Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[BashiChuni]

with all the clamoring for a cease fire in gaza why no appetite for cease fire in ukraine?

[tac airlifter]

16 hours ago, BashiChuni said:

with all the clamoring for a cease fire in gaza why no appetite for cease fire in ukraine?

Same reason we must defend democracy in Ukraine but not Israel.

[ClearedHot]

Ukraine uses secretly shipped U.S. missiles to launch surprise strike

Ukraine says it destroyed 9 Russian helicopters in airfield attacks

 

[DirkDiggler]

Always a good morning waking up to burning Russian equipment.

[StoleIt]

On 10/14/2023 at 8:47 PM, BashiChuni said:

with all the clamoring for a cease fire in gaza why no appetite for cease fire in ukraine?

If the Russians pull out (STS) and return all the occupied land to the pre-2021, aw hell lets make it 2014, time frame then I'm sure the conflict in Ukraine would be over tomorrow.

[pawnman]

10 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Ukraine uses secretly shipped U.S. missiles to launch surprise strike

Ukraine says it destroyed 9 Russian helicopters in airfield attacks

 

But I'm sure someone will be along to tell us this is what Russia looks like when they're winning and how we're wasting our resources in Ukraine.

I'm with Dirk. Its always a good day to watch Russian equipment roll up in a fireball.

[gearhog]

7 hours ago, pawnman said:

But I'm sure someone will be along to tell us this is what Russia looks like when they're winning and how we're wasting our resources in Ukraine.

I'm with Dirk. Its always a good day to watch Russian equipment roll up in a fireball.

If you want to take a shot at me, grow a spine and do so directly. Obviously, you're a big fan of indirect engagement, but I think it's a weak way to handle your business. I could draw it out for you in crayon and stick figures, and you'd still be incapable of understanding. I do not support Russia, and you're a fool for believing you, me, and the people we care about will experience a better life as a result of this. You're watching the conflict unfold from a half a planet away, and through a soda straw, while nutting in your underoos because you saw a bad guy get exploded. Ok, enough insults. 😄

Here's what I see: a great unraveling of global political, social, and economic orders. Consequences of unlimited growth in world of finite resources. Thucydidies trap. A bunch of 80 year olds spending our nation into oblivion to settle old conflicts before they kick it.

Some napkin math I just did: The average price, per acre, of land in Ukraine is $580. Russia has assumed control of approx 30 million acres of mostly farmland. That's $17 Billion dollars. For the $113 Billion we've spent, and gotten nothing, we could have bought the land, built homes and infrastructure, and populated the area with Mexicans, Palestinians, Ukrainians, Africans, Americans, Liberals, Transvestites, whomever... and still had money left over. NATO could have thrown Russia into chaos without a single weapon. This whole thing is hilariously insane.

So yeah, big f'n waste.

 

 

[ClearedHot]

1 hour ago, gearhog said:

If you want to take a shot at me, grow a spine and do so directly. Obviously, you're a big fan of indirect engagement, but I think it's a weak way to handle your business. I could draw it out for you in crayon and stick figures, and you'd still be incapable of understanding. I do not support Russia, and you're a fool for believing you, me, and the people we care about will experience a better life as a result of this. You're watching the conflict unfold from a half a planet away, and through a soda straw, while nutting in your underoos because you saw a bad guy get exploded. Ok, enough insults. 😄

Here's what I see: a great unraveling of global political, social, and economic orders. Consequences of unlimited growth in world of finite resources. Thucydidies trap. A bunch of 80 year olds spending our nation into oblivion to settle old conflicts before they kick it.

Some napkin math I just did: The average price, per acre, of land in Ukraine is $580. Russia has assumed control of approx 30 million acres of mostly farmland. That's $17 Billion dollars. For the $113 Billion we've spent, and gotten nothing, we could have bought the land, built homes and infrastructure, and populated the area with Mexicans, Palestinians, Ukrainians, Africans, Americans, Liberals, Transvestites, whomever... and still had money left over. NATO could have thrown Russia into chaos without a single weapon. This whole thing is hilariously insane.

