Investment showdown -- beyond the Roth, SDP, & TSP

[Swizzle]

On 2/22/2025 at 3:48 PM, BuddhaSixFour said:

It’s better than that if you tack in say $2.9M for the current value of the retirement and disability (current cost of an annuity that pays the same amount for a 49-years old male), plus maybe another $150k in untaxed income. I get around $230k/year presuming he’s 49 and makes it to his mid 80’s. Not shabby at all. 

That $2.9M is unrealized. Instead it's doled-out month by month till death or SBP expiration. Until then it's all bird in bush potential. Live long, that retirement ages well and its FV increases over time with COLA - your body won't. 

Edited June 17 by Swizzle
Sp

[Swizzle]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

Friday was rough on the S&P, nearly a trillion ($900B), in market cap was wiped out.

However, pretty good if you were/are a bear.

[BuddhaSixFour]

17 minutes ago, Swizzle said:

That $2.9M is unrealized. Instead it's doled-out month by month till death or SBP expiration. Until then it's all bird in bush potential. Live long, that retirement ages well and its FV increases over time woth COLA - your body won't. 

Thats why I used the current price of an equivalent annuity. Thats exactly what gets accounted for.

[arg]

Dang! I need to sell more cows.

[disgruntledemployee]

New investment strategy, TACO.  Recent history checks, so far.  I like the call sign, tho.

https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/taco-wall-street-mocks-trump-with-4-letter-code-to-call-bets-against-him/

Edited May 28 by disgruntledemployee

[Standby]

Anybody selling off right now?

[Lord Ratner]

On 6/16/2025 at 8:40 PM, Standby said:

Anybody selling off right now?

Yup. I've trimmed back a bunch of my uranium and nuclear stuff as it's gone crazy. I'll buy back into it after it corrects. It'll be a long-term holding but you can't ignore a crazy spike like this. I don't think I'm going to cut purecycle at all, just because it's got such a long-term growth story ahead of it. Plus it seems silly to bail out now that druckenmiller is involved. 

Shorting some of the more meme-y stocks, but I don't pick any myself; I have a newsletter I follow. I'm thinking we have a 5 to 10% correction here between now and the end of July, then the rocket ship takes off again into the fall. Sometime in late 2025 or early 2026, shit hits the fan. Unemployment is going to be the last shoe to drop, but if you look at current unemployment and add in new gig workers, the numbers already look pretty bad. The housing market is already shaky, but it needs some forced-selling to light the fuse. 

 

Of course the only question, as it has been for the last 15 years, is what the FED will do. 

 

[Springer]

On 6/16/2025 at 8:40 PM, Standby said:

Anybody selling off right now?

Been in CD's last couple of years cept my play $$$ account.  Preservation of cash.

[ClearedHot]

On 5/28/2025 at 9:16 AM, disgruntledemployee said:

New investment strategy, TACO.  Recent history checks, so far.  I like the call sign, tho.

https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/taco-wall-street-mocks-trump-with-4-letter-code-to-call-bets-against-him/

Sooo he didn't chicken out.

And, all the prognostications about oil skyrocketing...well I hope you didn't bet on that.  My portfolio was up a modest 1% today...that was after selling some things to make cash (just bought another piece of property).

 

[disgruntledemployee]

I'm not a futures investor.  But I'll say this, war is a weird animal in the stock market these days.

[ClearedHot]

On 6/24/2025 at 11:19 PM, disgruntledemployee said:

I'm not a futures investor.  But I'll say this, war is a weird animal in the stock market these days.

I don't follow futures either but you can play the game without chasing the actual product by playing the tools and enablers.  My wife does a lot of research and leading up the election had a list of energy enabling companies that support exploration and production of energy sources.  While oil is volatile with conflict, the longer-term trend based on Trump's policy is obviously drill baby drill.  One example is the Weir Group ADR -a Scottish based engineering firm that supports the oil fields.  We've made 25% on that investment year to date.

[Day Man]

2 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

 While oil is volatile with conflict, the longer-term trend based on Trump's policy is obviously drill baby drill.  

is it though?

https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/

[ClearedHot]

18 minutes ago, Day Man said:

is it though?

https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/

Yes, his policy is just that.  

If you think this chart tells the entire story....well I imply can't help you.  There are so many layers and I would hope you know the price of oil is based largely on speculation and opinion.  The impact of Trump saying those words after the election was enough to start the downward tend on the PPB.  Also, Biden did a LOT Of damage with regulation and slowed approvals on applications.  That will take time to undo and rebuild.

