The Next President is...

[Guest]

When will you all realize the Democratic and Republican parties are two sides of the same coin? & no, no Lolbertarian, Green, Constitution or Independent is going to change it.

Donald Trump was at best an independently wealthy guy who did some good things and some bad things, and acted in a way many did and did not like.

Donald Trump was at worst controlled opposition who also said things people did and did not like.

No one is running for President and going to win unless they are independently wealthy with connections or completely chosen by some higher order. (((They))) control the entire process. The federal government is and has been doomed for decades now, at this point more than a century. It’s up to the States now to save this nation. Article V.

Edited October 9, 2021 by dogfish78

[Negatory]

1 hour ago, bfargin said:

We've gone so far left overall that the current American "conservatives" are at best classical liberals. I tend to lean further right on government intervention and power issues, but I'd be tickled to see rational players from either party step forward. In my dream world I imagine a Nikki Haley / Tulsi Gabbard team trying their hands at the helm. Further left than I would prefer, but would definitely be a huge improvement compared to what we've had for many, many years. But, who knows where they would actually land once in power?!

That’s ironic because I’ve heard the exact opposite argument stating that both parties are essentially different flavors of classical conservatives.

[bfargin]

7 minutes ago, Negatory said:

That’s ironic because I’ve heard the exact opposite argument stating that both parties are essentially different flavors of classical conservatives.

Not even close ... you must be listening to people who are ignorant. The left isn't even close to classically liberal much less conservative.

[Sim]

https://thefederalist.com/2021/10/07/joe-bidens-vaccine-mandate-doesnt-exist-its-just-a-press-release/

Quote

Yes, we’ve heard all about Joe Biden’s alleged vaccine mandate for private companies employing 100 or more people. It was all over the news even before he announced it on September 9. His announcement has jeopardized the employment of millions of Americans and increased worker shortages in critical domains such as health care.

There’s only one problem. It’s all a mirage. Biden’s so-called vaccine mandate doesn’t exist — at least, not yet. So far, all we have is his press conference and other such made-for-media huff-puffing. No such rule even claiming to be legally binding has been issued yet.

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Sim said:

https://thefederalist.com/2021/10/07/joe-bidens-vaccine-mandate-doesnt-exist-its-just-a-press-release/

 

Probably to scare millions into getting it because those people think they’ll be forced to get it eventually. It’s sad people think that way. They bend over for the pink haired Human Resources woman who says they shall take the experimental drug or else (interesting how you’re reduced to being a “human resource”, not a person). I’m curious if law was taught in grade school if there would be more employees sticking up against this “mandate”. It’s wonderful for the establishment though, they’ll claim plausible deniability ad infinitum. No matter what lawsuits they face (years after people are fired or coerced into taking it because the legal system is a tortoise), they’ll never be punished because the (((federal courts))) are controlled and even if they weren’t, they’ll say they never issued an official mandate, only spoke about maybe doing so. This type of behavior used to get people beheaded.

[ViperMan]

15 hours ago, kaputt said:

Hell no. It’s a ways off, but if Trump is the nominee in 2024 I may go 3rd party. Not super excited about that possibility, but that’s why I plan to vote in the primary next time and have some say on that aspect of the process.

Trump is no leader and his narcissistic personality is not going to reunite the country or set us back on the right path. He’s right on much of what he says and the policies he tried to implement, but it’s not always about just having the right ideas. You have to sell those ideas beyond just your base, and I think Trump struggled at that. Maybe I’m crazy, but I still believe there is someone out there in this country that can stand up to far leftist bullshit, be professional, and have the best interests of all Americans in mind, and still not bring the baggage that Donald Trump does. 

My best guess though, I don’t think Trump will run next cycle. Anyway, back to Biden saying gibberish from his White House set across the street from the actual White House. 

I predict that even if Trump doesn't run, the democrats will still frame whoever does as Trump 2.0. We won't be done hearing about Trump for a long time. It's too convenient and powerful a motivator for the left's base to let go of.

