Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[uhhello]

1 hour ago, icohftb said:

Agree Russia may have to give up some land. Or did you mean Ukraine?

If we're being honest here.  Ukraine can't sustain the manpower required longer term.  You can give them all the equipment they want/need, the level of manpower UKR needs isn't there longer term.  Negotiate to pre-invasion (the second one) borders and start there.  

[hindsight2020]

8 hours ago, uhhello said:

If we're being honest here.  Ukraine can't sustain the manpower required longer term.  You can give them all the equipment they want/need, the level of manpower UKR needs isn't there longer term.  Negotiate to pre-invasion (the second one) borders and start there.  

TLDR version: Finland proves you can exercise deterrence against a numbers-bully. No capitulation on your sovereignty required.

Wordy version:

Russia doesn't have any incentive to negotiate back to pre-Donbas annexation, so that's not gonna happen. They'll keep throwing their expendables at the grinder, as is the way of that ghastly Russian so-called Federation, which in all honesty has always been a shaky held one at the point of many rusty, but outnumbering guns.

Ukraine could capitulate even more territory, but all it buys them is time for the next assault. Ivan will come for them again. 

The Ukranians need to read the Finnish playbook more deeply. Finland almost went the way of Ukraine historically, but managed to reach the lifeboat with NATO membership and more importantly, a very strong homeland-defense prepositioning policy. Finland is the mother of all, living-defensive line. Heck even shouldering up with the actual Nazis was necessary in order to bloody up the bear's nose, no fucks given by Finland. Life is grey, at least for us Realists. 

Fact is if Lenin hadn't been so easy on Finland the first time (1910s) they broke away from Russia, theirs would be a similar story as today's Ukraine. So people need to give Ukraine a bit more benefit here on the whole capitulation front. Remember, population wise, Finland is a piddly tiny country compared to Ukraine, yet the deterrence outcomes between the two are stark. Yes, Ukraine got saddled with the Soviet Union proper after WWII, that's of course the biggest historical obstacle.

Let's also remember that Finland too, gave up some land. But then they effected a brilliant homeland deterrence policy for a Country of such small size. Ukraine needs to go full Finn once any cease fire is afforded to it. The Finns don't forget the 11% they gave up to this day, and neither should Ukraine.

 

[ClearedHot]

11 hours ago, hindsight2020 said:

TLDR version: Finland proves you can exercise deterrence against a numbers-bully. No capitulation on your sovereignty required.

Wordy version:

Russia doesn't have any incentive to negotiate back to pre-Donbas annexation, so that's not gonna happen. They'll keep throwing their expendables at the grinder, as is the way of that ghastly Russian so-called Federation, which in all honesty has always been a shaky held one at the point of many rusty, but outnumbering guns.

Ukraine could capitulate even more territory, but all it buys them is time for the next assault. Ivan will come for them again. 

The Ukranians need to read the Finnish playbook more deeply. Finland almost went the way of Ukraine historically, but managed to reach the lifeboat with NATO membership and more importantly, a very strong homeland-defense prepositioning policy. Finland is the mother of all, living-defensive line. Heck even shouldering up with the actual Nazis was necessary in order to bloody up the bear's nose, no fucks given by Finland. Life is grey, at least for us Realists. 

Fact is if Lenin hadn't been so easy on Finland the first time (1910s) they broke away from Russia, theirs would be a similar story as today's Ukraine. So people need to give Ukraine a bit more benefit here on the whole capitulation front. Remember, population wise, Finland is a piddly tiny country compared to Ukraine, yet the deterrence outcomes between the two are stark. Yes, Ukraine got saddled with the Soviet Union proper after WWII, that's of course the biggest historical obstacle.

Let's also remember that Finland too, gave up some land. But then they effected a brilliant homeland deterrence policy for a Country of such small size. Ukraine needs to go full Finn once any cease fire is afforded to it. The Finns don't forget the 11% they gave up to this day, and neither should Ukraine.

 

Perhaps but the bear is not as strong as they try to project, Putin will continue to throw meat at the grinder but how much meat will he have?

The Russian population has been in decline, WITHOUT the war the UN is projecting that the decline that started in 2021 will continue, and if current demographic conditions persist, Russia's population will be 120 million in 50 years, a decline of about 17%.  Last August, The New York Times quoted unnamed U.S. officials as saying that up to 120,000 Russian troops had been killed and 170,000 to 180,000 wounded.  They are creating a huge gap from age 15-29 and when combined with the bubble that follows, they are going have a REAL issue in a few years.

 

[Lawman]

I think you guys are focusing on the wrong metric in the totals vs totals discussion.

What they can put in the field is not the same problem set as what they can command and maneuver. When this was started the Russians showed a complete lack of command and synchronization above the Battalion Task Group level (hence having essentially 4 axis doing 4 separate things and failing in all of them to achieve victory). The Ukrainians weren’t much better off but they only needed parity to achieve an effective defense and they had plenty of depth to surrender in the defense. That was an Army that had effective small unit weapons but lacked the thousands of armored and artillery pieces that would later be given in aid.

Last year we started seeing the effective growth of Brigade level staffs in the Ukrainian Army, starting with their pushing back and regaining territory. It was largely limited to a few specific brigades. Since then we’ve seen a wider group of effective command and staff officers gain experience and now are fielding enough combined staff effectively to start thinking about Divisional actions (exactly what just happened in Kursk). There is a deliberate force generation going on to take advantage of this capacity, but that takes time to train and field and will probably be another 6-9 months before another wave of action is attempted based off all the troop-company level training that needs to be done so you aren’t just issuing impossible orders to conscripts.

