Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[Majestik Møøse]

Blue, you’re scoffing the others in this thread for being unintelligent without taking a step back. The USG already gives between $100B/yr to LM (depending on source), which accounts for about 70-80% of their revenue. The rest of their revenue comes from friendly governments (some just funded by ours anyway), with only 1-2% from non-government sources (which is likely cross-pollination with other USG contractors).

Overall, the USG gave $682B to contractors in 2020, $482B from the DOD.

Considering what we get for that - ancient technology that will always lag behind demand-funded consumer tech while never being actually employed - the bang for the buck against our adversaries approaches zero. The point that others are making in this thread is that - compared to normal spending - spending on Ukraine at the rate of $26B/yr (4% over what we normally spend) is pretty cheap considering the devastating effect it’s getting on an adversary. The weapons sent to Ukraine are actually being employed.

As long as it doesn’t end up starting a nuclear war.

[Prozac]

4 hours ago, Blue said:

It's fascinating to see otherwise intelligent people look at what's going on in the world, and think it's some screenplay being acted out in real life.

The US and Ukraine are the good guys in white hats.  Russia is the bad guy in the black hat.  Challenges are faced, obstacles overcome, the good guys win, the bad guys retreat, and the credits roll.

It's fucking bizarre.

At some point, you really do have to decide who are the good guys, who are the bad guys, and what you’re willing to stand up for. Yes, we live in a “gray” world. Is the United States or Ukraine 100% good or innocent? No. Is Russia 100% awful? No. But the circumstances of this war are pretty clear cut and I can’t, offhand, think of a conflict in my lifetime where it was more apparent who the bad guys are. I find the fact that we are able to have such a major effect without putting actual American human beings and assets at risk to be fucking fantastic & it’s got to be one of the more no-shit effective uses of government money as of late. I’m more than happy to have a few dollars a paycheck go towards turning Putin’s Flankers into beer cans & degrading his ability to threaten more of Europe. 

[Lord Ratner]

5 hours ago, Blue said:

We're in a real live shooting war, and no one even bothered to ask the American people if they cared or not.

Even if we assume the first part of your sentence is accurate, when have declarations of war been made by Democratic election?

 

We are a representative republic.

[BFM this]

On 8/24/2022 at 6:52 PM, nsplayr said:

Also…do you know what money laundering actually is?

Can you explain how military aid sent to Ukraine could possible be structured as a way to churn ill-begotten profits from an illegal enterprise through a legitimate business in order for that money to appear “clean” to tax authorities?

Because that’s what money laundering is.

Wait…

Did you just quote Office Space as a snarky reply?

That’s actually funny

[Stoker]

19 hours ago, Blue said:

and no one even bothered to ask the American people if they cared or not.

We don't "ask the American people" what they want. That's not our system. Some states have elements of direct democracy, but our federal government has zero. Intentionally. The people get to vote, and their elected representatives get to decide how to spend that money, and if the legislature decides to delegate how to spend the money to the executive, well, consider that the next time you vote.

[SocialD]

22 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

This. Im done giving Uncle Sam one ounce of credibility. 

 

 

I'm astounded that anyone, who has deployed more than once in the last two decades, would still give them much more than an ounce or two of credibility.  Having deployed to the same location, 11 years apart, trip two was truly a demoralizing event, and solidified my decision to get out after current commitments to my boss (whom I truly respect).  It was same shit, different pile, made worse by an ROE that said, we have no business being here.  But hey, some defense contactors were making big bucks and our young guys got some good airline hours!  I look back and laugh at the time/effort (quasi witch hunt) that took place over a trivial missing item (maybe a few $K value), then months later we just say fuck it a leave untold millions (billions) behind.  What a fucking waste!

 

Signed,

Jaded old fuck 🤣

[TreeA10]

A longish article but an interesting take on Putins world view. 

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/world-putin-wants-fiona-hill-angela-stent?fbclid=IwAR1lWMagSxVtC_IeaNcEJTQcbCygMdWo1YkICCsuIQxG7Z0QuxN28ZmdFXE

[12xu2a3x3]

On 8/27/2022 at 11:40 AM, Blue said:

We keep littering the globe with advanced man-portable anti-aircraft missiles, we're not going to like the result. 

hi, I'm Johnny Knoxville and this is flood Ukraine with heavy weapons for the next fifty years 

[ClearedHot]

Migs with HARMs...human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together...Mass Hysteria....real wrath of god type of stuff

 

[DirkDiggler]

2 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Migs with HARMs...human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together...Mass Hysteria....real wrath of god type of stuff

 

Possible results of Ukrainian Wild Weasel sorties.

[nunya]

On 8/28/2022 at 11:02 AM, SocialD said:

I look back and laugh at the time/effort (quasi witch hunt) that took place over a trivial missing item (maybe a few $K value), then months later we just say fuck it a leave untold millions (billions) behind.  What a fucking waste!