[Guest]

27 minutes ago, Negatory said:

I have never supported CRT, and there is not a single credible example of someone going to rationally discuss CRT that was placed on an FBI wish list.

You're talking about the same FBI that has been caught time and time again in recent years past committing unconstitutional acts. A problem with the FBI, much like the BATFE, DEA, and other federal "law enforcement" agencies under the DOJ is that they're unelected plus there's no real oversight to them. They don't care about the People of this nation. So when they're rotten to the core, along with their "oversight" (Congress) being rotten to the core, the People have no recourse like they do with state and local law enforcement.

They've been hiring FBI Special Agents for years now who have ZERO prior experience being a real law enforcement officer who has interacted with the public every day. Mostly these Special Agents are useful idiots at best, and unconstitutional tyrants at worst. The U.S. Attorney General literally commanded this week for the FBI to do what you posted that they're not doing...

Sure there are good Special Agents BUT those ones are kept far away from any investigations which may hurt the establishment. The establishment vetted ones are used to enforce the unconstitutional orders. Don't take my word for it; Ted Gunderson was a former Special Agent who exposed much of the tyranny being perpetrated by the FBI. Many like him as well.

Edited October 9, 2021 by dogfish78

[ViperMan]

12 minutes ago, Negatory said:

Inflation and "stimulus packages" were bought in the previous year before Biden took over. We went from 4 to 7T dollars of Fed Reserve spending in less than 6 months. But yes, this is the democrats fault.

Yes I believe that the unemployment incentives in blue states were a mistake. At the same time, I 100% empathize with the undeniable fact that there is literally no way to live any sort of a life under a 40 hour a week $15 an hour job. But that's where we differ, likely. The republican mantra is that these people should suffer until their life is better. I do not believe that bullshit.

You're biased to propaganda over the last 30 years - the specific propaganda basically boils down to "greed is good" - and I honestly know I'm not getting to you. The point is that if you make $10M-$1B a year, in most cases it's not through income - it's through capital gains and profiting off of labor. And if you think that the stock market is a "fair" system, especially with how it has gone up during the pandemic, you're delusional. People who benefit extremely from the designed inefficiencies should be reasonably expected to pay more. This is not a new thought. In fact, Republicans backed bills pre and post WWII to raise marginal income tax rates to 77-92% for the top earners. This is not a 2012 thing, this is actually a history thing. Love of the rich - from people like you - is something that is new in history. The ironic thing is that Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are paying total effective tax rates closer to 0% because all of their net worth is tied up in the stock market as unrealized gains. 

And your facts about income inequality are pretty out of touch. Yeah, you've proven my point. The top 1% pays more tax and makes way more than everyone else. Cool. They should.

Let me put it to you another way. Your big-brain example about how everyone should be paying the same taxes as it would be better and more fair (school teachers and high net worth individuals): Do you currently support raising taxes on school teachers by about double?

Simple question.

The flaw in the system is that you don't have to contribute to the system at all once you have a certain nest egg. You just sit and reap the benefits off the work of everyone else by throwing it in the stock market. You will say there is risk, but let's be real. The Fed will just pump $7-11T in to protect your rich ass or bail you out.

As I have stated numerous times on this forum, I support vaccine mandates that stop transmission and sickness. For the alpha variant, this was likely the case, so I supported the mandate. With Delta, science is showing it is significantly less effective, so I may have a different opinion.

I have never supported CRT, and there is not a single credible example of someone going to rationally discuss CRT that was placed on an FBI wish list. I am not going to address the blatant fallacies in your secondary example, but if you want to have a more rational discussion about it, I encourage you to rewrite.

#1 - is months of saying you're going to leave no notice?

#2 - Trump actually committed to what almost everyone calls an unconditional withdrawal in 2020. Get your facts straight

#3 - Afghanistan is not our ally

#4 - Yes, the Trump administration did negotiate with the Taliban to create an unconditional withdrawal. https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-middle-east-taliban-doha-e6f48507848aef2ee849154604aa11be

#5 - Yeah, I'm mad about this. But did we leave Americans that were trying to get out behind? Or is this political grandstanding to the extreme? And I'm not looking for a onesie-twosie example. We got the overwhelming majority of Americans out.