Finally, while I think Trump wants us to be energy independent, he knew it would take time to increase U.S. production.  His immediate goal was to get the PPB down as close as possible to $60...that is what fuels the U.S. economy.  Everyone focuses on the investment deal he made with the Saudis, but little attention is paid to him getting OPEC to drastically increasing their production.  In early April (just as financial markets were reeling from the trade war), the producer group announced it would be hiking May output by 411,000 barrels per day—three times the volume it had previously publicized. In May, it doubled down, maintaining the faster supply rate for June.

[disgruntledemployee]

3 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

I don't follow futures either but you can play the game without chasing the actual product by playing the tools and enablers.  My wife does a lot of research and leading up the election had a list of energy enabling companies that support exploration and production of energy sources.  While oil is volatile with conflict, the longer-term trend based on Trump's policy is obviously drill baby drill.  One example is the Weir Group ADR -a Scottish based engineering firm that supports the oil fields.  We've made 25% on that investment year to date.

True.  I did that during covid with Novavax, which had a mini Gamestop short vs hedges fight brew up the day I was doing tax stuff and saw the price jump.  I sold and made some beer money.  Pure luck on that.

Lithium is going big in our backyard via the Smackover Formation which some believe will lead to a 2nd "oil boom" like event for southern AR.  But the moment these things occur, jumping in right away usually means buying too high.  That and AR has yet to negotiate a deal on royalties, etc. with any of the prime players.  So I'll just try to pay attention to Gov Sanders investment portfolio because no way does she not get rich off this thing.  And the support companies that really put the infrastructure down are definitely ones to take a look at.

Edited July 2 by disgruntledemployee

[Day Man]

32 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Finally, while I think Trump wants us to be energy independent, he knew it would take time to increase U.S. production.  His immediate goal was to get the PPB down as close as possible to $60...that is what fuels the U.S. economy.  

Why would any O&G company 'drill baby drill' just to lose money (esp with the market volatility brought on by tariffs, TACO, Iran, etc)?

Quote

The average breakeven price was $62/b in the Permian Midland Basin and $64/b in the Permian Delaware Basin, the two largest basins in the Permian, according to data from a Dallas Fed Energy survey

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65024#:~:text=The average breakeven price was,a Dallas Fed Energy survey.

@ecugringo care to chime in here?

[ClearedHot]

They won't now which is some ways is great for long-term U.S. energy security because we can use these resources in the future.  However, they will prime the pumps so to speak and get licensing approvals to use at their discretion now that the regulation is removed.  These companies play long-ball.

In the short-term they will seek to undo things Biden did:

Banned future offshore drilling in certain areas: In early 2025, President Biden used executive authority to permanently withdraw over 625 million acres of federal waters from future oil and gas leasing. This withdrawal covers areas including the entire Atlantic and Pacific coasts, the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, and portions of Alaska's Northern Bering Sea.

Strengthened environmental regulations: The administration implemented a rule in 2024 requiring new offshore leaseholders to submit archaeological reports before drilling, placing a burden on operators, especially small producers.

Cancelled or blocked leases: The Biden administration has revoked mineral leases, opted against issuing permits on existing fossil fuel leases, and canceled some lease sales. This includes cancelling oil leases in an Alaskan wildlife refuge and blocking new drilling in millions of acres in the state.
Paused new oil and gas leases on public lands: Early in his term, Biden suspended new oil and gas leases on public lands for 60 days to review the program. 

Paused new oil and gas leases on public lands: Early in his term, Biden suspended new oil and gas leases on public lands for 60 days to review the program.

[Day Man]

let me get this straight...

- platforms on "drill baby, drill", unleashing America's energy

- got OPEC to drastically increase their production (thus lowering prices)

- targets oil prices to a point where no one wants to drill

- undoes previous environmental protections (so companies could theoretically drill?)

and still, drill count is lower than under biden. what was the goal again? concept of a plan?

[HeloDude]

When you don’t have a good argument, you then go to vulgar name calling.  

[StoleIt]

As of July 2, 2025: According to the Buffett Indicator, the Stock Market is Significantly Overvalued. Based on today's updated data, the Market Cap to GDP Ratio is 207.4%.As of today, the Total Market Index is at $62,126 billion, which is about 207.4% of the last reported GDP.

 

Wasn't familiar with the "Buffett Indicator" before...but, thoughts?

