The WOKE Thread (Merged from WTF?)

[FlyingWolf]

44 minutes ago, brawnie said:

It’s literally a conspiracy theory...

 

...And, in reality, for decision making it literally shouldn’t matter how people died when it comes to effects...

Not really, I recommend you read up on the concept of Systems Thinking...

 

...Could not be more wrong; how people died/are harmed, whether directly from the disease or our reaction to it, makes all the difference when it comes to decision making and the effects of the disease.

[Negatory]

Okay, how about it's just a unproven theory that the government as a whole (or is it just the liberal portions, i'm not hip and read in) is conspiring to present skewed results? Does that work?

Explain how in systems thinking - which asserts that one can't look at individual things like coronavirus specific death tolls and instead should look at the combination of effects in the whole system - discounts anything I said previously. I am not following your logic. COVID proves that isolation thinking - i.e. personal liberty over all else - is ineffective.

https://www.thinknpc.org/blog/covid-19-means-systems-thinking-is-no-longer-optional/

[FlyingWolf]

30 minutes ago, brawnie said:

Okay, how about it's just a unproven theory that the government as a whole (or is it just the liberal portions, i'm not hip and read in) is conspiring to present skewed results? Does that work?

Explain how in systems thinking - which asserts that one can't look at individual things like coronavirus specific death tolls and instead should look at the combination of effects in the whole system - discounts anything I said previously. I am not following your logic. COVID proves that isolation thinking - i.e. personal liberty over all else - is ineffective.

https://www.thinknpc.org/blog/covid-19-means-systems-thinking-is-no-longer-optional/

Unproven theory that large-scale, statistically signifcant, imprecise characterisations occur, yes. No conspiracy required.

Systems do not require conscious coordination with ill intent to deliver poor results. They are often way more complicated than our monkey brains give them credit for. Unintended consequences and all.

Sure, I acknowledge that pandemics are a particularly difficult situation for societies that value liberty. Which is a good point to emphasize, and often a root issue in disagreements: how highly do each of us value liberty vs security?

[waveshaper]

Here's a snapshot on how Michigan is tabulating the states total monthly deaths by select medical/health related causes. This chart also includes all COVID classified deaths since March 2020. I'm not sure how the other 49 states collect and publish this type data but for simple minded folks like me it's easy to see that COVID is probably the main reason there's been a spike in the Michigan death count since March 2020.

"Number of Deaths by Select Causes of Death by Month, Michigan Occurences": https://www.mdch.state.mi.us/osr/Provisional/MontlyDxCounts.asp

Year of Death	Month of Death	Number of Deaths
		Total	Cancer	Heart Disease	COPD	Stroke	Pneumonia & Flu	Septicemia	COVID-19
2019	January	8,490	798	2,274	486	443	176	107	–
2019	February	7,712	665	2,064	452	386	144	93	–
2019	March	8,582	777	2,230	522	479	197	88	–
2019	April	7,987	719	1,984	510	422	203	117	–
2019	May	8,164	795	2,090	486	422	140	78	–
2019	June	7,711	729	1,971	468	374	116	90	–
2019	July	7,994	836	2,002	456	413	109	93	–
2019	August	7,811	797	1,948	431	403	89	93	–
2019	September	7,734	770	1,884	444	406	109	87	–
2019	October	8,292	862	2,112	472	446	100	86	–
2019	November	8,395	729	2,196	462	424	122	106	–
2019	December	8,777	861	2,394	512	474	136	96	–
2020	January	8,932	857	2,224	607	512	181	116	–
2020	February	8,227	708	2,148	497	478	229	111	–
2020	March	9,635	807	2,386	578	495	300	126	461
2020	April	13,031	753	2,535	544	505	254	125	3,197
2020	May	9,284	750	2,024	404	473	132	87	1,152
2020	June	8,163	773	1,883	381	429	90	89	249
2020	July	8,221	757	1,876	410	400	70	110	132
2020	August	2,472	86	243	62	67	9	11	42

[busdriver]

Every single data set surrounding COVID has garbage in it.  I would bet large sums of money that the death count is the least noisy.

