The Next President is...

[ClearedHot]

1 hour ago, Prozac said:

I've got to take issue with this one.  I live on one of the bluer states and we've been pretty much open for the majority of Biden's term.  Same is true down south in Cali.  Yeah, we had mask & some vaccination mandates (ex. large events) which might've deterred a few people from participating in the economy, but by and large, the sports stadiums and concerts have been filled for a while now.  And the reality is, despite rhetoric from both the current and last admins, individual states have far more control over this than the Presidential admin.  I agree with much of the rest of your post, but I just don't understand why many continue to argue that we kept the economy shut down for so long when the reality is we were one of the first developed countries to start opening up.

Start to open versus fully open is a big difference, especially when Blue State economies fully opened later and they have a big impact on our economy as a whole.

Not sure which Blue State you live in, assuming Washington or Oregon?  To see the damage look at New York which at Biden's urging kept mandates and closures in place the longest.  I am not 100% but weren't they the last to allow indoor dinning.  I know they were the last to end vaccine mandates to eat inside and that was this past February.

To see how the Blue States performed and their impact on the rest of the economy take a peek at this article by CNN Business (hardly a right wing source).  The punchline is policies in New York took their economy from #3 in the country to #47 and it hurt our nation as a whole.  Keep in mind New York contributes 8% to the U.S. GDP.  Deblasio and Cuomo combined to form a new a new lunacy that saw impacts beyond the city/state...it helped drag down our overall U.S. GDP.

How bad is the Empire State compared to the other 49 states?

In 2019, before Covid hit, New York had the third-strongest economy among US states, lagging only Texas and California. The state's gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic activity — was nearly $1.8 trillion, on par with the GDP of Italy. More than $1 trillion of that came from economic activity in New York City. The state contributed more than 8% to America's overall GDP that year.

 

New York's GDP contracted by 5.9% last year, a bigger decline than the total US GDP suffered, putting it at No. 47 out of all 50 states for economic growth.

 

Why New York lags behind

more severe lockdown protocols than in many other parts of the country.

 

And the challenges don't end there: One of the components of the Back-to-Normal Index that holds New York back the most is the shortage of restaurant-goers, according to Colyar. The state is still 40% below its pre-pandemic, eat-in diner volume, while the nation as a whole is down only 13%.

 

 

[GrndPndr]

The chuckle at the end really finishes this one up for me:

 

[ClearedHot]

53 minutes ago, GrndPndr said:

The chuckle at the end really finishes this one up for me:

 

Shameful, those around him and in the cabinet have a DUTY to step forward and say something.  Dude is cognitively impaired, we all see it.  I don't want Harris as a President but this is getting scary.

[HeloDude]

3 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Shameful, those around him and in the cabinet have a DUTY to step forward and say something.  Dude is cognitively impaired, we all see it.  I don't want Harris as a President but this is getting scary.

It’s bad.  What’s also bad is that he said he’s not concerned about a recession following the news of negative economic growth.

The midterms will be very interesting…I think it’s obvious that the GOP will have a good night, the question is how good.

[08Dawg]

8 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Shameful, those around him and in the cabinet have a DUTY to step forward and say something.  Dude is cognitively impaired, we all see it.  I don't want Harris as a President but this is getting scary.

I really think the Dem’s plan in ‘20 was to run Biden as a front until he either suffered a medical emergency or was declared unfit to serve, and then Kamala would come sweeping in to finish his term, then run for two of her own, effectively keeping her in power for a decade. Now that she’s proven unpopular and incapable, the puppet masters in the DNC are left wondering what to do. 

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, 08Dawg said:

I really think the Dem’s plan in ‘20 was to run Biden as a front until he either suffered a medical emergency or was declared unfit to serve, and then Kamala would come sweeping in to finish his term, then run for two of her own, effectively keeping her in power for a decade. Now that she’s proven unpopular and incapable, the puppet masters in the DNC are left wondering what to do. 

My money is on Pete Buttigieg being their nominee in 2024.  He’s the only person who makes sense in the eyes of the left.

