China & Chinese Shenanigans

[FourFans]

DIA not wanting to disclose sources and methods regarding information gathered (likely digital or human) in the only other country on the planet that poses a military and economic threat to the US security. Not shocking. Having seen how the sausage is made, I can attest that we overclassify the ever-living crap out of everything. Given very active Chinese efforts to infiltrate every aspect of our society, politics, and military, that's also not surprising. Frustrating as all hell, but not at all unexpected. I have no doubt that espionage effort is definitely a two way street.

What is sincerely concerning is the fact that our current leadership is not simply doing nothing at all to bring China to account for creating or at least not containing COVID, but that individuals in the administration are actively engaged in personal gain from Chinese influence, and have been for decades.

Edited September 17, 2023 by FourFans

[ClearedHot]

While the world burn in Ukraine and Gaza China wants to F around and find out.

 

[Biff_T]

41 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

While the world burn in Ukraine and Gaza China wants to F around and find out.

 

At least he didn't accidentally collide with the Buff.   

That'd be funny if if they dumped fuel on him.  

[SurelySerious]

That'd be funny if if they dumped fuel on him.  

Not in Curtis LeMay’s SAC: Fuel dump? Best I can do is speed brakes and gear down.

[CaptainMorgan]

While the world burn in Ukraine and Gaza China wants to F around and find out.
 

He just needed to rehack his dissimilar form currency.


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[gearhog]

Here's an interesting slideshow from the WSJ today.

Yesterday, we were unable to successfully test a Minuteman III.

https://www.wsj.com/story/china-and-russia-are-far-ahead-the-us-in-the-race-for-hypersonic-missiles-80c514ef

[Smokin]

I see the B-52 WSOs or whatever they're called are getting better at using the pod.

[Pooter]

On 11/2/2023 at 4:14 PM, gearhog said:

Here's an interesting slideshow from the WSJ today.

Yesterday, we were unable to successfully test a Minuteman III.

https://www.wsj.com/story/china-and-russia-are-far-ahead-the-us-in-the-race-for-hypersonic-missiles-80c514ef

I take all of this with a massive grain of salt.
 

First of all, hypersonic capable missiles and aircraft have been around since the beginning of the space race, so we should clarify terms. Maneuvering hypersonic weapons that don't follow a ballistic trajectory is what we're really talking about. And even those aren't turning out to be the silver bullet everyone thought they were. 
 

Russias claimed "hypersonics" are basically just air launched ballistic missiles that are easy to, and have been intercepted.

China's hypersonics, while a more compelling design, are very shiny but entirely unproven. Like most of the rest of their military. 

How many foxbat-esque supposed world beating weapon systems have to be exposed as dogshit before we start to understand that corrupt communist dictatorships massively inflate their military capes?  
 

Im not saying we should discount these threats, but perhaps the reason we're "behind" on paper is because we're trying to build something that's actually effective rather than a PR stunt.

 

 

[Scooter14]

How many foxbat-esque supposed world beating weapon systems have to be exposed as dogshit before we start to understand that corrupt communist dictatorships massively inflate their military capes?
 

These keep the military industrial complex going so they will probably continue to exist.


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[Danger41]

I genuinely hope that all of this crap turns out to be like the Foxbat which produced the Mighty Eagle. If all of this stuff turns out to be a helpless baby seal, I very much hope me and my buddies all have the sharpest and most lethal clubs that the American taxpayer can buy and the military industrial complex can produce.

[Lawman]

I genuinely hope that all of this crap turns out to be like the Foxbat which produced the Mighty Eagle. If all of this stuff turns out to be a helpless baby seal, I very much hope me and my buddies all have the sharpest and most lethal clubs that the American taxpayer can buy and the military industrial complex can produce.

Somebody needs to campaign on that metaphor.


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[FourFans]

13 hours ago, Lawman said:

Somebody needs to campaign on that metaphor.
 

@M2 2024! With @nsplayr as the VP.

Edited November 8, 2023 by FourFans

[ClearedHot]

A new remote assignment coming soon to an island not near you or anything...

US Air Force to reclaim Pacific airfield that launched atomic bombings as it looks to counter China

Actually a very good strategic move, while still on the same range ring a Guam, it will dilute China's ability to mass fires on Guam (sounds like they are beefing up the international airport as well.