#6 - You can't talk out of both sides of your mouth and say that you like Trumps anti-NATO isolationist policies and then get mad when we do something they don't like. Also, how did we screw NATO? I know you were just trying to make a list, but I don't think this one should have made it.

#7 - Oh give me a break from your bias:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/british-parliament-condemns-trump-but-remains-split-over-banning-him/

https://www.thedailybeast.com/fascist-evil-racist-uk-parliament-unloads-on-trumps-twitter-outburst

#8 - You're cherrypicking again. Like anyone in the DoD is actually mad about this.

We've already argued about this. You think it was worth the Trillions of US dollars to be in Afghanistan. I think it was worth anything to get out. Afghanistan's fall is primarily on Afghani's is my opinion. And, I know deep down, that's most peoples opinion. Or maybe we can blame the effectiveness of military FAOs, Commanders, and trainers over the last 20 years, I guess.

We had to leave.

This is greenwashing bullshit. You want to know something? We could have gone entirely almost zero carbon emissions 30 years ago. Oh, how? Nuclear fission energy. We have the capability right now. Literally right now. You thinking that Fusion would change this dynamic is whataboutism to the extreme.

Also, an overwhelming amount of Chinese emissions exist to produce American consumed goods. Look it up.

Barreling towards the collapse of the world to maintain your American lifestyle just because you don't want other countries to have a slightly better standard will be a good way to reflect on the collapse of modern society in the late 2000's.

Appreciate the specific responses that were based on facts and pure opinions.

You write a lot of words, and have some decent ideas. The core problem with your argument is that it doesn't effectively address people without skin in the game. No matter how much money we print, we will never be able to print enough to deal with a never ending stream of handouts.

re: the "wealth" issues you address - the value of labor has declined tremendously over the past number of decades. Or perhaps a better way to couch it is the value of different labor has become wickedly differentiated. Reasons include - globalization, technology, and women entering the work force. No one wants people suffering, but there's also the reality that our country has created plenty of industries and jobs that were never designed to be able to push someone's standard of living beyond the boundaries of their parents' basements (i.e. fast food, Walmart greeter, etc). These jobs are important because they provide avenues to join the labor force that certain groups otherwise would not have. Pour onto that a massive increase in the number of people who can compete for jobs, and what you get is a decrease in the value of the commodity you provide (i.e. labor). That has nothing to do with communism, socialism, or capitalism - it is pure, uncontaminated, economic fact. Note: I don't have a great solution to this problem.

There is already widespread agreement about the rich paying more than the poor - it's baked into the core of our system. See, 10% of more is greater than 10% of less. The "graduated" rates we pay as we move up are only incentives to corrupt the system. And I think we can all agree that is what we have. Forcing people to pay their actual "fair" share is a way to ensure no one is getting a free ride. And when we look at the fact that the bottom 50% of "taxpayers" in this country pay about 3% of the taxes that is where the unfairness lies and that is where the distortion is. It ain't fair that there are this many people in the country who extract vastly more than they contribute.

As my favorite example of distortion, take a look at the effects of California's prop 13 - the law enacted that protects people's original tax rates back in the 1970s. It has created a class of gilded land owners who can pass their 'heritance down to their heirs. It's fucked up, no matter how you look at it (https://www.officialdata.org/ca-property-tax/#37.43748019180391,-122.1928891539574,19). There's a zoom on a random neighbor hood of SF for you. Some people pay upwards of $90,000/yr in property taxes, while their neighbors pay less than $100/yr. I'm pretty right-leaning, but I think even people on the left would think this is wildly unjust. The left's notion that all the "extraction" of value is happening at the top is complete and total bullshit.

But hey, I'm sure it'll all get better as we rush to collapse our monetary system - I know of many historical precedents wherein global powers have decided to just print their way to prosperity, eat the rich, and destroy their middle class. Works every time, really.

