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China & Chinese Shenanigans


Marlboro BLACK

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23 hours ago, bfargin said:

Sadly that sounds like US policy too. we spend millions/maybe billion each year on cheap China crap so we can shop at the dollar store and Walmart at prices that seems too low to be true on many products. It ends up being cheaper to ship raw material to China and other asian countries for processing and assembly and then ship it back than for us to build it here?! No wonder we don't make jack shit anymore. I read recently that there is only one US facility that still makes nails. Even most of our ammo is made/assembled overseas now.

Doesn't appear to have worked, but I have always had this backward thought that maybe by trading heavily with China, they would "see the light" slowly over time, thus preventing a large scale conflict and aggression by intertwining their economy with the west. 

When they abolished term limits, it was game over. Only reason someone abolishes term limits is because they love power. What do people who love power do eventually? They conquer shit. 

Playing nice with the bully didn't work. If Aussies can see the writing on the wall...time to arm up. 

 

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21 minutes ago, hockeydork said:

Doesn't appear to have worked, but I have always had this backward thought that maybe by trading heavily with China, they would "see the light" slowly over time, thus preventing a large scale conflict and aggression by intertwining their economy with the west. 

When they abolished term limits, it was game over. Only reason someone abolishes term limits is because they love power. What do people who love power do eventually? They conquer shit. 

Playing nice with the bully didn't work. If Aussies can see the writing on the wall...time to arm up. 

 

It was a nice theory but it worked the wrong way. Our balance of trade with China was negative. Trade is at its core, the exchange of culture. The theory was if we traded enough with China would we subtly introduce free democratic values to their culture through movies, art, music, video games, etc... But China got the upper arm on trade and simultaneously became the worlds largest market and nearly the worlds largest producer. Because of this they are largely allowed to determine the quality of goods that are distributed across the globe. 30 years ago when the US held this position the quality was simply determined by supply and demand. Better goods for lower price would sell. However, as China has a controlled market, the government is allowed to alter the quality. What's extremely dangerous about this is that they have begun altering the quality to favor their own culture and are now using our own strategy against us. How many American children will grow up believing that China always had a historically documented claim to the 9 Dash line because they have an unconscious memory of it in the background of Disney's Mulan, displayed as a historic map? China seeks to slowly change the social memory of the world into one that favors Chinese superiority and hegemony. They are bitter and jaded of Chinese humiliation by westerners over the last 250 years. Its not going to be a good outcome for us. 

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https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/26/china/meng-wanzhou-china-arrival-intl-hnk/index.html

 

Huawei CFO Meng released back to China in what can only be interpreted as the Biden admin caving to bullying. 

 

What frustrates me the most in this whole situation is how successful China's false information campaign was. There are a TON of people, particularly on the left, who believe Meng was taken in retaliation for two Canadian citizens caught spying and not the other way around. For whatever reason, there is a splinter of the Democratic party (but not all of them) who just bow to China and have no desire to protect US interest in issues involving China. But what's been extraordinarily damaging to our strategy at approaching China has been this strategy of appeasement that Biden seemed to have carried over from his terms with Obama. 

We need to wake up people. There are 100s of thousands of expats living and working in China. They are all at risk now to become political hostages if the US ever wishes to enforce its laws on Chinese citizens abroad. 

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there is a splinter of the Democratic party (but not all of them) who just bow to China 

 

Not to mention a certain member of the JCS.

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On 9/26/2021 at 5:08 AM, FLEA said:

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/26/china/meng-wanzhou-china-arrival-intl-hnk/index.html

 

Huawei CFO Meng released back to China in what can only be interpreted as the Biden admin caving to bullying. 

 

What frustrates me the most in this whole situation is how successful China's false information campaign was. There are a TON of people, particularly on the left, who believe Meng was taken in retaliation for two Canadian citizens caught spying and not the other way around. For whatever reason, there is a splinter of the Democratic party (but not all of them) who just bow to China and have no desire to protect US interest in issues involving China. But what's been extraordinarily damaging to our strategy at approaching China has been this strategy of appeasement that Biden seemed to have carried over from his terms with Obama. 