[TreeA10]

14 hours ago, HeloDude said:

It’s bad.  What’s also bad is that he said he’s not concerned about a recession following the news of negative economic growth.

He has never had an original thought in his political life and parrots what he is told to say. Combine this with the obvious signs of senility and I'm guessing his awareness of the economic condition of the country is close to zero. 

[guineapigfury]

1 hour ago, TreeA10 said:

He has never had an original thought in his political life and parrots what he is told to say. Combine this with the obvious signs of senility and I'm guessing his awareness of the economic condition of the country is close to zero. 

Joe Biden has made a half-century career of carefully following the consensus in the Democratic party.  There's good analysis in the article I've linked.  For the highlights check the section titled "Biden positions himself in the center of the Democratic Party" https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-pandemic-has-pushed-biden-to-the-left-how-far-will-he-go/

[dream big]

On 4/29/2022 at 11:38 AM, GrndPndr said:

The chuckle at the end really finishes this one up for me:

 

Finishing sentences is tough, but no mean tweets!!  For real guys..who is running the country? It’s not him, it sure as hell isn’t crackles, who is running the country? The lack of answer to that question should worry anyone regardless of what side of the aisle you are on. 

[ClearedHot]

Hunter Biden Laptop Whistleblower Sues Schiff, CNN, The Daily Beast , Politico

[ClearedHot]

On 1/12/2022 at 7:04 PM, nsplayr said:

Many people that entered the Capitol on Jan 6th 2021 have already pleaded guilty of crimes, and I at least have a pretty clear memory of who was encouraging that angry mob to head down to the Capitol and take action in the first place.

I am really looking forward to the May 3rd Insurrection hearings and prosecutions.

[kaputt]

Regardless of how one feels on abortion itself, this will likely strategically backfire on Republicans/Conservatives. 
 

Roe v Wade to the left is like the second amendment to the right, and all the stops are going to come out to spin this against conservatives. Also many moderates in this country were fine with the status quo. Look at the polling, 60% of Americans did not want to see Roe v Wade overturned, despite what their personal views on abortion were. 
 

All the shit going wrong in this country right now and reversing Roe v Wade is what conservatives are going to hang their hat on as a midterm approaches. Absolutely moronic; thank you Bible Belt southern states (and I live in one), for bringing this to the forefront at such a crucial time. 

[Guest nsplayr]

32 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

I am really looking forward to the April 3 Insurrection hearings and prosecutions.

I’m not quite sure what happened on April 3rd, but ok 😅

*If* hypothetical protestors do storm federal buildings, beat up cops and attempt to overturn the working of our government via violence, I’ll be first in line to condemn them! I would not say what Newsome said, next time @ him rather than me.

But none of that has happened; Jan 6th, 2021 did happen, and rightly some of those who took part are now being held accountable.

As far as the future goes, who knows, but it never fails that…

[FLEA]

16 minutes ago, kaputt said:

Regardless of how one feels on abortion itself, this will likely strategically backfire on Republicans/Conservatives. 
 

Roe v Wade to the left is like the second amendment to the right, and all the stops are going to come out to spin this against conservatives. Also many moderates in this country were fine with the status quo. Look at the polling, 60% of Americans did not want to see Roe v Wade overturned, despite what their personal views on abortion were. 
 

All the shit going wrong in this country right now and reversing Roe v Wade is what conservatives are going to hang their hat on as a midterm approaches. Absolutely moronic; thank you Bible Belt southern states (and I live in one), for bringing this to the forefront at such a crucial time. 

Sort of yes and no. It's not good for conservatives, but this wasn't really part of their strategy. It's a SCOTUS decision and SCOTUS doesn't get to plan the timing of their decisions. So while the timing is unfortunate, amounting it to their strategy really isn't. The Conservative side of SCOTUS could have tried to rule in a different direction but that creates more layers of stare decices that has to be cut through. They also couldn't have controlled the deliberate leak of a draft ruling, which supposedly is disinformation since we are calling leaks that make things look bad disinformation now, I dunno? 

[tac airlifter]

1 hour ago, nsplayr said:

*If* hypothetical protestors do storm federal buildings, beat up cops and attempt to overturn the working of our government via violence, I’ll be first in line to condemn them! 