The Russians on the other hand are not really getting better, they still effectively can chew for ground by just throwing bodies at it, but it’s why they can’t present multiple dilemmas effectively across the broad front. Remember May when they were so sure they were taking Kharkiv? Yeah they don’t either. So when people say “the Russian victory is an eventuality” it’s really saying if the Russians are allowed to fight the war the only way they know how, eventually they win… at a ridiculous cost. The Ukrainians don’t have to allow them to fight that way, but they do have to be equipped and trained to change the name of the song that’s playing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[StoleIt]

Russia Fox 2's their own "stealth" UCAV:

 

[uhhello]

So 'stealthy' 🙂

[Majestik Møøse]

Yes, “near peers”

[uhhello]

[ClearedHot]

[FourFans]

They used stealth drywall screws in final assembly...not to mention the stealth APU exhaust or well...the entire engine...   It's tech the US hasn't hit yet.

Those ghost flames on that paint scheme though!

Edited October 7, 2024 by FourFans

[brabus]

Just got all the sheet rock hung at the house build - my house is stealthy AF!

[Clark Griswold]

Not pushing an agenda but posted for context and information

Ukraine ‘Conscription Squads’ Grabbing Men off Streets to Fight in War:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2024/10/06/ukraine-conscription-squads-grabbing-men-off-streets-to-fight-in-war-report/

Like it or not they’re probably reaching a kind of culmination point, whoever becomes POTUS, recognize this and find an acceptable resolution


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[disgruntledemployee]

6 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

.....

Like it or not they’re probably reaching a kind of culmination point, whoever becomes POTUS, recognize this and find an acceptable resolution.

Now that is funny right there.

[HeloDude]

10 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

Ukraine ‘Conscription Squads’ Grabbing Men off Streets to Fight in War:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2024/10/06/ukraine-conscription-squads-grabbing-men-off-streets-to-fight-in-war-report/

Welcome to “democracy”.

[StoleIt]

UAF F-16 allegedly downs SU-34.

Follow ups:

- Do their Vipers have off boresight capability?

- Did we give them -9X's?

 

https://armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/army-news-2024/breaking-news-ukrainian-f-16-fighter-wins-first-air-to-air-fight-shoots-down-russian-su-34

[SocialD]

55 minutes ago, StoleIt said:

UAF F-16 allegedly downs SU-34.

Follow ups:

- Do their Vipers have off boresight capability?

- Did we give them -9X's?

 

 

 

Not today Vlad!  

[Clark Griswold]

UAF F-16 allegedly downs SU-34.
Follow ups:
- Do their Vipers have off boresight capability?
- Did we give them -9X's?
 
https://armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/army-news-2024/breaking-news-ukrainian-f-16-fighter-wins-first-air-to-air-fight-shoots-down-russian-su-34

No idea but would not be surprised
A fighter without the right weapons is pointless


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Smokin]

With both JHMCS and 9X, I'd imagine they do.  As a bonus, the pilots that survive the war will have life-long neck pain to look forward to...

[StoleIt]

4 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

No idea but would not be surprised
A fighter without the right weapons is pointless


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Further googled:
Dutch and Danish F-16's were donated to Ukraine. Those are AM and BM configured which have been upgraded to have HMD's.

Also this picture from The War Zone helps:

Definitely not an -9X in the picture, but that doesn't mean they do or don't have them.

[ClearedHot]

On 10/14/2024 at 10:53 PM, StoleIt said:

Further googled:
Dutch and Danish F-16's were donated to Ukraine. Those are AM and BM configured which have been upgraded to have HMD's.

Also this picture from The War Zone helps:

Definitely not an -9X in the picture, but that doesn't mean they do or don't have them.

I am more impressed by the ECIPS.

Break break...As previously reported N Korea sent 8,000 troops to Russia to train then on to the front.  The Ukrainians just killed the first batch in  a couple of drone strikes. 

A staggering report just came out of the Institute for The Study of War - They estimate that Russian has lost an average of 30,000 troops (killed or wounded), every month in 2024.  In October alone they lost 57,000 troops.  What a meat grinder.

 

 

[BashiChuni]

I wonder what the Ukraine casualties are?

[tac airlifter]

That is a stunning pace of attrition; my western mind struggles to grasp sustaining that volume of casualties.
 

I’m often thought this war was foolish and unnecessary, but here we are and there’s no turning back.  Curious what threshold of loss is required to get parties at a negotiating table.

[ClearedHot]

25 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

I wonder what the Ukraine casualties are?

Unknown, but zero active duty American casualties and Russia will be unable to fight a peer/near-peer for a generation.

[Majestik Møøse]

9 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Unknown, but zero active duty American casualties and Russia will be unable to fight a peer/near-peer for a generation.

Also, like who really gives a shit about Tombstones and Gravestones anymore, you know? Between Ukraine ATACMS and the Israelis there won’t be much left

[Smokin]

Russia has lost twice as many casualties as the US did in WWI.  It looks like Ukraine has casualty rates at about 60% of Russia's if US estimates are accurate.  If Russia keeps at it, a year from now they will have more losses than the US did during WWII.

There are some interesting parallels to WWI:

-Initial estimates were a war that would last weeks, not years

-Russia (and everyone else) overestimated Russia's offensive power

-Everyone else underestimated Ukraine's defense

-Battlefield has become relatively stable without considerable advances by either side and thousands are dying for yards of ground