We need to wake up people. There are 100s of thousands of expats living and working in China. They are all at risk now to become political hostages if the US ever wishes to enforce its laws on Chinese citizens abroad. 

He may have been caving to that kid up in Canada* (Trudeau), this lying foreign girl was traded for two Canadian diplomats.

*Not to be confused with that "Fat kid in North Korea."

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21 minutes ago, GrndPndr said:

He may have been caving to that kid up in Canada* (Trudeau), this lying foreign girl was traded for two Canadian diplomats.

*Not to be confused with that "Fat kid in North Korea."

Neither men were diplomats. One was formally a diplomatic official of Canada, but both were employed by NGOs at the time of their detention. 

Regardless of what Trudeau wanted or not, this sent a clear message to China that their elites no longer have to comply with Western laws, to include sanctions against Iran and North Korea. The US has clearly communicated in this it doesn't have the capability anymore to enforce those sanctions. 

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Any guesses on implications of Chinese military activity around Taiwan?  I’ve never seen anything quite like it.  
 

if they were going to invade, which I’d always thought unlikely, there’s no better time.  We just lost a war, no political appetite to pay the price of defending Taiwan militarily, etc.  Perhaps it’s just harassment, but there’s no doubt the level of aggression is increasing.

Open source article (which is lame) for context: https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386

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2 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

Any guesses on implications of Chinese military activity around Taiwan?  I’ve never seen anything quite like it.  

if they were going to invade, which I’d always thought unlikely, there’s no better time.  We just lost a war, no political appetite to pay the price of defending Taiwan militarily, etc.  Perhaps it’s just harassment, but there’s no doubt the level of aggression is increasing.

Open source article (which is lame) for context: https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386

Same.  Just my two guessing cents but I think it's even money that the PRC that they will begin actions / invade before or timed with the upcoming mid-terms.

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/10/01/record-38-chinese-pla-aircraft-enter-taiwans-air-defense-zone/

They're probing and testing responses, military-diplomatic-economic-informational, to gauge second order effects when they invade.  How will the markets react, how will Western media react, how will third countries react, etc...

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Could also be a hard count, seeing if Taiwan flinches and gives them a reason to intervene.

Which in the end if it did happen would only help their cause.

Strategic surprise is one element to consider with being the aggressor, but if they can paint Taiwan as an instigator and get the political narrative running of the, trying to drag us into a war that, “they started,” it’ll only help to keep us out of the fight. It would easily be worth it to lose a few planes or a small patrol ship if it meant not having to worry about the US while they exercised their plans in Taiwan.

Most of our understanding of defense treaties is under the premise of responding to attack. We started talking about that method to avoid conflict when it looked like Turkey was gonna start WWIII with the Russians in Syria.


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37 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

Same.  Just my two guessing cents but I think it's even money that the PRC that they will begin actions / invade before or timed with the upcoming mid-terms.

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2021/10/01/record-38-chinese-pla-aircraft-enter-taiwans-air-defense-zone/

They're probing and testing responses, military-diplomatic-economic-informational, to gauge second order effects when they invade.  How will the markets react, how will Western media react, how will third countries react, etc...

If China were going to attack Taiwan, there’s never been a better time than now.  

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I'm not a geopolitical expert... but I do not see the current regime, with the budget problems, immigration problems, and public health problems they're facing, coming off a military loss widely characterized as a disaster, intervening on Taiwan's behalf. I don't think they will believe the juice is worth the squeeze... not in military losses, not in the international community, not in the markets. 

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If China were going to attack Taiwan, there’s never been a better time than now.  

