What's a PPL run these days? $15K? Plus the free time to fly and study? In addition to participating in organized athletics (which also involves time and cost). That's a huge hurdle to overcome to increase your chances, especially if you're trying to remain competitive in other selection factors (grades, athletics, community service). That being said, the AF is trying to help bring more people who may not be able to afford a PPL into the selection pool (including minorities/women) with scholarships for PPLs: https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Holm-Center/AFJROTC/Flight-Academy/ Plus, generally UPT studs who have (only) a PPL are generally indistinguishable from those who don't by the end of the first T-6 contact checkride. My hunch is that having a PPL decreases your odds of washing out (initial solo is one of the big milestones), mainly because having previous flying experience makes the learning early on a bit easier on average and making that individual a safer investment for the AF. One problem in modeling (like figuring out who to select for UPT) is once you identify a maximum in the model (like maximizing UPT graduation rate based on selection factors), the question becomes "is that a local maximum, or absolute maximum." In other words, just because I find a peak in the model, doesn't mean I've necessarily found the best solution in the solution space. You may also have potentially competing goals (minimizing UPT washout vs producing the most skilled pilots). Maybe selecting athletes produces a handful of "great" tactical pilots, but if there's a higher washout rate, is it worth the cost? Or is it better to select to minimize washout rates and accept "average" or "acceptable" pilots (if the minimums weren't good enough, they'd be higher...)? For better or for worse, pilots run the AF. If we select pilots to only focus on being the best tactically, it hurts our ability to groom operational and strategic level planners with tactical experience (unless the AF were to allow non-pilots to fill those higher level roles). At the same time, focusing solely on the operational and strategic levels may leave us unable to win at the tactical level to achieve those operational/strategic goals. So we need a mix of pilots with different skills, backgrounds, and career desires. And since the AF is run by pilots, it acts as the greatest filter into who is allowed to lead within the AF, so it gets a lot of scrutiny.