That said, it's not a super useful piece of info unless you do something with it.  Unless of course your entire goal is to scream about the really really big number and peddle fear for advertising dollars and political gain.

Here's the part that a lot of people don't seem to grasp: it doesn't have to be super deadly to kill a shit load of people, it just has to infect a lot.  If the regular old flu infected 50% of the population, that's over 220K dead in the US.

[brabus]

Direct from CDC website: “For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.”

94% of COVID deaths in our country are with underlying health conditions. So when we say 180k died from Covid, what they should really say is 10.8k have died from COVID, and 169.2k died from a combo (combo because the avg is 2.6 additional factors) of pneumonia/flu, heart disease, hypertensive disease, etc. and covid was a possible CF to some extent (but not a RC/sole cause). the hype about how it’s “deadly” to healthy people, etc. and we had to destroy our economies, way of life, harm our children, etc. because of it is gross negligence. 
 

There are sensible ways to reduce risk and address problems, and then there is lose your shit and emotionally freak out, then hide under a rock until the bogey man goes away. The media and others have pushed millions of willing Americans into the latter group. This whole thing is like a FLUG-ee with an 8 ship aborting and calling mission canx because there’s a single flanker 100nm away.

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by brabus

[Negatory]

38 minutes ago, brabus said:

There are sensible ways to reduce risk and address problems

What would you recommend?

[Sim]

[SocialD]

I'd recommend we get back to a daily lives.  Wear our masks, wash our hands and keep on, keeping on.  If you have 2 or more the "comorbid" conditions then you probably need to be more cautious and stay home.  That doesn't mean we all stay home and be scared of our own shadows.  Despite wearing my mask/washing my hands, as well as everyone around me doing he same thanks to the current rules in place, I currently have the rona.  A few days of mild body aches and a mild fever and I'm back to normal, the same for my 2 other squadron mates who currently have it.  No matter what you do we'll likely all end up with it sooner or later.  Let's stop driving our economy into the ground over this thing and get the train back on the tracks.  If someone loses their job, their home or their marriage and commits suicide, do they get counted in the covid deaths?  

Edited August 31, 2020 by SocialD

[Negatory]

They get counted in excess deaths, which is why I think it’s probably a better metric when it comes to total impact.

And if the disease still got to you with restrictions (probably via asymptomatic transmission), how can we reasonably ask for those at risk to avoid infection? They still have to get food, go to the doctor, fix their homes, interact with those that care for them. Unfortunately, there is no such thing anymore as a self-sufficient man; everyone is very interconnected.

[SocialD]

31 minutes ago, brawnie said:

They get counted in excess deaths, which is why I think it’s probably a better metric when it comes to total impact.

And if the disease still got to you with restrictions (probably via asymptomatic transmission), how can we reasonably ask for those at risk to avoid infection? They still have to get food, go to the doctor, fix their homes, interact with those that care for them. Unfortunately, there is no such thing anymore as a self-sufficient man; everyone is very interconnected.

 

Well we unfortunately got it while TDY to a known rona hotspot, because we're "essential," due to an upcoming deployment.  Truth is, we actually likely got it from a fellow squadron mate that thought what he was feeling was so mild that he didn't think it was actually rona.  But I digress....  So how long do we keep this up?  One month?  One year?  One decade?  What if we don't get a vaccine, we just do this for the rest of our existence?  How about we do what some of our local places are doing...providing shopping/office hours (or days) for those at a heightened risk.  Point is, a vast majority of us will be just fine and can continue to keep things going.  This isn't the military, you don't punished everyone just because one person shits their pants.