[Prosuper]

Been reading all these comments, I wonder if it was like this for officers before the Civil War given orders to march to their home states. LT Col Robert E Lee USA being offered command of all Union Armies just to turn it down knowing that he would have been ordered to kill Rebel Virginians. Myself being retired and USAF civil service, being just given a ultimatum to comply  with the covid shot, I took it way back in Feb BTW but it was my choice and I am scared of what my long term health prospects are. I believe our Federal Govt leaders are corrupt to the core and pray the states call a convention of states just to start over. I'm just hoping I can make it to my Colorado cabin in a year and half and live out my days being left alone.

[brabus]

19 hours ago, Negatory said:

At the same time, I 100% empathize with the undeniable fact that there is literally no way to live any sort of a life under a 40 hour a week $15 an hour job.

Not that I disagree with your literal statement, but I do disagree that such a situation is unavoidable for adults (at least it is far more unavoidable than the Dems like to make it seem). A couple local examples:

1. I have several friends who own their businesses (builder, excavation, roofing); they have vacancies paying $25/hr (and if we’re honest, there’s a lot of “under the table” paying going on). They also pay a lot more than that to many of their employees who have been with them for a while/acquired new skills while on the job. It’s hard for them to find people, let alone keep them.

2. Local area power companies (the 2 I have personal connection two) are begging for lineman. They are offering to pay $25-30k for the training/certs, and within 4 years that person is making 6 figures. Blew my mind, but it’s true. 
 

What do I see scattered all over street corners the past 6-9 mo? Abled-body men under 40 begging for money (while also getting Covid handouts I bet). They’re not disheveled, sitting in wheel chairs, etc. Many of them look like they probably work out at a local gym daily and are pretty healthy. I’ve heard every excuse in the book about these people, but when it comes down to it, they can swing a fucking hammer, they’re just too lazy to do it…they want easy money they don’t have to put effort towards. 
 

The point: Min wage is a bit of a smoke and mirrors discussion, the RC is not $15/hr (plenty for the HS kid), because we haven’t asked/answered the question why there are so many jobs out there that pay well above Min wage/offer substantially more than “that McDs job,” yet people walk right past them complaining about the “rich folk holding me down!” Barring significant medical problems preventing work, I believe the RC for these situations is our society rewards laziness while breeding ungratefulness and a weak work ethic/sense of personal responsibility. 

Edited October 10, 2021 by brabus

[ClearedHot]

20 hours ago, Negatory said:

Lots of angry words, DNC talking points and insults.

I hope your anger keeps you warm this winter.

[HeloDude]

I’m sure bringing in even more unskilled labor into the US via illegal immigration will help raise wages of other unskilled American workers…

Supply vs Demand…or something.

[ViperMan]

1 hour ago, Negatory said:

I agree with most of what you’re saying. I think the actual RC is we create blanket policy that shouldn’t be applied across the US. For example, I would support minimum wage in Arkansas to be closer to $8 an hour, but I would want minimum wage in LA to be $20 an hour.

Your point that 10% of 10M is more than 10% of $50k doesn’t resonate with me. The $5k the family now making $45k has to pay will orders of magnitude more affect their ability to have a basic quality of like than the $1M dollars the person now making $9M dollars will have to pay. In fact, that rich dude could be taxed at 50%, make $5M dollars, and still make over 100 times what a blue collar salary is. Would you argue the economy isn’t being “fair” enough to the guy who made $5M dollars? Is it impacting them, really?

Your point about distortion I don’t exactly understand where you’re going. I agree rent control and utility control are bad for everyone.

Both parties are pumping money into equities to hold up the facade. The only real solution is a more tightly controlled economy that favors the worker - a la 1950-1980.

My overarching position is that progressive taxes are good for society. As I’ve said, there is scant evidence trickle down economics improves the average American’s life.

On a side note, extremely happy about the global tax that will disincentive American companies from basing in islands or Ireland. I do wonder what type of propaganda is being thrown right now to convince the average conservative voter that tax shelters and loopholes are good for them.