So yeah, big f'n waste.

I respect your views but with regard to Russia, it is not about the price per acre of Ukrainian land.  Instead, Russia has been humbled, their Army is in tatters and they are no longer a threat to the rest of Europe and beyond.  You've invested in the geopolitics and some of the economics, look at the demographics, this is a turning point for them and it will take a generation to recovery...if they ever do. 

Demographic wise the U.S. population in the late 60's was around 200 million, we lost 55,000 Americans over 20 years in Vietnam and it changed our country.  Russia today is a country of 143 million and they have lost approximately 120,000 in a year and a half.  Russian birthrates are again on the decline after a sight recovery to years ago, they are in real trouble.

Bottomline, for about 15% of the DoD budget we have taken a superpower out of play without the loss of any U.S. troops...that my friend is not a waste, it is a bargain.

[Blue]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

Instead, Russia has been humbled, their Army is in tatters and they are no longer a threat to the rest of Europe and beyond.

How, exactly, was Russia a thread to Europe and beyond before all of this?

[ClearedHot]

8 minutes ago, Blue said:

How, exactly, was Russia a thread to Europe and beyond before all of this?

Seriously?

Over the past past 10-15 years via proxy and direct action Putin has been trying to rebuild the FSU.  Have you heard of the little incursion into Crimea in 2014, that successful effort certainly emboldened him to do more.  Myself and others believe that if Ukraine folded quickly as many thought, Putin would continue efforts west.  A lot of people have been sounding the alarm the past few years, a few good outlines of what they have been doing and the implications can be found here and here .

[Stoker]

41 minutes ago, Blue said:

How, exactly, was Russia a thread to Europe and beyond before all of this?

Before they invaded Europe, they weren't a threat to Europe. And before he got shot in the head, President Lincoln really enjoyed the play.

[Lord Ratner]

The Ukrainians are not being forced to fight. They are doing so (at a national level) of their own free will. Obviously they would not be able to do it without our support, but that doesn't change the fact that the United States is not forcing Ukraine into fighting for longer.

 

So when people start talking about the morality of throwing Ukrainian bodies into the meat grinder, I find it curious that they do not consider the Ukrainian point of view on whether it is a worthwhile loss of life to resist Russia. Personally, I trust the Ukrainian perspective on whether you Ukrainian lives are worth resisting Russia. Certainly more so than I trust the opinion of Americans who, while many of us have served our country and suffered for it, none of us have been even remotely close to living under an authoritarian boot. The Ukrainian memory goes back a while.

 

I said from the start that I believe the concept of sovereignty is vital in both the moral sense and in preserving some sort of global stability. So I'm inclined to support any country that is in a war of sovereignty, which Ukraine very much is. Arguing about Russian borders from before the Cold war seems silly and irrelevant to me, as the USSR waged a decades long war to build their empire and lost. Losing the western territories was part of that loss. There is no allowance to the concept of sovereignty for historical borders.

 

I also do not believe as many populist republicans seem to believe that there is a world where we can isolate and avoid conflict. I see the coming storm as inevitable, and given the opportunity to annihilate the fighting forces of one of the most likely major adversaries in the coming conflict, I say we take it. Again, I would not support expending American lives to do so, and I certainly wouldn't support forcing the Ukrainians to expend their lives, but so long as they are willing, I believe the cost is worth it. When you compare that cost to the other things we are deficit spending on, it might be the greatest deal in the history of Fiat currency. What better way to spend made up money?

 

Would I support the same action against China? You betcha. If China wants to try to invade another country, and that country can bleed their military out using our intelligence and weaponry, and the people of that country are willing to fight, it's a no-brainer. Taking two geopolitical adversaries off the board before our economic death spiral starts to seriously impact our ability to project global power would be an incredible advantage going into the fourth turning. 

 

I think part of the key difference is that the populist conservative movement (best exemplified by Tucker Carlson) seems to believe that there is an option for some sort of perpetual status quo going forward, if only we don't rock the boat too hard. I disagree emphatically with that belief. History moves in waves, and just like real waves, trying to stop them is pointless, and potentially fatal. Move with them, even try to ride them, and you might end up on top. Might.