We had to whisk a loadmaster out of Iraq because he left his M9 on a pallet during offload and the base cops wanted to arrest him.  Just think what damage ISIS could do with an M9!  

[FLEA]

16 minutes ago, nunya said:

We had to whisk a loadmaster out of Iraq because he left his M9 on a pallet during offload and the base cops wanted to arrest him.  Just think what damage ISIS could do with an M9!  

Honestly after the clustastrophuck that was the pullout, anyone who received discipline for leaving their sidearm in the shitter deserves a pardon. 

[ClearedHot]

2 hours ago, FLEA said:

Honestly after the clustastrophuck that was the pullout, anyone who received discipline for leaving their sidearm in the shitter deserves a pardon. 

One asshat got three stars for leaving his gun in the shitter.

[Biff_T]

3 hours ago, nunya said:

We had to whisk a loadmaster out of Iraq because he left his M9 on a pallet during offload and the base cops wanted to arrest him.  Just think what damage ISIS could do with an M9!  

I like that video where they're flying a f-ing Blackhawk! 

 

Edited August 30, 2022 by Biff_T
Video link added

[FourFans]

For posterity, I am on the side of arming the Ukrainians to defeat the Russians instead of fighting that with American or western European troops, but the world is never so perfect as to have a beautiful hollywood ending.  

Anyone wondering where this is going: watch Charlie Wilson's War, consider our experiences in Afghanistan, and then watch Send Me.  I don't think it foreshadows what will come in Ukraine, but that sequence does show the outcomes of decision making that fails to analyze possible impacts of 2nd and 3rd order effects of our actions or in-actions.

I'm sincerely hoping Ukraine comes out the other side of this as a free democratic nation allied to the West.  Even if they do, if we think the weapons that are getting sent there right now WON'T at some point kill westerners, we're naive.  If that's the cost of doing business, then so be it.  Hopefully we at least acknowledge and prepare for that outcome.

If ever we needed competent, courageous, and wise leaders to make tough and messy moral decisions, it's now.

Edited August 31, 2022 by FourFans130

[Pooter]

13 minutes ago, FourFans130 said:

For posterity, I am on the side of arming the Ukrainians to defeat the Russians instead of fighting that with American or western European troops, but the world is never so perfect as to have a beautiful hollywood ending.  

Anyone wondering where this is going: watch Charlie Wilson's War, consider our experiences in Afghanistan, and then watch Send Me.  I don't think it foreshadows what will come in Ukraine, but that sequence does show the outcomes of decision making that fails to analyze possible impacts of 2nd and 3rd order effects of our actions or in-actions.

I'm sincerely hoping Ukraine comes out the other side of this as a free democratic nation allied to the West.  Even if they do, if we think the weapons that are getting sent there right now WON'T at some point kill westerners, we're naive.  If that's the cost of doing business, then so be it.  Hopefully we at least acknowledge and prepare for that outcome.

If ever we needed competent, courageous, and wise leaders to make tough and messy moral decisions, it's now.

Spot on.  Perhaps American defense contractors should consider designing secret kill switches into all of our military tech...

Because we seem to be stuck in an endless cycle of arming countries in proxy wars vs Russia/China only to turn around and have the exact weapons we gave away used on us a few years later. 

[arg]

3 hours ago, Pooter said:

Spot on.  Perhaps American defense contractors should consider designing secret kill switches into all of our military tech...

Because we seem to be stuck in an endless cycle of arming countries in proxy wars vs Russia/China only to turn around and have the exact weapons we gave away used on us a few years later. 

If night two of Eagle Claw happened we would’ve been going against our own stuff, I Hawks, there was no kill switch. Intell said they were pretty sure they were in a state of disrepair.

[Prozac]

9 hours ago, FourFans130 said:

For posterity, I am on the side of arming the Ukrainians to defeat the Russians instead of fighting that with American or western European troops, but the world is never so perfect as to have a beautiful hollywood ending.  

Anyone wondering where this is going: watch Charlie Wilson's War, consider our experiences in Afghanistan, and then watch Send Me.  I don't think it foreshadows what will come in Ukraine, but that sequence does show the outcomes of decision making that fails to analyze possible impacts of 2nd and 3rd order effects of our actions or in-actions.

I'm sincerely hoping Ukraine comes out the other side of this as a free democratic nation allied to the West.  Even if they do, if we think the weapons that are getting sent there right now WON'T at some point kill westerners, we're naive.  If that's the cost of doing business, then so be it.  Hopefully we at least acknowledge and prepare for that outcome.

If ever we needed competent, courageous, and wise leaders to make tough and messy moral decisions, it's now.