Yeah, I didn't go into it in enough detail really. My point re: distortion in the system is that many people believe that there is a simple fix to the "pay your fair share" meme that has taken over our (financial) political discourse. Pointing towards the distorting effect that prop 13 has on individuals' relative property tax rates is a way to point at something that is, direct, real, and present which results in a massive differential tax rate between neighbors, but that few people see or understand. I think with as complex as our tax code is, that there are other instances like this that are replete throughout the system. Point being, I don't think it's as simple as just increasing the upper end of the tax rates to compensate for budget shortfalls and shitty planning.

It's fine if that doesn't resonate with you. It does with me. My fundamental belief is that our government is the "thing" that we ALL share and participate in which helps to direct and guide our mutual lives. The problem now, is that there are massive and increasing numbers of people who only take. i.e. they participate in it, but they don't share in it. They have no skin in the game, and their only votes are for more stuff for themselves. That is not a path to a sustainable system - I don't care what philosophy says that it is - it just ain't. Plus, if we really believed that these social programs were working, why not just blanket increase taxes across the board, and then would it even matter? I mean they're paying more, but they're getting more, right? Something tells me there's more to it than that, though...

Eventually, I'm concerned we will reach a breaking point, where the value of your dollar becomes so diminished that it motivates "capital" to find a different system to participate in - why do you think crypto is such a thing all of a sudden? We need to be very concerned about unwittingly destroying the thing that keeps this whole train rollin'.

[Guardian]

The top 1% of earners pay 40% of the taxes taken in.

[ClearedHot]

3 hours ago, Negatory said:

Is this how you cop out when someone points out fallacious arguments or mistruths in almost every one of your points? I mean, this is the mentality you have to have to make O-6 in the Air Force, so let’s not say I’m surprised.

And I’ll just remind you that you’re the one who created an itemized list of reasons why I shouldn’t be glad we have Biden over Trump, and then you got offended when I provided any support of that list. Projection is a cruel thing, buddy.

Address the points or agree to disagree.

Very simple, when you start dropping insults...just like your passive aggressive comment above...the "discussion" is over.  Your reply is riddled with anger rather than logic so I see no real point is going back and forth. 

[Guest]

@Negatory

[ClearedHot]

1 hour ago, Guardian said:

The top 1% of earners pay 40% of the taxes taken in.

And it is still not enough according to some!

Even if everyone paid the same rate (and I am not saying it should be that way), if I made 10 times as much I would pay ten times as much...but that is not enough.  Under the current progressive tax structure I pay 36.5 times as much...but I am greedy?  Make ZERO sense. 

No other country in the world offers so much opportunity.  In this great country the only thing standing between you and wealth is hard work. 

[Prozac]

9 minutes ago, dogfish78 said:

@Negatory

Surprise! 

[brabus]

8 hours ago, Negatory said:

Your point is that easily acquired, skilled blue collar labor jobs exist

They literally do, though I’m not speaking for the entire US, but in my state, they’re everywhere. Maybe not where you are, and I’ll take your word for it. Though I’m also guessing we’re not the only state in the union with employers other than min wage fast food looking for workers.

 

8 hours ago, Negatory said:

No longer can you pay for your child and better yourself. No longer can you purchase a house on a union job. No longer can you support your family on one salary.

Hyperbole and false. Hard work can get you very far in this country. I’m not saying shitty circumstances don’t exist or people can’t have bad timing/a run of bad luck. This is victim mentality at its finest and serves no positive purpose. 

[Sua Sponte]

On 10/9/2021 at 4:26 PM, Prosuper said:

Been reading all these comments, I wonder if it was like this for officers before the Civil War given orders to march to their home states. LT Col Robert E Lee USA being offered command of all Union Armies just to turn it down knowing that he would have been ordered to kill Rebel Virginians. Myself being retired and USAF civil service, being just given a ultimatum to comply  with the covid shot, I took it way back in Feb BTW but it was my choice and I am scared of what my long term health prospects are. I believe our Federal Govt leaders are corrupt to the core and pray the states call a convention of states just to start over. I'm just hoping I can make it to my Colorado cabin in a year and half and live out my days being left alone.