The timing is good from their perspective, attack could mean putting Taiwan into check versus checkmate to let them capitulate and give the US / Democrat-Globalist administration a way out without a military response to PRC aggression.
If I were the PRC I would enforce a sudden naval, air and informational blockade of Taiwan. Tell the world that this is done and not to interfere and that the PRC would use its full capability to include nuclear weapons against any other nation interfering, if I were the Chinese public relations guy I would make the English translation use the same words as Kennedy’s televised speech during the Cuban Missile Crisis. That’s their angle is to muddy the situation and claim it’s like the CMC and that they have a historical analogous position to use military coercion to change the situation on the island and to threaten retaliation against any interfering power.
I don’t think they do but that’s the way I would play it.


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46 minutes ago, pawnman said:

I'm not a geopolitical expert... but I do not see the current regime, with the budget problems, immigration problems, and public health problems they're facing, coming off a military loss widely characterized as a disaster, intervening on Taiwan's behalf. I don't think they will believe the juice is worth the squeeze... not in military losses, not in the international community, not in the markets. 

Agreed.  Our losses if we intervened would be staggering.  There’s no appetite.  If the Chinese invade, we’d sit and watch while wringing our hands, just like we did when Ukraine was invaded by Russia.  

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38 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:


The timing is good from their perspective, attack could mean putting Taiwan into check versus checkmate to let them capitulate and give the US / Democrat-Globalist administration a way out without a military response to PRC aggression.
If I were the PRC I would enforce a sudden naval, air and informational blockade of Taiwan. Tell the world that this is done and not to interfere and that the PRC would use its full capability to include nuclear weapons against any other nation interfering, if I were the Chinese public relations guy I would make the English translation use the same words as Kennedy’s televised speech during the Cuban Missile Crisis. That’s their angle is to muddy the situation and claim it’s like the CMC and that they have a historical analogous position to use military coercion to change the situation on the island and to threaten retaliation against any interfering power.
I don’t think they do but that’s the way I would play it.


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The PLAN is not currently capable of enforcing a naval blockade of Taiwan (though they're definitely striving for increased capabilities across the board).

  If we catch wind that the PRC is going to execute your above scenario, maybe we should give the ROCs their own nuclear weapons capability.  Reverse order of the Cuban Missile Crisis.  I'm only half joking, nuclear weapons being the ultimate guarantee of a country's security and all that.

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On 7/28/2021 at 8:37 AM, HeloDude said:

My money is on the Chinese commies.  My money is also on that we wouldn’t fire a single round to stop them.

If we don’t care about the Chinese commies running China the way they do and their influence over their region, then we’re not going to care if they invade an island that they continue to claim as their own.  Sure we’ll condemn it and the UN will have some harsh words and perhaps we might impose a few minor (but not significant) sanctions  but that will be it.  That’s what happens when you’re so economically in bed with your (supposed) enemy.

If the CCP wants to put its troops on Taiwan, it’s theirs to take.

My $.02

Reposted since it’s my current argument…and it’s only stronger after the Afghanistan embarrassment (which I also somewhat predicted as well when Biden in July was bragging about the competency of the Afghan military…though I didn’t think the collapse would happened nearly as fast as it did).

So not only would we not do anything militarily to stop China, we’re so in bed with them economically that we don’t even want to piss them off with what we currently say/our current foreign policy.  The entertainment industry is so in bed with China that they refuse to even recognize the atrocities committed by the CCP (but somehow the US is evil due to “systemic racism”) and also they (entertainment industry) refuse to recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation.  The MSM by and large also sweeps the atrocities committed by CCP under the rug when compared to the other nonsense our media focuses on (Trump collusion with Russia as one example).

With all the above, I’m willing to bet that the American population by and large would not support military intervention if China goes into Taiwan…and they wouldn’t support a massive hit to our fragile economy due to the US imposing stiff penalties against China for doing so.

In the end…I think China invades Taiwan NLT summer of 2024.  The CCP isn’t dumb and they also realize everything I mentioned above—so why wait until a new administration potentially takes over in 2025 and the ballgame changes?