[DirkDiggler]

10 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

The Ukrainians are not being forced to fight. They are doing so (at a national level) of their own free will. Obviously they would not be able to do it without our support, but that doesn't change the fact that the United States is not forcing Ukraine into fighting for longer.

 

So when people start talking about the morality of throwing Ukrainian bodies into the meat grinder, I find it curious that they do not consider the Ukrainian point of view on whether it is a worthwhile loss of life to resist Russia. Personally, I trust the Ukrainian perspective on whether you Ukrainian lives are worth resisting Russia. Certainly more so than I trust the opinion of Americans who, while many of us have served our country and suffered for it, none of us have been even remotely close to living under an authoritarian boot. The Ukrainian memory goes back a while.

 

I said from the start that I believe the concept of sovereignty is vital in both the moral sense and in preserving some sort of global stability. So I'm inclined to support any country that is in a war of sovereignty, which Ukraine very much is. Arguing about Russian borders from before the Cold war seems silly and irrelevant to me, as the USSR waged a decades long war to build their empire and lost. Losing the western territories was part of that loss. There is no allowance to the concept of sovereignty for historical borders.

 

I also do not believe as many populist republicans seem to believe that there is a world where we can isolate and avoid conflict. I see the coming storm as inevitable, and given the opportunity to annihilate the fighting forces of one of the most likely major adversaries in the coming conflict, I say we take it. Again, I would not support expending American lives to do so, and I certainly wouldn't support forcing the Ukrainians to expend their lives, but so long as they are willing, I believe the cost is worth it. When you compare that cost to the other things we are deficit spending on, it might be the greatest deal in the history of Fiat currency. What better way to spend made up money?

 

Would I support the same action against China? You betcha. If China wants to try to invade another country, and that country can bleed their military out using our intelligence and weaponry, and the people of that country are willing to fight, it's a no-brainer. Taking two geopolitical adversaries off the board before our economic death spiral starts to seriously impact our ability to project global power would be an incredible advantage going into the fourth turning. 

 

I think part of the key difference is that the populist conservative movement (best exemplified by Tucker Carlson) seems to believe that there is an option for some sort of perpetual status quo going forward, if only we don't rock the boat too hard. I disagree emphatically with that belief. History moves in waves, and just like real waves, trying to stop them is pointless, and potentially fatal. Move with them, even try to ride them, and you might end up on top. Might.

Very well said.

[ecugringo]

Arent Ukrainian Males in forced conscription?  So yeah they kinda are forced to fight.

The war goes back to 2014 with the Maiden uprising.  Losing the pro Russia govt is what pushed Putin. The question is how involved was the US in those uprisings?  State Dept was there.  Not saying this is just cause for Putin but an expansion eastward of Western influence put him in a defensive position.

A question to ask is if/when western support dries up in Ukraine and Russia eventually wins...will that loss of life be worth it for Ukraine?  Did we just help delay the inevitable and cause more death and destruction for a goal of making Putin's military weaker.

I dont think Putin is stupid.  I think a lot of things going on now are all related.

[pawnman]

20 minutes ago, ecugringo said:

Arent Ukrainian Males in forced conscription?  So yeah they kinda are forced to fight.

The war goes back to 2014 with the Maiden uprising.  Losing the pro Russia govt is what pushed Putin. The question is how involved was the US in those uprisings?  State Dept was there.  Not saying this is just cause for Putin but an expansion eastward of Western influence put him in a defensive position.

A question to ask is if/when western support dries up in Ukraine and Russia eventually wins...will that loss of life be worth it for Ukraine?  Did we just help delay the inevitable and cause more death and destruction for a goal of making Putin's military weaker.

I dont think Putin is stupid.  I think a lot of things going on now are all related.

Individual Ukrainians may, in fact, be drafted into service. That's not the point being made. The point being made is that the government of Ukraine could stop fighting at any point. The US and NATO aren't forcing Ukraine to fight, we're enabling a decision  they made for themselves.