 

Funny you bring up being self sufficient.  Thanks to all this shit, the main (big name chain) grocery store in my home county just shut down.  I'm from the sticks and this was pretty much the sole source of groceries for the entire county.  It was the only place in the county that had the option for "click list" level of shopping...meaning they could order online, pull up, people load groceries in their trunk and leave.  Now they'll all have to either get their groceries from the super expensive "corner store," or drive 30 miles out of the county to next best option.  Great so now, not only does the next town over have it's locals shopping their, they'll have a whole other counties worth of people going there...social distancing shouldn't be a problem at all...  

Edited August 31, 2020 by SocialD

[GrndPndr]

2 hours ago, SocialD said:

<Snip>Wear our masks, wash our hands and keep on, keeping on.  If you have 2 or more the "comorbid" conditions then you probably need to be more cautious and stay home. <Snip>  If someone loses their job, their home or their marriage and commits suicide, do they get counted in the covid deaths?  

Was this sarcasm?  Sure seemed like it.

For your last question - the answer is yes.

[Prozac]

3 hours ago, SocialD said:

 

Well we unfortunately got it while TDY to a known rona hotspot, because we're "essential," due to an upcoming deployment.  Truth is, we actually likely got it from a fellow squadron mate that thought what he was feeling was so mild that he didn't think it was actually rona.  But I digress....  So how long do we keep this up?  One month?  One year?  One decade?  What if we don't get a vaccine, we just do this for the rest of our existence?  How about we do what some of our local places are doing...providing shopping/office hours (or days) for those at a heightened risk.  Point is, a vast majority of us will be just fine and can continue to keep things going.  This isn't the military, you don't punished everyone just because one person shits their pants.

 

Funny you bring up being self sufficient.  Thanks to all this shit, the main (big name chain) grocery store in my home county just shut down.  I'm from the sticks and this was pretty much the sole source of groceries for the entire county.  It was the only place in the county that had the option for "click list" level of shopping...meaning they could order online, pull up, people load groceries in their trunk and leave.  Now they'll all have to either get their groceries from the super expensive "corner store," or drive 30 miles out of the county to next best option.  Great so now, not only does the next town over have it's locals shopping their, they'll have a whole other counties worth of people going there...social distancing shouldn't be a problem at all...  

Dude, I totally understand where you’re coming from and I agree with what you’re saying...to a point. We cannot move forward with a shuttered economy and our kids out of school indefinitely. But the argument that the fatalities were already walking dead is problematic. This country has seen somewhere around 200k excess deaths so far this year. Yes, the vast majority of them had underlying conditions, but it was COVID that pushed them over the edge. These people would not have died had it not been to the virus. So we introduce a serious ethical dilemma when we argue that this virus should be allowed to “cull the heard”. The vulnerable are still human beings and as a society we make a big deal about the value of all human life. We don’t throw our weak and sick to the wolves. We protect them. ~60k Americans died in Vietnam and it tore the country apart. A couple thousand died on September 11 and it had a major impact on our economy and drug us into two wars. But we are going to pretend that a threat that has the potential to kill more Americans than WWII doesn’t exist? No. We need to take all reasonable precautions to protect vulnerable Americans. That doesn’t mean we shut down completely but it probably means you don’t get to go to a football game this year. For the areas of the economy most affected, we should be spending whatever necessary to ensure they are still around when we get through this thing. For individuals unable to make ends meet through no fault of their own, again we should spend whatever required to help. The debt incurred will be far outweighed by long term economic damage if we do not. I believe national government (both parties) is currently failing on all accounts. 

[brickhistory]

Didn't know until today that the riots occurring in proximity to BLM protests are being conducted by white supremists.

I am told that by many sources in the media and by many representatives of one major political party.

I am glad they are so informative.

[SocialD]

47 minutes ago, Prozac said:

But the argument that the fatalities were already walking dead is problematic. Yes, the vast majority of them had underlying conditions, but it was COVID that pushed them over the edge. These people would not have died had it not been to the virus. So we introduce a serious ethical dilemma when we argue that this virus should be allowed to “cull the heard”. The vulnerable are still human beings and as a society we make a big deal about the value of all human life. We don’t throw our weak and sick to the wolves. We protect them.