[Clark Griswold]

Commute worthy and good summary of an extensive set of war games on a cage match between the USA v PRC for Taiwan

BLUF for the USAF: get ready to take losses, build depth in platforms and magazines


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[HeloDude]

On 8/6/2022 at 5:47 AM, ClearedHot said:

A lot of chat on the financial side the past few weeks about the economic crisis hitting China which has resulted in frozen bank accounts and some large protests (that were crushed brutally with violence).  Some of more alarmist pundits are predicting the CCP will lose control within the next two months.  Communist governments have a history of shifting focus to external "enemies" when things start to get bad and the situation with Nancy also escalated a lot of nationalistic fervor on social media.  Whatever the situation it is clear they are seriously prepping for a fight.  In the three images below taken this past November you can see their focus on countering our naval power.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not calling you out since I’ve had plenty of predictions turn up incorrect, but curious what your take is currently? (and yes, I know this wasn’t your prediction per se, but from your post I’m assuming you thought there was some potential validity to it).

[DirkDiggler]

China's Economy Is Shrinking. That Should Worry the US and the World. (businessinsider.com)

  I'm not smart on global economics at all but I found this article interesting, don't know anything about the author.

[Skitzo]

China's Economy Is Shrinking. That Should Worry the US and the World. (businessinsider.com)
  I'm not smart on global economics at all but I found this article interesting, don't know anything about the author.

If you’re looking to delve into the topic or international relations Peter Zaihan is pretty good. He takes a topic and distills it down in about 10 minutes or so in a way that doesn’t confuse me or make me feel stupid.

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[Lawman]

If you’re looking to delve into the topic or international relations Peter Zaihan is pretty good. He takes a topic and distills it down in about 10 minutes or so in a way that doesn’t confuse me or make me feel stupid.




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He’s also been disturbingly accurate in his prediction on some of this.

Zaihan may be a little more “end is near” than some for my taste, but his tie in with demographics in China and their hard stop coming economically has to dire a set of consequences to be avoided.

Unfortunately when you look at EV tech adoption our top level policy makers look to be hurtling cash into the sinking ship and ignoring our own industries that we will need in the immediate future. To them geopolitics comes in a distant 2nd when matched against climate interventionist vanity projects.


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[Skitzo]

He’s also been disturbingly accurate in his prediction on some of this.



Zaihan may be a little more “end is near” than some for my taste, but his tie in with demographics in China and their hard stop coming economically has to dire a set of consequences to be avoided.

Unfortunately when you look at EV tech adoption our top level policy makers look to be hurtling cash into the sinking ship and ignoring our own industries that we will need in the immediate future. To them geopolitics comes in a distant 2nd when matched against climate interventionist vanity projects.


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Agreed, and if this is what China is saying publicly then imagine how bad it ACTUALLY is.


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[ClearedHot]

On 1/23/2024 at 1:19 PM, HeloDude said:

Not calling you out since I’ve had plenty of predictions turn up incorrect, but curious what your take is currently? (and yes, I know this wasn’t your prediction per se, but from your post I’m assuming you thought there was some potential validity to it).

Indeed it was not a prediction, I was sharing the thoughts of some others that are far more draconian, BUT ones we should listen to and consider.  As others have noted Peter Z does a great job of walking through the socioeconomic conditions that are pulling china into this downward spiral.  I would balance his comments with and the lose of control predictions with the reality of having a brutal dictator running the show, one who is reluctant to give up power and will take actions that may worsen the conditions of the population if it allows him to remain in control.  The breaking point others have predicted is all predicated upon the people rising up, and we have seen how that has gone in China in the past.

Something is happening in China and Jinping is swinging a big bat.  It was widely reported China Closed 2023 With a Military Purge, especially interesting that he went after the not only his top 9 generals but also the PLA Rocket Force.  They are supposed to be the asymmetric advantage that will hold the U.S. at bay should we respond to an attack/invasion of Taiwan.  With this and other actions Jinping is now in an echo chamber of his own thoughts and words and we've seen what has happened in the past when a single person has that much power.

