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hindsight2020

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hindsight2020 last won the day on April 30

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About hindsight2020

  • Birthday 10/18/1981

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  1. Indeed. Semantics are funny that way. In practice it's baked-in, as you highlight. ๐Ÿ‘
  2. There's none. It's strictly an ARC provision. Title 10 United States Code (USC), ยง 12686(a) and 12646(e) establish an active duty (AD) retirement sanctuary for members of all Air Reserve Components (ARCs).
  3. Yup. Captive audience 100%. RV-10 prices are what we colloquially call a non-starter. The reality is that EAB is an empty-nester/childfree captured market; it is what it is. The second my mission removes the need for a backseat, I'm outta here. This is supposed to be fun, and frankly, other than the epic ocean crossing I did earlier this year (got lucky too, I'm writing this with an airplane hard AOG 7 hours drive away; who the hell knows when I'll get it fixed/for how much because cErTiFiEd potato....), the certified rules have absolutely grinded me down after 12 years. Waiting for Godot on the regulatory relief front wasn't a particularly sound bet to rely on (part 23 re-write and hopes of primary-non-commercial vanished like a fart in the wind, in 2015). The Piper wing spar bolt hole eddy AD was the final nail in the coffin for me. The perennial growth of yet another recurring AD on these old legacy certified cans is the bane of my existence. I was gonna pivot earlier last year, but then the Fed scuttled the interest rates, so every tom dick and harry came out the woodwork and can get a loan for an airplane; prices on everything shot to the moon. Until that credit lending spigot shuts off and prices return to more prevailing-wage dependent market (I'm sensitive to that inflection, as a cash buyer), I'm stuck with my current fac-built. I can't touch replacement for what I paid for it in the 2013 market. Nor would I want to if it got totaled tomorrow. Had to increase the insured hull value just to keep up with that asset inflation, which is essentially a cost increase for no added value. Never understood why people cheer for asset inflation, but never mention the underlying costs (insurance, property taxes et al). Nope. I am one of them, and I've been in this overpriced hobby for a while. I was considering saddling myself with a 2-airplane affair in 2020, but Fed policy wrecked my price point. I kick myself in the nads for not having pulled the trigger in 2019 when I gave up on the *Lance pursuit (*in part recognizing a bigger certified airplane was just going to keep pissing me off on the mx/operational rules/allowances front) and started looking at -6As at that time. In fairness, it'll come down again (been on this hobby for a decade and a half, I've seen this irrational exuberance movie before...), and when it does, I'm jumping on an RV and never looking back. If you can't beat em join 'em. Live and learn.
  4. TLDR warning**** Here's the thing. Just like RegAF (e.g. see aviation bonus tone deafness, AFPC lateral assignment gratuitous inflexibility), the FAA is not in the business of bartering with its subjects. It's all about control to them. Which is why they have always worked hard at running interference against any attempt at operational regulatory relief. Recreational aviation is a distraction and a nuisance to their main regulatory capture grift (airline traffic and for revenue industry writ large). Outside of the flight training market that they need to keep afloat in order to feed that delicious and cheap non-ab-initio ATP cannon fodder to the regional airlines and part 135, they'd love nothing more than to close off the NAS to non-revenue flight. We'd look like European GA in no time if they had their way. The pivot point that jumped the shark for me was the 2015 snuffing of the primary non-commercial category, explicitly contained in the 2013 Aviation Rule committee's report submitted to congress, latter which was the framework for the part 23 re-write push. Passed by Congress and signed by POTUS 44...and summarily missing from the implementation without any public transparency on the part of the FAA was primary non-commercial. So EAB continued to explode as a result, as it really is an outlier in terms of what can be accomplished so long as you can negotiate the gate-keeping of the 51% rule, and/or having a non-factory entity initially-assemble your toy. Oh for the grace of god go I type of thing. Digressing. The latest one is the LAMA-lobbied MOSAIC 2023 legislation pinky promise. Already, there's visible indicators it's going to be a huge nonthingburger, just like the part 23 re-write was. So yeah, pencil whipping and scofflawing this thing is about the only way to stay in the game in the certified side. Safety arguments are complete dishonest strawmen, when the same actions are allowed in EAB and no ill fate to the pedestrians on the ground. Catch me if you can type thing.
