Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[Smokin]

If the current trend on the ground continues a couple more days, Ukraine should have a return of control to all of Ukraine as preconditions to peace talks.  The sanctions from the EU (finally) and the weapons being shipped to Ukraine (finally) should only make Ukraine's position better and better as time goes.  Maybe even the US could chip in something eventually when Biden gets back from vacation/cryo treatments.  If Putin wants to dig in, he might find himself in serious trouble at home.

[DirkDiggler]

35 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Oddly quite Odessa Control frequency, followed by strange flashes of light fence in.........."hey Co, you checked the NOTAMs right"?

[jazzdude]

Also, when the Ukraine government ordered that their adult males could not leave the country, I became less supportive of their “freedom” than before.  I have always been against conscription—it’s literally slavery.

It's no different than the selective service we still have on the books in our country, or the fact that the US had used conscription to achieve national goals until very recently in our history.

Ukraine is facing a fight for it's existence, and called up all the men of military fighting age to defend their country. Freedom isn't free...

[fire4effect]

Zelensky agrees to negotiate with Russia; Putin puts nuclear forces on alert (msn.com)

Sounds like Putin wants an "injury timeout" to slow the tempo and look like he's looking for a peaceful solution. Don't trust him at all.

[Danger41]

5 hours ago, Buddy Spike said:

His source is ENJJPT students who heard it from a friend of a friend of a friend.

Yes, the entire Ghost story was made up by a gamer on Twitter.    It's based on a video game called Ace Combat.

No, I'm a fighter pilot with a bit of common sense and a healthy dose of skepticism.  Given what you know about the MiG-29 and the Russian Air Force, did such a story really ever make sense? Do you really think a retired Su-27 pilot hopped in a MiG-29 and suddenly had global SA in such an environment and accounted for 69% of the kills?

Stop being so gullible.  

 

No point in going Point by point because this doesn’t matter. I’ll be Mulder, you can be Scully, and we’ll drink 10 beers about it someday.

But speaking of gullibility, I gotta dip out for a bit to extend my car’s warranty on my way to a guided Bigfoot sighting expedition. Great deal!

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, jazzdude said:

 

 

It's no different than the selective service we still have on the books in our country, or the fact that the US had used conscription to achieve national goals until very recently in our history.

Ukraine is facing a fight for it's existence, and called up all the men of military fighting age to defend their country. Freedom isn't free...
 

 

I’m against our selective service registration as well.  We’re not this great bastion of liberty that we like to sing about…

If you can’t get enough of your people to voluntarily defend your country, then your country isn’t worth defending.

[Waingro]

1 hour ago, Smokin said:

Maybe even the US could chip in something eventually when Biden gets back from vacation/cryo treatments.  If Putin wants to dig in, he might find himself in serious trouble at home.

So long as he doesn't withhold $400m worth of anti-tank weaponry to Zelenskyy in exchange for political dirt, it'll be better than last time around. 

[brickhistory]

And yet that aid, to include weapons, got there.  And Russia didn't take any parts of Ukraine then.

Unlike the last time Biden was point man for Ukraine and that administration sent blankets.  That cost Ukraine Crimea.  So far, Biden's given the ok to "a limited incursion." As well as cashing various 10% checks payable to "the big guy" from Hunter's Ukrainian adventures.

So...I'll take what are anti-tank rounds for a $1000 over What are blankies for $500.

Now do Afghanistan withdrawal planning...

Edited February 27, 2022 by brickhistory

[SuperWSO]

6 hours ago, Buddy Spike said:

No, I'm a fighter pilot with a bit of common sense and a healthy dose of skepticism.  Given what you know about the MiG-29 and the Russian Air Force, did such a story really ever make sense? Do you really think a retired Su-27 pilot hopped in a MiG-29 and suddenly had global SA in such an environment and accounted for 69% of the kills?

Stop being so gullible.  

The old timers will follow this, new guys will throw spears at me, but hear me out!

What if the Ghost of Kiev is actually a special ops fighter pilot? You know, your average Delta Force F-22 patch, finally going toe to toe with the Ruskies?

Feel free to discuss amongst yourselves.

[Prozac]

12 minutes ago, SuperWSO said:

The old timers will follow this, new guys will throw spears at me, but hear me out!

What if the Ghost of Kiev is actually a special ops fighter pilot? You know, your average Delta Force F-22 patch, finally going toe to toe with the Ruskies?

Feel free to discuss amongst yourselves.

Damn it. What’s the first rule of fight club? Opsec man! You’ve said too much already. 😎

[Waingro]

14 minutes ago, brickhistory said:

And yet that aid, to include weapons, got there.  And Russia didn't take any parts of Ukraine then.