[M2]

2 hours ago, HeloDude said:

When you don’t have a good argument, you then go to vulgar name calling.  

ADMIN NOTE:  I know this topic can cause some to get emotionally charged, but personal attacks and/or name calling won't be tolerated under any circumstances. 

I've edited one post because of it, and will taken even greater action if anyone else fails to abide by the rules after this warning.  

Feel free to contact me via a PM if there are any questions.

[Day Man]

To clarify, I was referring to 47, not @ClearedHot 🍻

[bfargin]

Anybody else jump on Platinum when it was down in the 900s per ounce? I didn't go big, but bought 20 ounces for a goof and am about to sell at over 1,400 an ounce. Platinum seems to be more all over the place compared to silver and gold which both tend to trend up over time (long times usually).

[Biff_T]

Dramatic moment Sean 'Diddy' Combs fell to his knees after learning his fate - BBC News https://share.google/WvfPxtFb9BOSeUwb5

I normally don't have anything to say about stocks but I think baby oil is going to get hot pretty soon.  

[ClearedHot]

22 hours ago, Day Man said:

let me get this straight...

- platforms on "drill baby, drill", unleashing America's energy

- got OPEC to drastically increase their production (thus lowering prices)

- targets oil prices to a point where no one wants to drill

- undoes previous environmental protections (so companies could theoretically drill?)

and still, drill count is lower than under biden. what was the goal again? concept of a plan?

Come on man, you are trying to over simply and using poor metrics.  Counting oil wells....seriously.  Follow the real numbers brother.

Unleashing America's energy takes time and perception plays a very key factor in prices.  I think Trump and most reasoned economists recognize oil is the key to our economy.  It is fairly obvious that Trump won on the economy and the border.  Please tell me you recognize the rampant inflation we saw during Biden's term was partially caused by the price of oil.  The average per-gallon gasoline price during Biden's tenure so far has been $3.53, compared to $2.46 during Trump's term.  Gas prices reached a record high of $5.01 per gallon in June 2022 during Biden's presidency.  Knowing the economy needed relief I do believe his strategy was to convince OPEC to increase production because that was the fastest relief valve to lower the cost and thus impact all sectors of the economy.

Oil Production Under President Trump: Understanding the Real Metrics

There’s been a lot of debate about U.S. oil production during the Trump administration—but much of it misses the mark by relying on incomplete or outdated metrics. Let’s set the record straight with a clearer view of how energy policy, technology, and time all play a role.

1. Oil Production Lags Policy

First, it’s important to understand that oil production doesn’t respond instantly to policy changes. Decisions around drilling, leasing, and exploration approvals often take years to show up in actual production numbers. Regulatory reform, permitting processes, infrastructure investments, and investor confidence all influence the pace at which policy becomes production. Much of the increase in output during President Trump’s term reflected both momentum from prior projects and a policy environment that supported continued expansion.

2. Counting Oil Wells Is Misleading

It’s tempting to gauge the health of the oil industry by simply counting the number of operating wells—but that’s a false metric. The U.S. oil and gas sector has undergone a dramatic technological shift over the past decade, moving from vertical drilling to more productive horizontal drilling techniques.

To put it in perspective:

• In 2014, the U.S. had over 1,031,000 operating oil and natural gas wells.

• By 2021, that number fell to about 916,000.

• Yet during that same time, horizontal wells surged from 99,000 to over 166,000—a 67% increase.

Horizontal wells are far more efficient and yield significantly higher output per well than traditional vertical wells. So even with fewer total wells, production has continued to climb.

3. The Result: U.S. Oil Production Nearly Doubled

Between 2014 and 2025, U.S. oil production nearly doubled, thanks in large part to advances in drilling technology and supportive policies that unlocked shale resources and incentivized development. The Trump administration played a key role in sustaining and accelerating this growth through deregulatory efforts and an energy-first agenda.

Bottom Line

Measuring U.S. energy output isn’t as simple as counting rigs or wells. To truly understand what drives production, you have to look at the whole picture: long-term investment, regulatory policy, technology adoption, and market dynamics. Under President Trump, the U.S. oil sector benefited from a favorable policy climate that helped unleash innovation and investment—leading to historic levels of production, even as the total number of wells declined.

[Day Man]

thanks for the response (even if you just copy and pasted from chat GPT)...BTW you still have to drill horizontal wells, and Biden had to deal with the COVID fallout which (IMO) had a larger impact on inflation.