I have no doubt that this technology is great and advancing at an amazing pace. I agree that a "drop-in" system is significant, in that it could be much more quickly and cheaply entered into service. It's neat that it can takes commands but how does it do in non-normals? When will you board a passenger aircraft, look left and see this? I think it will be a LONG time, but then again, I was wrong once before.
I'm not saying it's not coming, but here are what I see as greater obstacles to the pace at which this stuff is entered.
1. Emotion. Getting the flying public onboard with this is going to be an issue. Probably not a big deal for the younger generation however, not the same with the older generation. Hell, I'm technically a millennial and there is no way you would get me in a driverless uber or car anytime soon. Probably irrational, but I just don't trust it. I figure that buys this another decade or two. Then there are the afterthoughts of the German Wings incident when a single pilot was left to his own devices...maybe they'll install a "what are you doing Dave..."
2. Labor unions. Right now, contracts define who can fly a jet for their company. The Captain and First Officer are clearly defined and even referenced as him (must not have had AF sensitivity training). So the company is going to have to come to the union and ask for this "give." While we can argue how great some unions are, one thing is for sure...they love their dues money! This battle is probably THE ONE thing we could get EVERY pilot and pilot union behind! Imagine if every union pushed this to a strike and planes stopped flying. Airlines have become so big that, if just one of the big 3 didn't turn a wheel, it would cause harm to the economy. Now imagine if DAL/UAL/AAL/AK/JBLU/SWA/UPS/FDX all stopped flying at once! That would cause mass chaos and probably constitute a national emergency.
3. Work Rules. If you expect pilots to fly single pilot with HAL, then expect to pay out the ass for that remaining pilot. I would want the Captain AND First Officer pay rates combined and them some. Hours worked per day would need to come down dramatically (thus causing the need for more pilots). Right now we do trips where you takeoff with the dawn patrol to the west coast and land ~1000-1100. Then you go to the hotel for 12 hours, try to sleep during the day, then fly the redeye back to the east coast that night. No way you could still fly that rotation without another pilot. On some of our fleets, guys fly some incredibly long days, that cause even two man crew to call in fatigued. My gut tells me that many more do NOT call fatigued because they know they have another pilot to back them up. One pilot, even with the aid of HAL, couldn't do the entire trip. Now that I don't have another pilot to help with some of the administrative tasks, I'll need to report to work earlier...more pay! These are just a few of the many examples of lost efficiency that will go against any gains by going single pilot.
4. Automation. While great, is still far from perfect. I've had automatic uploads be completely out to lunch. CPDLC pushes not load properly. I've had the AP aggressively pitch over to 10-13 degrees nose low, in the weather, at the FAF...this was on a jet that had been on the line less than a month old. APs that decide when your 15 knots fast and 5 knots from overspeeding, decided that now is the time to ADD power. As a single seat guy, I walked into the airline gig thinking it was super easy, not sure why you needed two pilots, a few years flying here has changed my mind. While the job isn't necessarily hard for the experienced and properly trained aviator, I can't tell you how many time we've caught each others errors. Pilot error being one of the major causes of accidents...how many accidents were avoided because the other pilot trapped an error...unfortunately we'll never know. To those of you who've never flown in the airlines, I would bet you'd be surprised by the number, if there were a way to compile the data.
5. FAA Regulation. The bureaucratic nightmare that is the "snails pace" FAA is a major slow up in the process. Have you ever tried to get anything done quickly with these guys? Hell, even when they know it's right, it takes them forever and a day to get shit done. When the 737 fleet manager wanted to get a minor issue changed, he invited the FAA inspectors to a sim to prove his point. They agreed with the fleet manager and these guys were the dudes who had to sign it off...it still took years to get the change and even then it was more restrictive than what the fleet manager PROVED was good to go.
6. Politics. We have lots of pilots located within just a few major districts in the US (ORD/ATL/NYC/DFW/LAX/SEA). I suspect the labor unions would also be putting out ads spreading fear of "HAL" which would probably get more people to talk with their representatives. Not to mention more, good paying U.S. jobs lost.
If this does start to work it's way in the commercial aviation, where do I see it going? I suspect it will be much like the plan that a RAND study laid out. Cargo carriers, initially flying from coastal cities to coastal cities across the ocean first. Then Cargo across the U.S. into sparsely populated areas. Once it's proven itself to a certain level of safety, only then will the FAA let it come to passenger carriers. This could easily take DECADES.
As someone who has 30+ years left until mandatory retirement, this is on my radar scope, but it has a long way to go until I consider it "threat criteria" and ask for a split. However, it's always a good idea to realize the threat is there and have a game plan to deal with it.