 

I'm not saying they're walking dead, I'm simply saying we can protect them and not completely destroy our economy.  According to the CDC, 61% of all covid "related" deaths come from 7% of the population.  If we drill down further and look at those with multiple comorbid conditions, the percentage of the population with an elevated risk get smaller.  Take out the numbers of people killed needlessly (because we didn't know better at the time) BECAUSE they were put on vents and the number gets even smaller.  Throw out the deaths caused by leadership senselessly forcing retirement homes to take covid patients and that number continues to plummet.  Hindsight is 20/20 and all, but we have learned a lot!  I'm not saying we cast them off, but we sure as hell can develop a better plan to move forward and mitigate the threat.  

 

Quote

~60k Americans died in Vietnam and it tore the country apart. A couple thousand died on September 11 and it had a major impact on our economy and drug us into two wars. But we are going to pretend that a threat that has the potential to kill more Americans than WWII doesn’t exist? No. We need to take all reasonable precautions to protect vulnerable Americans. That doesn’t mean we shut down completely but it probably means you don’t get to go to a football game this year.  For the areas of the economy most affected, we should be spending whatever necessary to ensure they are still around when we get through this thing. For individuals unable to make ends meet through no fault of their own, again we should spend whatever required to help. The debt incurred will be far outweighed by long term economic damage if we do not.

 

Ok so I'll ask again, what if we don't have a cure by this time next year?  5 years from now?  10 years from now?  How long do we sustain this footing?  When do we say enough is enough?   Eventually we'll even run out of ink to keep printing money.  Hyperinflation sucks and will cause lots of death too! 

 

 

Quote

I believe national government (both parties) is currently failing on all accounts. 

 

I couldn't agree more, though I place a lot of fault at the feet of MSM as well.  Currently, I believe they're the single biggest downfall and threat to our country, but that's a whole other discussion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DosXX]

36 minutes ago, SocialD said:

 

 Hindsight is 20/20 and all, but we have learned a lot!  

 

Indeed, and those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. A higher second peak in the fall that exceeds our hospital capacity will kill at a much higher rate than now where we have kept them under capacity.

 

36 minutes ago, SocialD said:

Ok so I'll ask again, what if we don't have a cure by this time next year?  5 years from now?  10 years from now?  How long do we sustain this footing?  When do we say enough is enough?   Eventually we'll even run out of ink to keep printing money.  Hyperinflation sucks and will cause lots of death too!

The overwhelming consensus is that the vaccine will be available by Q2 of next year so this is a non issue we thankfully do not need to consider.

But since you asked, in the extreme hypothetical where was no end in sight for 5+ years, we should then find the policy limit at a local level that keeps hospitals right near their ICU capacity and keep it there until herd immunity is reached; then invest in hospital infrastructure/resources and continue to ease restrictions at the limit to accelerate herd immunity. 

[brabus]

9 hours ago, brawnie said:

What would you recommend?

A lot of what Social D already said, so I’ll try not to repeat. But, given the unknowns back in Mar (and not applying hindsight), I’m ok with the initial “flatten the curve” actions. However after that 4-6 weeks, I would have opened the economy back up and put kids back in school. Continue to emphasize the need for hygiene, stay home if your sick, social distance to max extent possible, etc. I’m certainly not against all things that have been done to counter Covid, but I’m very against the incredibly damaging things we’ve done to our economy, mental health, and our children’s well being and development. Those were not “necessary to save the world!”, they were knee jerk reactions with no, credible data to support. In the end, we’ve essentially crushed ourselves over a bad flu season. 

 

3 hours ago, Prozac said:

These people would not have died had it not been to the virus

False. That’s your opinion based on pure conjecture, not even remotely a fact. 

[Prozac]

5 minutes ago, brabus said:

 

False. That’s your opinion based on pure conjecture, not even remotely a fact. 