[ecugringo]

1 hour ago, pawnman said:

Individual Ukrainians may, in fact, be drafted into service. That's not the point being made. The point being made is that the government of Ukraine could stop fighting at any point. The US and NATO aren't forcing Ukraine to fight, we're enabling a decision  they made for themselves.

I agree

[uhhello]

3 hours ago, ecugringo said:

Arent Ukrainian Males in forced conscription?  So yeah they kinda are forced to fight.

The war goes back to 2014 with the Maiden uprising.  Losing the pro Russia govt is what pushed Putin. The question is how involved was the US in those uprisings?  State Dept was there.  Not saying this is just cause for Putin but an expansion eastward of Western influence put him in a defensive position.

A question to ask is if/when western support dries up in Ukraine and Russia eventually wins...will that loss of life be worth it for Ukraine?  Did we just help delay the inevitable and cause more death and destruction for a goal of making Putin's military weaker.

I dont think Putin is stupid.  I think a lot of things going on now are all related.

At every setback/defeat/victory in the last 2 years, there is always the comment of "I don't think Putin is stupid".  Every time there was a fuckup, there were people there to state "this is all part of the plan".  How long does this go on?  I don't think Putin is necessarily stupid but he certainly isn't smart.  He was fed a bunch of non-stop bullshit on the state of his forces and he believed it.  He DRASITCALLY underestimated the will of the Ukrainian people and more importantly the will of the western world to supply and defend them.  

[gearhog]

5 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

I respect your views but with regard to Russia, it is not about the price per acre of Ukrainian land.  Instead, Russia has been humbled, their Army is in tatters and they are no longer a threat to the rest of Europe and beyond.  You've invested in the geopolitics and some of the economics, look at the demographics, this is a turning point for them and it will take a generation to recovery...if they ever do. 

Demographic wise the U.S. population in the late 60's was around 200 million, we lost 55,000 Americans over 20 years in Vietnam and it changed our country.  Russia today is a country of 143 million and they have lost approximately 120,000 in a year and a half.  Russian birthrates are again on the decline after a sight recovery to years ago, they are in real trouble.

Bottomline, for about 15% of the DoD budget we have taken a superpower out of play without the loss of any U.S. troops...that my friend is not a waste, it is a bargain.

True, I typed that partially in jest, but partially to make the point that we are contributing a portion of your and my productive value to a conflict over land that has little intrinsic value. So if we're not protecting the land,  what is it we are receiving in return for our investment in this conflict?

 "We're taking out a global superpower." Why is anyone calling Russia a superpower? Primacy of learning. We were taught as kids that they were the big baddies 40 years ago and forgot to check and see if they still met the criteria. Look at the infographic I posted above. They're number 10 or 11 in the world economy. It is because they have nukes? They're one of maybe 10. They're no more a superpower than Brazil or Italy. What is the only thing Russia has going for it? Energy. Something that is finite in supply and the rest of the world, especially the West, has a growing appetite for. The real lesson here is "Don't fuck with the petro-dollar." Soverignty, Freedom, Anti-Authoritism, is all made up BS to garner public support. Those things exist en masse in countless places around the globe. Somehow it only matters when energy and wealth are involved.

"It's a bargain". I have sister-in-law that that likes to shop. They're in a $350K house, up to their assholes in debt, and she's bringing home some bullshit knick-knack doo-dads because they were a good deal at 50% off. Well, he, an engineer, recently got a pink slip because the DoD decided they really didn't robot fuel trucks as bad as weapons for Ukraine and now I'm supposed to bail them out by buying their things they shouldn't have charged to the credit card in the first place. Sorry, that's your debt, not mine. Who is buying our debt? China currently owns about a trillion dollars worth of US treasuries. In a conflict, they would use that to wreck our economy. By indebting ourselves to fight one foe, we're exposing ourselves to another.

