Investment showdown -- beyond the Roth, SDP, & TSP

[Swizzle]

On 2/22/2025 at 3:48 PM, BuddhaSixFour said:

It’s better than that if you tack in say $2.9M for the current value of the retirement and disability (current cost of an annuity that pays the same amount for a 49-years old male), plus maybe another $150k in untaxed income. I get around $230k/year presuming he’s 49 and makes it to his mid 80’s. Not shabby at all. 

That $2.9M is unrealized. Instead it's doled-out month by month till death or SBP expiration. Until then it's all bird in bush potential. Live long, that retirement ages well and its FV increases over time with COLA - your body won't. 

Edited Tuesday at 03:03 AM by Swizzle
Sp

[Swizzle]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

Friday was rough on the S&P, nearly a trillion ($900B), in market cap was wiped out.

However, pretty good if you were/are a bear.

[BuddhaSixFour]

17 minutes ago, Swizzle said:

That $2.9M is unrealized. Instead it's doled-out month by month till death or SBP expiration. Until then it's all bird in bush potential. Live long, that retirement ages well and its FV increases over time woth COLA - your body won't. 

Thats why I used the current price of an equivalent annuity. Thats exactly what gets accounted for.

[arg]

Dang! I need to sell more cows.

[disgruntledemployee]

New investment strategy, TACO.  Recent history checks, so far.  I like the call sign, tho.

https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/taco-wall-street-mocks-trump-with-4-letter-code-to-call-bets-against-him/

Edited May 28 by disgruntledemployee

[Standby]

Anybody selling off right now?

[Lord Ratner]

On 6/16/2025 at 8:40 PM, Standby said:

Anybody selling off right now?

Yup. I've trimmed back a bunch of my uranium and nuclear stuff as it's gone crazy. I'll buy back into it after it corrects. It'll be a long-term holding but you can't ignore a crazy spike like this. I don't think I'm going to cut purecycle at all, just because it's got such a long-term growth story ahead of it. Plus it seems silly to bail out now that druckenmiller is involved. 

Shorting some of the more meme-y stocks, but I don't pick any myself; I have a newsletter I follow. I'm thinking we have a 5 to 10% correction here between now and the end of July, then the rocket ship takes off again into the fall. Sometime in late 2025 or early 2026, shit hits the fan. Unemployment is going to be the last shoe to drop, but if you look at current unemployment and add in new gig workers, the numbers already look pretty bad. The housing market is already shaky, but it needs some forced-selling to light the fuse. 

 

Of course the only question, as it has been for the last 15 years, is what the FED will do.