The excess deaths number currently stands at around 200k. This supports the CDC’s roughly 180k current coronavirus fatality number. Are you suggesting some other, unseen and unknown factor has caused roughly two hundred thousand Americans to die prematurely? That’d sure be a hell of a story. Maybe Q Anon will pick it up. 

[tedybearofdoom]

37 minutes ago, brabus said:

False. That’s your opinion based on pure conjecture, not even remotely a fact. 

I am genuinely interested in you opinion on people who contracted HIV/AIDS and died by contracting some other disease/virus.

I suppose the biggest difference is you contract HIV/AIDS then get something else that kills you whereas with COVID, you already have a preexisting condition and contracted COVID and then died. Is that really a big difference?

[Waingro]

11 hours ago, brabus said:

Direct from CDC website: “For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.”

94% of COVID deaths in our country are with underlying health conditions...

 

That's like saying gunshot victims are actually dying from blood loss and sepsis as comorbidities, and not the gunshot itself.

[busdriver]

9 hours ago, brawnie said:

And if the disease still got to you with restrictions (probably via asymptomatic transmission), how can we reasonably ask for those at risk to avoid infection? They still have to get food, go to the doctor, fix their homes, interact with those that care for them. Unfortunately, there is no such thing anymore as a self-sufficient man; everyone is very interconnected.

This is called life.  There is no omnipotent power that can protect everyone from nature.  Yes that's a heartless answer.  We've nerfed the world so effectively that when something like this comes along, we're flabbergasted that there isn't an answer if only our leaders would "be bold."

More rationally:  Society's ability to support the weaker members is contingent on being strong as a whole.  Shooting ourselves in the foot economically negatively impacts our ability to do that.  When small businesses fail because they can't pay their bills, those jobs go away, which means there is no job for that at risk person once nature has run its course.  Unless of course everyone wants to work for Amazon and our future overlord The Bezos.

Individual rights aside there were really only two rational courses of action (one of which is long since no longer available) the first is to lock down hard and starve the virus of hosts and let it burn out.  The second is to rationally mitigate to avoid overloading the medical system while allowing the economy to continue.  This in between thing that is happening now is political grandstanding.  

[Prozac]

4 minutes ago, busdriver said:

This is called life.  There is no omnipotent power that can protect everyone from nature.  Yes that's a heartless answer.  We've nerfed the world so effectively that when something like this comes along, we're flabbergasted that there isn't an answer if only our leaders would "be bold."

More rationally:  Society's ability to support the weaker members is contingent on being strong as a whole.  Shooting ourselves in the foot economically negatively impacts our ability to do that.  When small businesses fail because they can't pay their bills, those jobs go away, which means there is no job for that at risk person once nature has run its course.  Unless of course everyone wants to work for Amazon and our future overlord The Bezos.

Individual rights aside there were really only two rational courses of action (one of which is long since no longer available) the first is to lock down hard and starve the virus of hosts and let it burn out.  The second is to rationally mitigate to avoid overloading the medical system while allowing the economy to continue.  This in between thing that is happening now is political grandstanding.  

So the next time an earthquake hits this country we should say “that’s life”? That the nation cannot afford the relief effort and that growing the economy is more important than helping the people affected? How is the natural disaster we’re currently experiencing any different?

[BashiChuni]

corona virus is over. time to move on with our lives.

[busdriver]

30 minutes ago, Prozac said:

So the next time an earthquake hits this country we should say “that’s life”? That the nation cannot afford the relief effort and that growing the economy is more important than helping the people affected? How is the natural disaster we’re currently experiencing any different?

"rationally mitigate to avoid overloading the medical system while allowing the economy to continue"    You skipped the rest of the post.  

[Magnum]

1 hour ago, Prozac said:

So the next time an earthquake hits this country we should say “that’s life”? That the nation cannot afford the relief effort and that growing the economy is more important than helping the people affected? How is the natural disaster we’re currently experiencing any different?

The next earthquake that deviates the entire nation simultaneously let me know. Since the 98% of the country isn't affected, they can support those who need it.  Who can support the entire country when it's all shut down?