"They're a threat to Europe and the West." I've asked this before. If all it took was a throwing a bargain sum of money at the problem to stop Russia a few miles into Ukraine, how were they ever a threat to anyone that really matters? What's the score card on former Soviet republics joining NATO vs. joining Russia. After decades watching them being absorbed into the other team, Russia finally decides to take a stand over the shittiest and most corrupt one of the bunch. I'd say have at it. Let UKR be the anchor around their neck for next few decades, because that's exactly what they're gonna be for us. Sort of like Greece for the European Union.

120,000 of 143,000,000 is eight one-hundredths of one percent. If 15% of the DoD budget is an insignificant number, what is .08% of Russian population? I do agree with you, however. Overall, Russia is facing a demographic problem and has been since long before this war. The war isn't moving the needle. But if they are facing a demographic collapse, wouldn't that further substantiate my position that they were/are not a viable threat?

I contend that the collapse of Russia is a greater threat than its existence. As Russia leadership has a numerous times, "Why should the world exist without Russia?" There have been times in recent history where our relationship with Russia has been cooperative and mutually beneficial. Can anyone figure out the common thread during times where the relationship has soured?

This is an immensely complicated issue, and I'm trying to weigh as many factors and variables as I can comprehend. I love my country, and I love my life in it. After trying to consume and process as much information as I can, attempt to eliminate my biases, it seems apparent to me that the biggest threats to me, my family, and my community are coming from within, not without. I can appreciate that my worldview may not be 100% correct and I've said before that I'm willing to abandon it if presented with a better one.

That's why my intent here is to be somewhat disagreeable and challenging. If I were pawnman, I'd instantly submerse myself in whatever the official narrative is for the "current thing", be it COVID, Ukraine, Israel, etc., and regurgitate it without a single original or critical thought while trying to high five everybody in the room for being one of the bros. Nobody likes that.

 

 

[disgruntledemployee]

7 minutes ago, gearhog said:

True, I typed that partially in jest, but partially to make the point that we are contributing a portion of your and my productive value to a conflict over land that has little intrinsic value. So if we're not protecting the land,  what is it we are receiving in return for our investment in this conflict?

 "We're taking out a global superpower." Why is anyone calling Russia a superpower? Primacy of learning. We were taught as kids that they were the big baddies 40 years ago and forgot to check and see if they still met the criteria. Look at the infographic I posted above. They're number 10 or 11 in the world economy. It is because they have nukes? They're one of maybe 10. They're no more a superpower than Brazil or Italy. What is the only thing Russia has going for it? Energy. Something that is finite in supply and the rest of the world, especially the West, has a growing appetite for. The real lesson here is "Don't fuck with the petro-dollar." Soverignty, Freedom, Anti-Authoritism, is all made up BS to garner public support. Those things exist en masse in countless places around the globe. Somehow it only matters when energy and wealth are involved.

"It's a bargain". I have sister-in-law that that likes to shop. They're in a $350K house, up to their assholes in debt, and she's bringing home some bullshit knick-knack doo-dads because they were a good deal at 50% off. Well, he, an engineer, recently got a pink slip because the DoD decided they really didn't robot fuel trucks as bad as weapons for Ukraine and now I'm supposed to bail them out by buying their things they shouldn't have charged to the credit card in the first place. Sorry, that's your debt, not mine. Who is buying our debt? China currently owns about a trillion dollars worth of US treasuries. In a conflict, they would use that to wreck our economy. By indebting ourselves to fight one foe, we're exposing ourselves to another.

"They're a threat to Europe and the West." I've asked this before. If all it took was a throwing a bargain sum of money at the problem to stop Russia a few miles into Ukraine, how were they ever a threat to anyone that really matters? What's the score card on former Soviet republics joining NATO vs. joining Russia. After decades watching them being absorbed into the other team, Russia finally decides to take a stand over the shittiest and most corrupt one of the bunch. I'd say have at it. Let UKR be the anchor around their neck for next few decades, because that's exactly what they're gonna be for us. Sort of like Greece for the European Union.

120,000 of 143,000,000 is eight one-hundredths of one percent. If 15% of the DoD budget is an insignificant number, what is .08% of Russian population? I do agree with you, however. Overall, Russia is facing a demographic problem and has been since long before this war. The war isn't moving the needle. But if they are facing a demographic collapse, wouldn't that further substantiate my position that they were/are not a viable threat?