  5. Oh you're preaching to the choir. But it's moot. Pilot retention is NOT something the AF legitimately cares about. The Service Chief has bought lock stock and barrel this PTN illuminati version of fixing the manning problem via production. Which is itself peddled in a version that purports attaining said goals without the need to re-up a former UPT location (Moody being the obvious one in present circumstances). For the record, that pseudo-intellectual pet project is not attaining the production targets they have been aiming for since FY18. My prediction is that it will continue to fail to meet targets until the current autocrat in the training throne retires and the next chucklehead tells everybody to start ramping up some other pet project. Now, even under the Chief's own implicit stipulation of focusing on production over retention, chances of actually enacting Occam's Razor (e.g ramp up Moody) and getting on with the task at hand? Zero. Our capitalization priorities are FUBAR as it is; zero chance that ever becoming a COA that won't get wholly dismissed from the jump. So PTN gaslighting, and more hull losses is what you'll get. --brk brk-- On the QOL front, the reality is that a lot of the thrash that made ops tempo what it was, is AFCENT/CENTCOM created, and none of the AF sub-hierarchies dared push back for effect. AETC tours were supposed to be a reprieve, but they got co-opted into that individual augmentee, operation deny xmas nonsense peddled by CENTCOM, and cheered on by the cOmBaT-cRed/deployment-bros that found themselves in the seats in NAF/staff circles. Meanwhile, that one "deployed" base in Qatar looked like mornings at the local Home Depot parking lot. Fwa run amok. But keeping people in garrison for a tour, or honoring BoP follow-on is all of a sudden blasphemy? Copy. No amount of money is gonna fix that. That's why I went AFRC from day one. I got 99 problems here, but being told I'm "a drain" on the Total Force because I choose to stipulate non-financials (schedules and homesteading in my case) over money or promotions when offering my indentured servitude (aka control), is just not one of them. For the RegAF otoh, squeezing gratuitously appears to be a given, and no amount of money is gonna fix that anti-labor pathology. You need a doctrinal shift, and that's a wish in one hand type o' thing from where I sit. So yeah... the airlines are hiring. ๐Ÿคทโ€โ™‚๏ธ
  6. The AF higher echelon so far seems fairly comfortable/copacetic about that trade. Down here in the worker's floor we just get to bury our former students, sports kvetch at MDS conferences about manning policies we can't change, and plan missing man flyovers ad nauseam. Not trying to be gratuitously despondent, but from where I sit, a lot more visible (from the public's perspective) losses would have to happen to create political pressure onto the Service Chief on this front.
  7. I know people always look at it from the prism of working that job for 25 years, but for those who don't/won't/can't, the time delta to hold PHX can be significant between those two. I think that would favor SW.
  8. now now careful now, no anti-imperialist coming-out party until you get that DD214 in hand buddy. tsk tsk ๐Ÿ˜„ You know the scene from SuperBad about the dick drawings lunch box? Let's just say my wife has become quite the effective sockpuppet account for my foreign policy musings ๐Ÿ˜„. It's no Greyzone level content just yet; I got myself about 2,007.5 points (not that I'm counting or anything...๐Ÿ™„) to go before I can tell you what I really think. Cheers!๐Ÿบ
  9. I dunno, I don't speak Active Duty "career progression" all that well. As to the bolded, I can't speak to the the assumptions you're making regarding your "ineligibility" to join the ARC. I've seen people Palace Chase in all manner and conditions the book answer says they can't, fwiw. Twice passed-over waivers are mere formalities in the ARC btw, what's more lengthy and difficult to do is the retire/re-hire. As to non-continuation, it only matters how you feel about it, but I think those fears are overblown. Again I don't know all the AD jargon intricacies of being passed over, but on the surface I don't see anything there that would preclude you from finishing in the ARC and making O-5, outside of running into MSD issues as an O-4 as a "late rate" into the 11(?) world.
  10. and then you "fail" the Hogan lol. Airline application process is so schizophrenic. Today's persona non-grata is tomorrow's "tier I" applicant. Kinda like the AF actually. ๐Ÿ˜„
  11. It's moot now of course, but the 2011 casualties we interacted with, all were able to make it to the check of the month via the ARC if they so chose to. All the ones I dealt with indeed promoted to O-5 and attained active duty retirements from it no less. We also dealt with many from the 2013-14 VSP/RIF round, same deal. Again, we hired several of them, and they admit it's the best thing that could have ever happen to them looking back. It was certainly a crazy ivan flex at the time from mother blue for those 150 odd Majors, but it also shows the idea of getting the retirement rug terminally pulled from under you is greatly overblown. You just have to be willing to call that bluff. Once you make it to O-4, there are plenty avenues to make it to 20 and beyond outside the Active Duty sausage maker. Just a friendly PSA for those still debating continuing to practice bleeding in the AD over fears they can't get to retirement Shangri-La as O-4s.
  12. You mean other than the shooting, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln? Signed, TAMI/BRAC'05 YG casualties. Jest aside, congrats.
  13. don't forget points-only Cat-E for the real min run warrior.
  14. Lol The Milton of the airline world.
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