Left alone in Colorado? Apparently you haven’t seen the massive amount of Californians and Texans who have moved here in the past 10 years.

[M2]

26 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

Left alone in Colorado? Apparently you haven’t seen the massive amount of Californians and Texans who have moved here in the past 10 years.

Well, to be fair, about a third of Colorado, over half of New Mexico and even some of Kansas, Oklahoma and Wyoming were Texas at one point; so we're just taking back territory...

[Sua Sponte]

32 minutes ago, M2 said:

Well, to be fair, about a third of Colorado, over half of New Mexico and even some of Kansas, Oklahoma and Wyoming were Texas at one point; so we're just taking back territory...

Can’t take over anything if you’re always in in the ditch of I-25/I-70 in the winter 🤣

[jazzdude]

No other country in the world offers so much opportunity.  In this great country the only thing standing between you and wealth is hard work. 

I'll add that it's not just hard work. Just like in an AF career, luck and timing are also important, if not more so, and can significantly change your outcome in life.

[jazzdude]

Yes, hard work is important, and having a good work ethic can open some doors. But luck and timing are important as well and often ignored, and good luck and good timing are often attributed to just working hard and being rewarded for that hard work. But there's also a lot of other factors at play, which may limit the opportunities a person can take depending on their tolerance for risk(aka how lucky do they feel).

Wages haven't kept up with increases productivity. Minimum wage hasn't kept up with inflation.

Another problem is a generation has been sold on college debt: having a college degree, any degree, would open doors to better pay and jobs. That might have been true when degrees were rare, but now the market is flooded with degrees and lessened their value. (This is why college for all would fail, and why I don't agree with calls to make college "free" for everyone. Plus most of the information can be learned for free online out with library resources, so it's not a access to knowledge problem) Unfortunately for the individual, they become saddled with debt they can't discharge via bankruptcy, and can drive getting stuck in a bad job because they can't afford to take a pay cut to transition to a better field of work or to restart in a new trade. That debt and need to meet basic necessities may mean they also don't have the means to save for their future goals, whether it's retirement, a house, etc.

Also related is that healthcare is tired to jobs in the US, so medical needs may cause someone to remain in a job because they can't risk losing medical coverage.

On the flip side, lots of jobs now want to see a 4 year degree in their applicants, even when it has no bearing on the job itself. This perpetuates the notion that you "need" a 4 year degree. For example, registered nurses. You can become an RN with a 2 year degree. Except most "good" nursing jobs want a 4 year degree in nursing (BSN). However, there's is nothing a BSN can do that an RN can't do, they hold the same professional certification as RN. You could argue they want the soft skills associated with a bachelors degree, but you'd be wrong, they ignore other degrees in hiring.

There's also lots of assumptions built into our way of life, such as transportation.

Housing is cheaper the further you get from desirable areas (and one of the reasons why we have suburban sprawl). This includes places of work, and generally drives people to require transportation to/from work. In a large city with a decent public transportation system, a person could get by without a car (which saves on several costs, including insurance, gas, and parking). But in smaller cities and towns, cars become more important, because they buy you time. A 15 minute commute by car could be an hour via public transportation, if it exists. Shortening the commute to something walkable/bikeable isn't usually feasible (ref. housing costs near desirable locations), so that's typically out. This could drive other hidden costs, like increased child care costs due to the extra time needed to commute to work.

None of these are easy problems to solve. But "work harder" is a gross oversimplification of the problem. (I think it's about as bad as telling AF pilots they should be happy in their job and don't need a bonus, and shouldn't complain about the ops tempo because it's what they signed up to do).

[ClearedHot]

Sorry but all I hear is a lot of excuses. 

Is there risk, absolutely but there are many thousands of millionaires and hundreds of billionaires that started with nothing.  Immigrants who arrived with $100 in their pocket and they somehow overcame all the drag of no college degree, low wages, housing and poor transportation.