I contend that the collapse of Russia is a greater threat than its existence. As Russia leadership has a numerous times, "Why should the world exist without Russia?" There have been times in recent history where our relationship with Russia has been cooperative and mutually beneficial. Can anyone figure out the common thread during times where the relationship has soured?

This is an immensely complicated issue, and I'm trying to weigh as many factors and variables as I can comprehend. I love my country, and I love my life in it. After trying to consume and process as much information as I can, attempt to eliminate my biases, it seems apparent to me that the biggest threats to me, my family, and my community are coming from within, not without. I can appreciate that my worldview may not be 100% correct and I've said before that I'm willing to abandon it if presented with a better one.

That's why my intent here is to be somewhat disagreeable and challenging. If I were pawnman, I'd instantly submerse myself in whatever the official narrative is for the "current thing", be it COVID, Ukraine, Israel, etc., and regurgitate it without a single original or critical thought while trying to high five everybody in the room for being one of the bros. Nobody likes that.

 

 

I'm with CH on this one.  0.08% of their total population isn't the big deal, 120K/total size of military forces is the big deal.  Vietnam is a decent analogy.  Geopolitically, when Putin is replaced, Russia might change their game for the better, haven been sickened by a stupid war by a super stupid man.

As for the superpower point, it's still fair to say they still have enough nukes to cut the earth in half.

As for the Chiner thing, if it comes to blows, maybe that debt they hold becomes worthless, that is, canceled. 

Party on

[gearhog]

33 minutes ago, disgruntledemployee said:

I'm with CH on this one.  0.08% of their total population isn't the big deal, 120K/total size of military forces is the big deal.  Vietnam is a decent analogy.  Geopolitically, when Putin is replaced, Russia might change their game for the better, haven been sickened by a stupid war by a super stupid man.

As for the superpower point, it's still fair to say they still have enough nukes to cut the earth in half.

As for the Chiner thing, if it comes to blows, maybe that debt they hold becomes worthless, that is, canceled. 

Party on

I think we, in the West, have an altogether different understanding of war and death. I encourage you to watch the entire thing if you haven't already seen it, but the 5:00 mark makes my point. We have a very long way to go if we think we're going to attrit the Russians into submission.

 

[ViperMan]

1 hour ago, disgruntledemployee said:

As for the Chiner thing, if it comes to blows, maybe that debt they hold becomes worthless, that is, canceled.

Boom. Roasted. Stroke of a pen.

Edited October 18, 2023 by ViperMan

[Biff_T]

30 minutes ago, gearhog said:

I think we, in the West, have an altogether different understanding of war and death. I encourage you to watch the entire thing if you haven't already seen it, but the 5:00 mark makes my point. We have a very long way to go if we think we're going to attrit the Russians into submission.

 

Russians dont care about dead Russians.  There are some interesting German diaries on youtube from officers involved in Stalingrad.  Pretty gnarly. 

 

[ClearedHot]

14 hours ago, gearhog said:

"We're taking out a global superpower." Why is anyone calling Russia a superpower? Primacy of learning. We were taught as kids that they were the big baddies 40 years ago and forgot to check and see if they still met the criteria. Look at the infographic I posted above. They're number 10 or 11 in the world economy. It is because they have nukes? They're one of maybe 10. They're no more a superpower than Brazil or Italy. What is the only thing Russia has going for it? Energy. Something that is finite in supply and the rest of the world, especially the West, has a growing appetite for. The real lesson here is "Don't fuck with the petro-dollar." Soverignty, Freedom, Anti-Authoritism, is all made up BS to garner public support. Those things exist en masse in countless places around the globe. Somehow it only matters when energy and wealth are involved.

They have nukes and ambition unlike Brazil and Italy.  Also, we are now fighting our FIFTH proxy war with Russia.  Whether or not they meet your definition of a Superpower they have been a pacing threat for almost 70 years and have aggressively threatened our interests around the world.

