Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[Prozac]

8 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Are you going to hold that line when people say we cant afford social healthcare and higher social safety nets?

Yep. Wish we did better in that regard, and I’ll continue to work & vote to that end, but you won’t see me emigrating to Sweden anytime soon.

Lots of absolutists on the internet these days. If you’re liberal, the Republicans are leading us into oblivion & if you’re conservative, the Dems are marching us straight into hell. Time to give it a rest. Stop letting our own visions of perfect blind us from seeing what a good thing we have. That’s how we lose it. 

[dream big]

19 hours ago, nsplayr said:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/
 

We’ve provided the vast majority of direct mil aid, the EU has provided more financial aid. Individual EU/NATO countries have made additional contributions.

All well worth it, I’m perfectly happy let the Russian armed forces crash against the hard rocks of Ukraine for as long as those idiots want to do so!

We absolutely should help Ukraine along with assure NATO and defend the Eastern Flank. Perhaps many are questioning the notion of sending blank checks to Ukraine (with no audit mechanism) indefinitely without a larger overarching strategy? 

[FLEA]

27 minutes ago, dream big said:

We absolutely should help Ukraine along with assure NATO and defend the Eastern Flank. Perhaps many are questioning the notion of sending blank checks to Ukraine (with no audit mechanism) indefinitely without a larger overarching strategy? 

Bingo.

[FLEA]

58 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Yep. Wish we did better in that regard, and I’ll continue to work & vote to that end, but you won’t see me emigrating to Sweden anytime soon.

Lots of absolutists on the internet these days. If you’re liberal, the Republicans are leading us into oblivion & if you’re conservative, the Dems are marching us straight into hell. Time to give it a rest. Stop letting our own visions of perfect blind us from seeing what a good thing we have. That’s how we lose it. 

I agree with you 100% here but there has to be priorities. Is our priorities to secure the financial freedom of our citizens and provide economic liberty or is it to help Ukraine win their war and help Europeans enjoy a better lifestyle then our own citizens? 

[Clark Griswold]

Interested in guesses from this audience…
War in Ukraine, how much longer do you think it will go before an armistice or a negotiation to a permanent settlement?

My opinion it will last most of next year, past the summer. Russia is garnering forces, buying weapons, learning/adapting some. NOT a statement of support but my assessment.
Ukraine is also, the war and likely final line of control will remain east of the Dneiper River.


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[uhhello]

14 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

Interested in guesses from this audience…
War in Ukraine, how much longer do you think it will go before an armistice or a negotiation to a permanent settlement?

My opinion it will last most of next year, past the summer. Russia is garnering forces, buying weapons, learning/adapting some. NOT a statement of support but my assessment.
Ukraine is also, the war and likely final line of control will remain east of the Dneiper River.


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I think it will be shorter than your projection.  

What additional forces can they garner and utilize in anything other than the current frontal assaults being conducted?  Lots of open source reporting of shell shortages and talk of the shells they are getting (with 2022 manufacture dates) as being complete garbage. 

Time is not in their favor on buying weapons.

They don't appear to have adapted in the slightest.  Those who are still around don't appear to have made any progress changing their tactics from the initial invasion and gradual loss of territory on their retreat east.  

Also, whats going on with Putin?  Lots of videos and pictures supporting some type of illness or the results of an illness.   Does the war end if he falls out a window or just dies?  

Ukraine has to make it through the winter civilian populace wise but I don't see anything major happening on that front.

What does the Ukraine force strength look like though?  I have no idea.  I think their support from us and EU countries will only grow due to UKR seeming to be on the right path.  

I'm basing all of this off of open source intel and guesses.  Could be way off but who knows.  

Edited January 2, 2023 by uhhello

[Biff_T]

3 hours ago, Prozac said:

... enjoy the show while you’re here. 

When people figure out how to do this, they usually have a better life.  We think we're so important.  A lot of people forget that we are all going to die.  In the end, none of this bullshit matters.  We're on a spinning rock, floating through an expanding universe, which at this moment, I'm not thoroughly convinced that anybody knows how the universe got here in the first place.  

Drink a cold Busch Light and relax.  Life is short.  You never know when you might hit the dirt upside down.  

 

[McJay Pilot]

Reportedly about 600 Russians met Señor HIMARS just after midnight, during a Putin speech. That probably would tip the scales here, but I doubt it moves the needle much in Russia.

 

[Majestik Møøse]

When the Russians started buying back munitions from former customers because they have none left of their own, that was the end of their ability to win a war.

[Clark Griswold]

13 hours ago, uhhello said:

I think it will be shorter than your projection.  

What additional forces can they garner and utilize in anything other than the current frontal assaults being conducted?  Lots of open source reporting of shell shortages and talk of the shells they are getting (with 2022 manufacture dates) as being complete garbage. 

Time is not in their favor on buying weapons.

They don't appear to have adapted in the slightest.  Those who are still around don't appear to have made any progress changing their tactics from the initial invasion and gradual loss of territory on their retreat east.  

Also, whats going on with Putin?  Lots of videos and pictures supporting some type of illness or the results of an illness.   Does the war end if he falls out a window or just dies?  

Ukraine has to make it through the winter civilian populace wise but I don't see anything major happening on that front.

What does the Ukraine force strength look like though?  I have no idea.  I think their support from us and EU countries will only grow due to UKR seeming to be on the right path.  