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

Indeed it was not a prediction, I was sharing the thoughts of some others that are far more draconian, BUT ones we should listen to and consider.  As others have noted Peter Z does a great job of walking through the socioeconomic conditions that are pulling china into this downward spiral.  I would balance his comments with and the lose of control predictions with the reality of having a brutal dictator running the show, one who is reluctant to give up power and will take actions that may worsen the conditions of the population if it allows him to remain in control.  The breaking point others have predicted is all predicated upon the people rising up, and we have seen how that has gone in China in the past.

Something is happening in China and Jinping is swinging a big bat.  It was widely reported China Closed 2023 With a Military Purge, especially interesting that he went after the not only his top 9 generals but also the PLA Rocket Force.  They are supposed to be the asymmetric advantage that will hold the U.S. at bay should we respond to an attack/invasion of Taiwan.  With this and other actions Jinping is now in an echo chamber of his own thoughts and words and we've seen what has happened in the past when a single person has that much power.

Appreciate your opinions as always!  My take with any major concern/prediction is being able to measure if it was accurate.  For example, the climate alarmists have been wrong many times over the last several decades and at least now they’ve become more slick and are making their predictions so far in the future that we’ll all be nearly dead by the time we can see if the predictions were accurate or not.  Credibility amongst the “experts” (climate, geopolitics, finance, etc) can only be judged by the accuracy of their predictions, and they need to measured in the shorter vs the longer term.

As for China specifically, I’m far from an expert, but I wouldn’t be very surprised if China invades Taiwan in the next several years (can it really be called an invasion if even our own government says Taiwan in part of China and not independent?), but I would very surprised if the CCP fell apart in the same time frame.

[Clark Griswold]

My druthers, invasion seems likely as it (the CCP) will be desperate to distract and redirect their population’s anger as their nation declines and Xi wishes to fulfill his promise of reunification 

Countries in desperate situations (by their perspective) rarely make wise decisions and the personalities at the top of authoritarian regimes are often gamblers who will risk big when they think they can win

Weak corrupt venal western leaders, empty weapons arsenals, overstretched resources and tenuous turbulent domestic politics in your rival make for ideal conditions for invasion methinks.

[bfargin]

It's been more than 100 years since China had anything like control or even a cooperative relationship with Taiwan. I lived there from 1970 through 1980 (HS graduation) while it was still under marshal law with the US protection and support. Before we were there, Japan ruled them for 50 years from 1894/5 through 1945 when we liberated Taiwan. Before that the Dutch, Portuguese, and several other countries had brief periods of "control". Before that the Qing dynasty had some control but really even back then it was its own ruled island (rough terrain, numerous people groups, largely untamed). China has no right to claim Taiwan at all.

[Skitzo]

It's been more than 100 years since China had anything like control or even a cooperative relationship with Taiwan. I lived there from 1970 through 1980 (HS graduation) while it was still under marshal law with the US protection and support. Before we were there, Japan ruled them for 50 years from 1894/5 through 1945 when we liberated Taiwan. Before that the Dutch, Portuguese, and several other countries had brief periods of "control". Before that the Qing dynasty had some control but really even back then it was its own ruled island (rough terrain, numerous people groups, largely untamed). China has no right to claim Taiwan at all.

Right, actually Xi’s axe to grind is “The Century of Humiliation,” starting with the first of the opium wars.

Whether or not they have a right to China is not really the question—it represents where Chang Kai-Shek led the Nationalists after their defeat in their Civil War on the mainland. I’m sure you know all of that based on your experience but it seems to be a driving factor for Xi to remain in power especially if the economy goes down the crapper.


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[bfargin]

Skitzo, exactly right. I'm def not a Taiwan expert but we spent a semester in HS on Taiwan history so know more than the average American. I was there under martial law so was told not to discuss these type issues with any Taiwanese. Back then the KMT had full power under CKS (1949-1975) and then his son Chiang Ching kuo through the 1980s. Severe punishment/control was exercised over any dissenters during that time period. CKS screwed Taiwan in the long run insisting that Taiwan was part of China and he/they would take back all of China eventually with him as leader.  When that failed, it trapped Taiwan into their current position of limbo between full nation status and a claimed province of China.