But none of that has happened

What are your feelings on BLM riots & ANTIFA attacks on federal buildings in Portland?

 

[HeloDude]

4 hours ago, kaputt said:

Regardless of how one feels on abortion itself, this will likely strategically backfire on Republicans/Conservatives.  

Do you think the GOP will take the majority in the House? 

[pawnman]

1 minute ago, HeloDude said:

Do you think the GOP will take the majority in the House? 

I thought there was no way they wouldn't.  But apparently SCOTUS found the one way to jeopardize it.

[ClearedHot]

4 hours ago, nsplayr said:

I’m not quite sure what happened on April 3rd, but ok 😅

*If* hypothetical protestors do storm federal buildings, beat up cops and attempt to overturn the working of our government via violence, I’ll be first in line to condemn them! I would not say what Newsome said, next time @ him rather than me.

But none of that has happened; Jan 6th, 2021 did happen, and rightly some of those who took part are now being held accountable.

As far as the future goes, who knows, but it never fails that…

I believe the draft was dated April 3rd...but ok it was released on May 3rd and now we have threats and endorsement from a sitting Governor to fight and burn it down...

So to be clear its cool when BLM and Antifa actually do storm and burn down government buildings or do you condemn them?  Also, you can threaten violence or say fight like hell and it is cool if it come from a liberal.

Thanks, it all makes sense now.

[Guest nsplayr]

4 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

What are your feelings on BLM riots & ANTIFA attacks on federal buildings in Portland?

Strongly negative. Letting those Portland protests go on for so long was an embarrassment. Go get a job you dirty hippies!

[Guest nsplayr]

2 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

So to be clear its cool when BLM and Antifa actually do storm and burn down government buildings or do you condemn them?  Also, you can threaten violence or say fight like hell and it is cool if it come from a liberal.

Thanks, it all makes sense now.

See above; no. I don’t support violent protests or riots, I don’t support storming government buildings in order to try to change policy, and I don’t support political leaders inflaming their followers with fighting words that drive more violent action.

I’m assuming you feel similarly about the Bundy Standoff in 2016 and the Jan 6, 2021 insurrection & associated statements and in some cases outright participation from GOP political leaders? I genuinely hope so!

Edited May 4, 2022 by nsplayr

[ClearedHot]

3 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

See above; no. I don’t support violent protests or riots, I don’t support storming government buildings in order to try to change policy, and I don’t support political leaders inflaming their followers with fighting words that drive more violent action.

I’m assuming you feel similarly about the Buddy Standoff in 2016 and the Jan 6, 2021 insurrection & associated statements and in some cases outright participation from GOP political leaders? I genuinely hope so!

You don't support but do you condemn BLM and Antifa?  Should they be prosecuted with the same veracity for burning government buildings?

Honestly I didn't follow the details of the Buddy Stand off but I will take your word for it. 

[Guest nsplayr]

14 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

You don't support but do you condemn BLM and Antifa?  Should they be prosecuted with the same veracity for burning government buildings?

Am I under arrest officer or am I free to go? Dissecting words here like I’m on trial, good grief.

Yes, I, nsplayr of BO.net do hereby once and for all condemn violent protests/riots/insurrections that damage government (or private!) buildings, hurt cops (or innocent bystanders!) and especially which attempt to change government policy via violence, regardless of who participates.

In case it was for some reason unclear based on me previously saying I feel “strongly negative” toward these events and “don’t support” them 🙄

Do you feel the same about Jan 6th, 2021? How about the Bundy Standoff? I’m mainly talking there about the 2016 incident in Oregon. How about bombing abortion clinics, the Oklahoma City federal building, or the Nashville Christmas Day bombing?

My take: they’re all bad! Violence in the name of domestic political aims or insane political conspiracy theories is bad and people who do it are bad and should be arrested, prosecuted, and convicted if guilty.

[ClearedHot]

3 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Am I under arrest officer or am I free to go? Dissecting words here like I’m on trial, good grief.