Unlike the last time Biden was point man for Ukraine and that administration sent blankets.  That cost Ukraine Crimea.  So far, Biden's given the ok to "a limited incursion." As well as cashing various 10% checks payable to "the big guy" from Hunter's Ukrainian adventures.

So...I'll take what are anti-tank rounds for a $1000 over What are blankies for $500.

Now do Afghanistan withdrawal planning...

Go with a source for blankets. Any one source. 

[Sua Sponte]

 

[Lawman]

A whole lot of “Peace Keepers” getting ready to learn what every military professional with experience in it will tell you…. don’t fight in cities unless you absolutely have to.


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[DirkDiggler]

2 minutes ago, Lawman said:

A whole lot of “Peace Keepers” getting ready to learn what every military professional with experience in it will tell you…. don’t fight in cities unless you absolutely have to.


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There’s been a lot of things about this invasion, just from an operational design standpoint, that really haven’t made sense to me.  I can’t figure out if Putin miscalculated that badly in the Ukrainian military capability/will to fight, overestimated Russian military abilities, honestly believed the Ukrainian civilian population would embrace the Russians, or some combination of the above.  Or whether Russian military leadership at the Operational and Tactical level is just that incompetent.

  Either way, I feel like the Russian overmatch in long range fires hasn’t been exploited well (F3 issues maybe?), their sustainment plan is pretty obviously non-existent, and the infantry/armor coordination is falling short.  Also seems like CAS and SEAD plans haven’t been executed well (interdiction maybe a little better, time will tell with regards to Ukrainian anti-armor/aircraft munitions resupply).  It seems like their higher command has decided that Kyiv is the Schwerpunkt (at least for now), but they’re not concentrating combat power there like I’d expect them to.  If the Ukrainian military really plays this right Kyiv and Kharkiv, amongst other cities, are going to turn into a Russian graveyard.

[tac airlifter]

41 minutes ago, Waingro said:

Go with a source for blankets. Any one source. 

“ Poroshenko said blankets and night-vision goggles from the USA are important, "but one cannot win a war with blankets!"” 

USA Today article from 2014.  

[uhhello]

7 minutes ago, DirkDiggler said:

There’s been a lot of things about this invasion, just from an operational design standpoint, that really haven’t made sense to me.  I can’t figure out if Putin miscalculated that badly in the Ukrainian military capability/will to fight, overestimated Russian military abilities, honestly believed the Ukrainian civilian population would embrace the Russians, or some combination of the above.  Or whether Russian military leadership at the Operational and Tactical level is just that incompetent.

  Either way, I feel like the Russian overmatch in long range fires hasn’t been exploited well (F3 issues maybe?), their sustainment plan is pretty obviously non-existent, and the infantry/armor coordination is falling short.  Also seems like CAS and SEAD plans haven’t been executed well (interdiction maybe a little better, time will tell with regards to Ukrainian anti-armor/aircraft munitions resupply).  It seems like their higher command has decided that Kyiv is the Schwerpunkt (at least for now), but they’re not concentrating combat power there like I’d expect them to.  If the Ukrainian military really plays this right Kyiv and Kharkiv, amongst other cities, are going to turn into a Russian graveyard.

Lots of video/photos of captured soldiers/looted equipment with old school analog radios and the like.  Think we might have over-estimated the Russian military as a wholes C2 structure

[uhhello]

I'm thinking we might want to allow him an out and allow his people to handle him directly.  He's getting pretty close to having nothing to lose at this point.  Could get sporty.  

[DirkDiggler]

26 minutes ago, uhhello said:

Lots of video/photos of captured soldiers/looted equipment with old school analog radios and the like.  Think we might have over-estimated the Russian military as a wholes C2 structure

There’s a cynical part of me that wonders if the Russians are utilizing an updated version of the penal battalion concept they used to fairly good effect in WWII.

 Push the conscript heavy/non Russian (Chechen/Donbas/Luhasensk) units forward to soak up the Ukrainian higher end anti-armor munitions (Javelin, NLAW, AT-14 etc), identify Ukrainian force concentrations, then use follow on echelons to overwhelm depleted Ukrainian infantry through massed artillery strikes and tank heavy mechanized units.  Hope that’s not the case.

Edited February 28, 2022 by DirkDiggler
Words are hard when brewery

[BFM this]

 

[Waingro]

41 minutes ago, tac airlifter said:

“ Poroshenko said blankets and night-vision goggles from the USA are important, "but one cannot win a war with blankets!"” 

USA Today article from 2014.  

That's weird, I read the whole article and only found the citation pasted below. I'm sure I missed it, can you point me to the verbiage in the article you posted that said we were providing blankets?

"What the White House offered was a military aid package that will provide body armor, helmets, vehicles, night and thermal vision devices, advanced radios, patrol boats, counter-mortar radars, rations, tents and uniforms."