Ukraine isn’t even close to Afghanistan though. It’s not even close to Iraq, Iran, or any number of third world conflicts where western weaponry has gone unaccounted for. I don’t think Charlie Wilson’s War is a remotely fair comparison here. Ukraine is (or was) basically a first world nation trying to align itself more closely with Europe and the West, not some failed state full of jihadists bent on ousting their infidel oppressors. If they win this thing or even stalemate, Europe ends up with a heavily armed actor on its eastern flank that’s proven it has the will and the ability to counter Russian aggression. This scenario has the potential to be very useful, as a strong non-NATO Ukraine could be an unpredictable wild card for Russian strategists. If they capitulate, well Russia ends up with some HIMARS, Javelins, and (now) HARMs that are most assuredly not our most capable versions of those weapons systems. Bad? Yeah probably, but not nearly the same thing as the Taliban parading around in American armored vehicles or the Islamic Republic of Iran inheriting a readymade Western air force. 

[GrndPndr]

Russian oil chief Ravil Maganov dies after ‘hospital fall’

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-oil-chief-ravil-maganov-dies-after-hospital-fall-hk0mjw5sb

I hope this is a free link, but wanted to add this little news item here.  I first thought this might be something from a movie...

[FLEA]

7 hours ago, Prozac said:

Ukraine isn’t even close to Afghanistan though. It’s not even close to Iraq, Iran, or any number of third world conflicts where western weaponry has gone unaccounted for. I don’t think Charlie Wilson’s War is a remotely fair comparison here. Ukraine is (or was) basically a first world nation trying to align itself more closely with Europe and the West, not some failed state full of jihadists bent on ousting their infidel oppressors. If they win this thing or even stalemate, Europe ends up with a heavily armed actor on its eastern flank that’s proven it has the will and the ability to counter Russian aggression. This scenario has the potential to be very useful, as a strong non-NATO Ukraine could be an unpredictable wild card for Russian strategists. If they capitulate, well Russia ends up with some HIMARS, Javelins, and (now) HARMs that are most assuredly not our most capable versions of those weapons systems. Bad? Yeah probably, but not nearly the same thing as the Taliban parading around in American armored vehicles or the Islamic Republic of Iran inheriting a readymade Western air force. 

This isn't a good assessment. Ukraine was the worlds largest source for black marketed ammunition and guns shortly after the Cold War. When the SU collapsed Ukraine was Europe's largest standing Army because Russia left them with the Black Sea Fleet as well as several major Army garrisons and a significant nuclear stockpile that they eventually handed back to Moscow. When their economy collapsed, they black marketed a lot of that equipment to the third world. This was only 20 years ago. Ukraine is far from a first world nation. 

That behavior persisted until as recently as 2017. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-arms-insight/ukraine-after-war-becomes-a-trove-for-black-market-arms-trade-idUSKCN1050ZE

I wouldn't classify Ukraine as a first world nation either. Their HDI is high .7's which is good but still significantly lagging the rest of Europe (they are similar to Mexico and Thailand). Only 10 years ago their HDI was where Iraq is today. (High 60s). They made enormous gains largely due to the infusion of western money. They were certainly on their way but I would not really categorize them in the same bin as the US, Japan, Western Europe, etc.... 

[FourFans]

23 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Ukraine was the worlds largest source for black marketed ammunition and guns shortly after the Cold War.

This is at the heart of my concern.  Let's assume best case, and Ukraine restores it's borders and kicks Russia out.  After that, they have to rebuild, which requires money.  Their strongest habit over the past two decades has been to sell whatever they can to whomever will pay.  Why do you think old USSR arms ended up all over Africa, SE Asia and SW Asia?  Fast forward to them funding their reconstruction, regardless how much money is pumped in by the west, the national habit of international arms sales will come right back into full swing.   Not looking forward to the likes of an Al-Shabab armed with Javelins and Stingers.  These things move.  Quickly. 

Imagine the headline of a South American nation having their federal agencies going against stingers and javelins.  Likely?  No.  Possible?  Definitely...and possible should be enough to move the needle...but I don't think it will be.  Like I said: Real leadership is required.

Strong leaders make for peaceful times that create weak men.  Weak leaders make for hard times that create strong men.  Take a guess where we are on that spectrum.

 

Edited September 1, 2022 by FourFans130

[Hugo Stiglitz]

7 hours ago, FourFans130 said:

Let's assume best case, and Ukraine restores it's borders and kicks Russia out.  After that, they have to rebuild, which requires money.

Just a thought, but in that scenario they’ll still have a border to protect and a neighbor with a history of continuing to meddle even after things are “settled.” UKR would be strapped for cash yes, but I’d think they’d have a compelling interest in retaining whatever self defense capability they held. I’m thinking more along the lines of Israel after Nickel Grass.

[ClearedHot]

 

[BashiChuni]

White House asking for 13 billion more for Ukraine. 
 

enough. 

[CaptainMorgan]

White House asking for 13 billion more for Ukraine. 
 
enough. 

Chump change compared to the $240 Billion for student loan relief, and a much better use of tax dollars imho.

Afterthought: student loan relief should only be given for those that travel to Ukraine to assist.


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