Yes, I, nsplayr of BO.net do hereby once and for all condemn violent protests/riots/insurrections that damage government (or private!) buildings, hurt cops (or innocent bystanders!) and especially which attempt to change government policy via violence, regardless of who participates.

In case it was for some reason unclear based on me previously saying I feel “strongly negative” toward these events and “don’t support” them 🙄

Do you feel the same about Jan 6th, 2021? How about the Bundy Standoff? I’m mainly talking there about the 2016 incident in Oregon. How about bombing abortion clinics, the Oklahoma City federal building, or the Nashville Christmas Day bombing?

My take: they’re all bad! Violence in the name of domestic political aims or insane political conspiracy theories is bad and people who do it are bad and should be arrested, prosecuted, and convicted if guilty.

Good job, see that wasn't so hard.

[slc]

No, I'm sure it actually was...

[Lord Ratner]

On 4/28/2022 at 10:42 AM, ClearedHot said:

While I don't lay all of the blame for our current situation at the feet of the Biden Administration, I think four big factors would have been very different had Trump won the election.

Energy costs - Whatever you think about pipelines and the actual utility of the Keystone Pipeline, the Biden administration launched multiple executive orders at the energy industry which have most certainly impacted the price and availability of oil.  The narratives are all over the place but when you attack pipelines, refineries and drilling, you are going to impact the price of oil.  The administration is attempting to spin many of these issues like the 9,000 unused leases on federal land without admitting they are holding up many of those leases through lawsuits.  Both sides are guilty and there are other factors like Putin going into Ukraine but ultimately Biden's policy has caused the price of oil to nearly doubled since he took office and most of that run up occurred well before Russia launched their attack. 

Continuing stimulus - Obviously we needed stimulus and support during a pandemic, but Biden continued to dump gasoline on what most knew was a raging fire.  $1.9T in relief and payments kept people out of the workforce WAY longer than was needed.  All that extra cash without workers available to produce goods caused a huge bubble of demand to surge through the economy.  While the supply chain issues are not entirely Biden's fault, some of that blame does fall on the DNC and their unions, just look at the situation at the Long Beach Port.  Crane operators making $250,000 a year refusing to work overtime in an emergency, refusing to allow non-union workers to help in an emergency and refusing to surge the port to 24 hour a day operations.  I honestly think Trump would have federalized that operation, at least temporarily.  I hope we learned our lesson on this one.

COVID Lockdown Policy - Biden and his Uber left folks kept things closed WAY too long.  The implications have had second and third order effects all across the economy.

Fed Policy - While the Fed is meant to be an independent body they do seem to follow the lead of the President.  They certainly did under Trump.  The Fed COMPLETELY missed the boat on interest rates.  They should have been slowly raising rates a year ago but they waited on perception of Biden and partially in response surging energy prices.  Now that they are late to the game they are trying to fix everything all at once.  When you signal four consecutive 50 basis point raises, the possibility of a 75 point basis raise, openly say interest rates should equal or exceed inflation and out right say the interest rate raises should be "front loaded", you again crush the economy.  Most people don't realize the impact of increasing interest rates.  Look at the report released today showing 1.4% GDP contraction, if you dig into the numbers you will see a decrease in home sales of over 1.5%.  That will further crush the economy as fewer people buy appliances, building materials and other home upgrades.  As my wealth advisor put it yesterday, they are going from creating inflation to completely putting out any fire related to the economy.  As a frame of reference the U.S. Economy went from 6.9% in Q4 2021 to -1.4% in Q1 2022.

Got to push back on you here. When the FED tried raising the interest rates back in 2017-2018, Trump lost his mind and was publicly excoriating Powell everyday as the stock market slid. I don't think there's a chance in hell that he would suddenly find God on sound fiscal policy, which was always a weakness for him. It is certainly possible that the inflation factor would change Trump's calculus, but we certainly have no evidence to suggest that.

 

I also think Trump would have pushed for more stimulus, though not as much as the democrats. One of the biggest drivers of inflation in this economy was the direct payments to consumers from the government, and that part of stimulus I think Trump would have wholeheartedly endorsed.

 

Agree on energy policy, agree on covid policy.