[Lawman]

There’s a cynical part of me that wonders if the Russians are utilizing an updated version of the penal battalion concept they used to fairly good effect in WWII.
 Push the conscript heavy/non Russian (Chechen/Donbas/Luhasensk) units forward to soak up the Ukrainian higher end anti-armor munitions (Javelin, NLAW, AT-14 etc), identify Ukrainian force concentrations, then use follow on echelons to overwhelm depleted Ukrainian infantry through massed artillery strikes and tank heavy mechanized units.  Hope that’s not the case.

There is nothing about the VDV (Airborne) of their 1st Guards guys that got hammered which would qualify as anything resembling a Penal Battalion.

The Russians losing an AN-26 and IL-76 alone would cut a pretty deep swath across some formations that they cannot readily replicate. Same as burning T-80s being seen in social media feeds.

I’m noticing a lot more of these convoys with problems that to the laymen would be easily missed. Non prime movers with tow bars attached to other trucks, Diesel engined trucks/tracks with smoke colors that should cause alarm just hammering in down the road until they catch fire somewhere later. When you see a whole Mech convoy in what is not your rear area being filmed by somebody with absolutely no sign of any kind of set security or flank guard. Why on earth in a line of tanks at a tactical pause are you sitting turrets all facing forward, or have dismounts pushed out watching your vulnerable fixed force… that says a lot about the mindset of how they thought this was gonna go. It also explains why the Ukrainian military is having such luck with complex ambushes against these elements.


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[Prozac]

3 minutes ago, Waingro said:

That's weird, I read the whole article and only found the citation pasted below. I'm sure I missed it, can you point me to the verbiage in the article you posted that said we were providing blankets?

"What the White House offered was a military aid package that will provide body armor, helmets, vehicles, night and thermal vision devices, advanced radios, patrol boats, counter-mortar radars, rations, tents and uniforms."

Does it really matter? The Obama admin refused lethal aid and, in retrospect, that was a mistake. His successor’s attempt to extort political favors in exchange for weapons was a moral abomination, even if weaponry eventually made it to the country. I watched Mitt Romney do an interview on CNN this morning & even that network’s assessment was that he was right and Obama was wrong in 2012. The point is that there is plenty of blame to go around for how we ended up here. None of it matters at this point. We are at a watershed moment in Europe’s history and indeed the World’s. The only thing that matters now is how we move forward from here. This is bigger than a single president or which party happens to hold power at the moment. The choices we make now will affect multiple administrations for years to come, and we need to implement coherent policies that will withstand and transcend political bickering. 

[hockeydork]

7 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

World's largest cargo aircraft was destroyed during a Russian attack on an airfield, Ukrainian minister says

 

Leave it to those tards of re to destroy an important piece of their own heritage. Sick strike bro. Par for the Russian course

Edited February 28, 2022 by hockeydork

[DirkDiggler]

9 minutes ago, Lawman said:

There is nothing about the VDV (Airborne) of their 1st Guards guys that got hammered which would qualify as anything resembling a Penal Battalion.

The Russians losing an AN-26 and IL-76 alone would cut a pretty deep swath across some formations that they cannot readily replicate. Same as burning T-80s being seen in social media feeds.

I’m noticing a lot more of these convoys with problems that to the laymen would be easily missed. Non prime movers with tow bars attached to other trucks, Diesel engined trucks/tracks with smoke colors that should cause alarm just hammering in down the road until they catch fire somewhere later. When you see a whole Mech convoy in what is not your rear area being filmed by somebody with absolutely no sign of any kind of set security or flank guard. Why on earth in a line of tanks at a tactical pause are you sitting turrets all facing forward, or have dismounts pushed out watching your vulnerable fixed force… that says a lot about the mindset of how they thought this was gonna go. It also explains why the Ukrainian military is having such luck with complex ambushes against these elements.


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Those are fair points.  Some of the stuff you mentioned above are outside my ability to notice (MC pilot who thinks tanks are cool), but the lack of a herringbone formation on a stalled Russian armored column did catch my eye.  Also, several videos of Ukrainian infantry openly blasting Russian tanks operating without infantry support seemed real wrong, even to an AF guy.

  Either way, I’ve been very satisfied at the number of burning Russian tracks I’ve woken up to every morning.

[tac airlifter]

10 minutes ago, Waingro said:

That's weird, I read the whole article and only found the citation pasted below. I'm sure I missed it, can you point me to the verbiage in the article you posted that said we were providing blankets?

Sure, you missed the quote from Ukraine’s president saying he wanted more than blankets from the aide package.  The one I highlighted in my link.

Blankets clearly weren’t all that was in the 2014 non-lethal aide package, but he was dissatisfied with the lack of helpful support which he said included blankets. 

Personally I think we stop nitpicking past mistakes & focus on the present— making policy decisions which maximize dead Russians while staying below the threshold of starting WW3.