 

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17 minutes ago, DirkDiggler said:

The PLAN is not currently capable of enforcing a naval blockade of Taiwan (though they're definitely striving for increased capabilities across the board).

  If we catch wind that the PRC is going to execute your above scenario, maybe we should give the ROCs their own nuclear weapons capability.  Reverse order of the Cuban Missile Crisis.  I'm only half joking, nuclear weapons being the ultimate guarantee of a country's security and all that.

Yeah but they (the PLAN) can give the appearance of one while the other Lines of Effort are worked. 

Simultaneously with my hypothetical rapidly deployed air/naval/info blockade would be coordinated actions with all the other bad kids in the classroom (NK, Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Cuba, Turkey, TNCOs, VEOs, etc) and a massive Cyber / Financial attack.

The strategy would be distraction in too many places to react militarily in a timely manner

NK begins shelling SK islands and minor kinetic actions, fires a missile or two over Japan.  Iran begins miming the Straits of Hormuz, harassing and seizing civilian vessels, gets the Houthis to launch new attacks against Yemen and KSA.  Russia gets really aggressive in the Baltics and over the Baltic Sea.  Venezuela and Cuba release enormous numbers of migrants with support to get them to the US borders, ditto x 10 for Turkey & Russian releasing / pushing ME & African migrants into Western Europe.  TNCOs in Mexico and Central America do the same with migrants and destabilization of governments, might even get the ruling classes to abandon their countries, if we will tolerate the Taliban they might tolerate an almost overt narco-mafia state.  Assist covertly VEOs for a high profile attack or two, etc.... 

I would also lean heavily on American businesses in China and sympathetic leftist woke politicians and entities in the US & Europe to argue for a diplomatic solution versus military action,  they could also use the debt coercion they have established with their predatory lending in Belt/Road projects to quickly garner support for their position, debt forgiven for support during the crisis arguing for the position of the PRC, etc...

Cyber and Disinformation Campaign, dump T-bills and give the stock market a shock, etc...

All the Tom Clancy stuff is to just paralyze the OODA loop capabilities of the current regime, too much for them all at once.

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On 10/3/2021 at 8:31 AM, DirkDiggler said:

If we catch wind that the PRC is going to execute your above scenario, maybe we should give the ROCs their own nuclear weapons capability.  Reverse order of the Cuban Missile Crisis.  I'm only half joking, nuclear weapons being the ultimate guarantee of a country's security and all that.

Hey, that’s my line! But really, yes, some nukes on a dead man’s switch…

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Understand the  real strategic answer may be classified/cannot put on these forums. Is there a  reason we don't pump Taiwan full of defensive weapons sooner rather later, in order to make China pay a ridiculous price in order to impose their will? make it so that if they attack, their forces become severely degraded, they look like aggressive assholes, world shuns them.  We come out on top. If the people of Taiwan want to fight for their freedom, seems pretty un-American to let them be squished easily. I've seen some articles that they are expecting upgraded patriots in 2025, seems like it'll be a little late. 

Status quo should be maintained IMO, whatever that takes. American politics are rough, but I'll take it any day over living under a king in presidents clothing. Assuming the people of Taiwan feel the same. 

 

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Major Construction Underway At Three Of China's Airbases Closest To Taiwan

message-editor%2F1634101299002-airbasestaiwan.jpg?quality=60

"China is upgrading three airbases located opposite Taiwan, boosting its airpower capability in an already tense region that is flush with air combat capabilities. Construction of the new infrastructure began in early 2020 and continued uninterrupted through the pandemic, underlining its priority.

The work at the Chinese air force's bases at Longtian, Huian, and Zhangzhou, all of which lie between 100 and 200 miles from Taiwan, give it an enhanced forward presence near the Taiwan Strait. This, when coupled with the flurry of flights through Taiwan’s ADIZ, all appear to be in line with Beijing’s evolving aggressive posture towards the island nation..."

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