce rule of law. 

5.) The Cold War has been over almost as long as the Cold War lasted now yet we still continue to frame our foreign policy through it's echos. 

One thing I have difficulty explaining to civilian family and friends is the geopolitical nuance in war and how it's never clearly black or white but usually lots of grey. But people want easy answers because they want to know "who to support, who's the good guys?" Of course it's never clearly simple and in war good guys are rare. Good sides are rarer because states by nature do not have morality, just interests. That's something our US education system doesn't teach in enough depth for people to really comprehend the underlying levels of it. 

On another note, Tulsi Gabbard made a tweet today that she believes war could have possibly been avoided if the US agreed to address Russia's concerns about Ukrainian entry into NATO. This tweet was largely condemned by pundits which I think is a shame because I think she is right. Historically it's been European tyrants invading Russia. Not Russian tyrants invading Europe. And until we recognize that Russia doesn't want another Hittler or Napolean getting within 60nm of Moscow we probably are going to struggle to understand their interests and foreign policy position. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by FLEA

[ClearedHot]

Ukrainians appear willing to fight initially but the Russians have complete Air Supremacy and the Ukrainian ground forces are going to pay a horrible price. 

War is just horrible and a lot of people are going to die because of a madman.

[FLEA]

25 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Ukrainians appear willing to fight initially but the Russians have complete Air Supremacy and the Ukrainian ground forces are going to pay a horrible price. 

War is just horrible and a lot of people are going to die because of a madman.

Yeah, the lack of air power is really whats going to kill the Ukraine. They have defensible numbers otherwise and their military is in a much better state than 2014. But only 50 fighter jets against several hundred 😕 not good...

[hockeydork]

30 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Ukrainians appear willing to fight initially but the Russians have complete Air Supremacy and the Ukrainian ground forces are going to pay a horrible price. 

War is just horrible and a lot of people are going to die because of a madman.

New era if you ask me. This is the final act that proves West and East will never be amicable. We had better start realizing that, working hard, and strengthening our own resolve, or we will fall like many strong others have before us. 

 

Horrifying.

Edited February 24, 2022 by hockeydork

[tac airlifter]

Flea, great post.  I 100% agree with all your observations based on my brief time in NATO as well.  Also agree on your comments WRT Gabbard’s post.  It was foolish and naïve of us not to acquiesce diplomatically to Russia’s need for a land buffer between NATO & Russia.  
 

We need to stop calling every adversary  evil because it makes fighting them the only answer.  Not everybody is “literally Hitler.”  We’ve definitely fought evil people where destroying them was our only option— ISIS, AQ, etc.  But I think we could have negotiated better with Russia.  Now there is real war which is horrible.  To be clear- it’s Russia’s fault for the things they’re doing.  But did our insistence Putin = Hitler blind is from taking seriously Russia’s desire for border security?  Maybe.
 

[Sua Sponte]

1 hour ago, FLEA said:

Here are some interesting things I've picked up working heavily in NATO/Europe. Really opened my aperture for how I see the world. 

1.) Europeans do not see the US as the winners of WW2. They believe WW2 was largely won by the time the US entered and US entry just accelerated the end. They view the war through the cost paid to attain victory and the majority of those costs were paid by the UK and the Soviet Union, especially the Soviet Union. They do recognize that the US was in a prime position to delineate peace outcomes though; see our earlier conversation about world leadership. 

2.) Russia and many FSUs don't believe Russia lost the Cold War. They believe the Cold War ended mutually after Gorbachev initiated a series of actions to approach Bush about de-escalation because Gorbachev realized the Cold War was upsetting the global order. They literally cast their own leader as the hero, and see the entire affair as a draw. The US and NATO betrayed these outcomes when they began rapidly expanding NATO eastward despite promises they would not. 

3.) About half of senior German officers in the German armed forces were East German officers when they joined. They usually came from astute, pro party families to attain this position and as such they largely see the world through Russia's lens and not ours. They are larger dissenters in most situations than other FSUs, who's entry into NATO was under different circumstances. 

4.) There are LOTS of people in the world who DO NOT WANT to live in a democracy. This is really hard for us to grasp as it's such a central value to us we can't see how anyone wouldn't want it. But you have to imagine first, how they are educated, then second, think for a minute: when they turn on American cable news, what do they see? BLM protest burning cars, rioting, looting stores. The January 6th riots taking over the US capital. Extremely unpopular leaders like Trump and Biden winning elections. Thats how they see Democracy, and they legitimately believe Democratic states are filled with political unrest, violence and instability. They believe a strong authoritarian government is necessary to enforce rule of law. 

5.) The Cold War has been over almost as long as the Cold War lasted now yet we still continue to frame our foreign policy through it's echos. 

One thing I have difficulty explaining to civilian family and friends is the geopolitical nuance in war and how it's never clearly black or white but usually lots of grey. But people want easy answers because they want to know "who to support, who's the good guys?" Of course it's never clearly simple and in war good guys are rare. Good sides are rarer because states by nature do not have morality, just interests. That's something our US education system doesn't teach in enough depth for people to really comprehend the underlying levels of it. 

On another note, Tulsi Gabbard made a tweet today that she believes war could have possibly been avoided if the US agreed to address Russia's concerns about Ukrainian entry into NATO. This tweet was largely condemned by pundits which I think is a shame because I think she is right. Historically it's been European tyrants invading Russia. Not Russian tyrants invading Europe. And until we recognize that Russia doesn't want another Hittler or Napolean getting within 60nm of Moscow we probably are going to struggle to understand their interests and foreign policy position. 

This is spot on one thing I would add to #4 is the Ukrainian people have made it very clear that they prefer western democracy to Russian authoritarianism, hence the invasion. There are, however, pockets of ethnic Russians in Ukraine who prefer to live under Russian rule. Personally, I think Crimea was one of those areas.