14 hours ago, gearhog said:

"It's a bargain". I have sister-in-law that that likes to shop. They're in a $350K house, up to their assholes in debt, and she's bringing home some bullshit knick-knack doo-dads because they were a good deal at 50% off. Well, he, an engineer, recently got a pink slip because the DoD decided they really didn't robot fuel trucks as bad as weapons for Ukraine and now I'm supposed to bail them out by buying their things they shouldn't have charged to the credit card in the first place. Sorry, that's your debt, not mine. Who is buying our debt? China currently owns about a trillion dollars worth of US treasuries. In a conflict, they would use that to wreck our economy. By indebting ourselves to fight one foe, we're exposing ourselves to another.

Our debt is obviously a huge issue, that being said thus far we have given Ukraine $113B, which represents 22.5 days of deficit debt accumulation at our current rate...yes, that is a HUGE bargain.

14 hours ago, gearhog said:

120,000 of 143,000,000 is eight one-hundredths of one percent. If 15% of the DoD budget is an insignificant number, what is .08% of Russian population? I do agree with you, however. Overall, Russia is facing a demographic problem and has been since long before this war. The war isn't moving the needle. But if they are facing a demographic collapse, wouldn't that further substantiate my position that they were/are not a viable threat?

Data should ALWAYS be be viewed in context.  When you look at your math it seems like no big deal, I can assure you it is a HUGE deal.  Look at the graphic below, it is not about the impact total population, it is about impact to males in younger age groups, especially in a population with an aging problem like Russia.  While it may only be .08 of the total population, these deaths have touched every town and village in Russia.  Keep in mind, the number of wounded is double further impacting the working population of males in Russia that will support the growing bubble at the top.  Russia conscripts between the ages of 18 and 27, that group of males has a population of 3.9M, the impact of killed and wounded cuts that seven year group of men by over 12%...that my friend is a HUGE deal. And again, the birth rate behind these year groups is decreasing.  They are seriously F'd and yes that offers challenges but it does reduce the likelihood that they try to invade another neighbor.

14 hours ago, gearhog said:

This is an immensely complicated issue

Amen brother.

14 hours ago, gearhog said:

I love my country, and I love my life in it.

I think 99% of the folks on this forum feel the same.  Regardless of political affiliation or social belief everyone is part of the 1% that stepped forward to "Support and Defend the Constitution of the United States."   I am thankful for each and every one of you REGARDLESS of what side of the aisle your beliefs reside.

14 hours ago, gearhog said:

After trying to consume and process as much information as I can, attempt to eliminate my biases, it seems apparent to me that the biggest threats to me, my family, and my community are coming from within, not without. I can appreciate that my worldview may not be 100% correct and I've said before that I'm willing to abandon it if presented with a better one.

I think we face threats both outside and inside.  I am certainly not the expert on Russia but I have had a particular interest in them since I wrote a paper on them in War College that ultimately led to me to traveling there on exchange.  This war has and will change their society.

[StoleIt]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

For all you savvy investors out there, your one take away should be: impending fire sale on RussianBrides.com

[Lord Ratner]

7 hours ago, ecugringo said:

Arent Ukrainian Males in forced conscription?  So yeah they kinda are forced to fight.

The war goes back to 2014 with the Maiden uprising.  Losing the pro Russia govt is what pushed Putin. The question is how involved was the US in those uprisings?  State Dept was there.  Not saying this is just cause for Putin but an expansion eastward of Western influence put him in a defensive position.

A question to ask is if/when western support dries up in Ukraine and Russia eventually wins...will that loss of life be worth it for Ukraine?  Did we just help delay the inevitable and cause more death and destruction for a goal of making Putin's military weaker.

I dont think Putin is stupid.  I think a lot of things going on now are all related.

I said multiple times, forced by the US. I do not care if Ukraine forces their men to fight. We have a draft as well. 

 

He wasn't in a "defensive position" because no one was going to attack Russia. Are we in a "defensive position" when Mexico elects an anti-US president? No. We aren't.

 

It is Ukraine's job to decide what is worth fighting. It is our job to decide what is worth supporting. Mixing the two makes a false argument.