I'm basing all of this off of open source intel and guesses.  Could be way off but who knows.  

I hope you're right and I'm wrong.  

I'm pessimistic about the war as I think they (Russians) have enough mobliks now and ammo to launch another offensive, really just to try to get Ukraine to negotiate and accept territorial concessions.

Russia Seen as Preparing for Massive Winter Offensive in Ukraine, Including New Run on Kyiv | World Report | U.S. News (usnews.com)

 

Another decent read on the Ukr / Rus war:

Putin's War in Ukraine Is Brutal (It Looks Like the Crimean War) - 19FortyFive

 

[Lawman]

When the Russians started buying back munitions from former customers because they have none left of their own, that was the end of their ability to win a war.

They aren’t running out of shells or more importantly tubes for their artillery.

Our sanctions haven’t impacted their ability to manufacture those items. Complex munitions like PGM and Kaliber yes… 152mm boom and 220mm rockets not so much.

They bought stuff back to make the gap between realizing this wouldn’t be a short fight and getting their industry spun up to make up the difference.


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[FLEA]

They wasted 8 years in Afghanistan so I would say prolonged conflict isn't new to them. I can see the brass heads now telling the press that "victory is only a few months away" and "they will welcome us as liberators" while the greedy military industrial complexes start eyeballing profits for the next decade. 

This is probably a good thing for us, bad thing for Ukraine. This will likely have the same effect Afghanistan did in the 80's and completely cripple their global power/influence removing their great power status and forcing them to concede to western demands. It will likely also instill distrust in Putin's competence but only after several years of false messaging and failed goals. This could lead to an internal leadership ouster with a more pro-western strongman. 

[uhhello]

Pretty incredible that UKR apparently hasn't lost a single HIMARS yet.  Looks like they hit another target the other night with anywhere from 100-500 KIA and another big weapons stockpile.  

[Lord Ratner]

I have a hard time believing Russia can do better in the winter than they have in the warm months. 

 

It appears the Ukrainians will fight for as long as we fund them, and we will fund them for as long as it keeps weakening Russia.

[McJay Pilot]

13 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

I have a hard time believing Russia can do better in the winter than they have in the warm months. 

Based on their shit logistics, I think we’ll see General Winter on the side of the Ukrainians this year.

Coming soon, the legendary “meat popsicles” of The 5th Element!

[Clark Griswold]

On a new Russian offensive, British analysis:

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[FourFans]

How does the current "anti-russia" impact the the environment in Europe right now?

A thought: this guy offers a LOT of useful information.

Caveat: YGTBSM crowd: yes, I am addressing your kindred.  Your offspring WILL NOT look like you.  Yet they will do your job better.  They WILL hang it out, in a way you don't understand.  Trust them.

...sadly, the guys who Know..probably, are too understand, unless young officers make them understand..;.

 

OOOOORRRRRRR I'm completely wrong and this dude just broke a LOT of rules:  

 

 

[Guest nsplayr]

2 hours ago, FourFans130 said:

A thought: this guy offers a LOT of useful information.

Caveat: YGTBSM crowd: yes, I am addressing your kindred.  Your offspring WILL NOT look like you.  Yet they will do your job better.  They WILL hang it out, in a way you don't understand.  Trust them.

...sadly, the guys who Know..probably, are too understand, unless young officers make them understand..;.

 

OOOOORRRRRRR I'm completely wrong and this dude just broke a LOT of rules:

I can't understand WTF you're talking about here after all that whiskey, and a 45+ minute youtube video of two unknown dudes talking is below my line.

Do you have a TL;DR once you're sober? Cheers!

[uhhello]

34 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

I can't understand WTF you're talking about here after all that whiskey, and a 45+ minute youtube video of two unknown dudes talking is below my line.

Do you have a TL;DR once you're sober? Cheers!

Very early days (first couple weeks) Russian AF strikes and caps very uncoordinated but had giant numbers/tech advantage.  UKR air defenses were entirely suppressed on teh ground and were forced to continually maneuver forcing UKR fighters to fly in extremely low to get under RUS fighters.  Rest of it explained how much of a shit show the RUS military plan or lack of plan was.  No comms and couldn't spell joint.  

basically this white paper

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/russian-air-war-and-ukrainian-requirements-air-defence

Edited January 8, 2023 by uhhello

[JimNtexas]

Someone please explain to me how it could possibly be in the best interest of the United States to not give Ukraine really significant military assistance.

They are killing Russians and blowing up their stuff.  Russia is one of our two near-peer adversaries.  The one that is run by a crazy man.

What’s the point of being in NATO if just fold our arms and say ‘not our problem, we need the money for dish washer rebates and drag queen shows’.    Yes, I know that Ukraine isn’t a member, but all their neighbors are.  What will we do if we see Putin dancing down main  street Kyiv while the FSB is going door to door kidnapping kids and sending Mom and Dad to Siberia?

 

And why are Republicans suddenly whining about defense spending?   Are we now in bizzaro world?

[FourFans]

9 hours ago, nsplayr said:

I can't understand WTF you're talking about here after all that whiskey, and a 45+ minute youtube video of two unknown dudes talking is below my line.

Do you have a TL;DR once you're sober? Cheers!

Yeah, definitely whiskey involved.

TLDR: SEAD/DEAD in the future is going to look a lot different than it did in the past.

[pawnman]

9 hours ago, JimNtexas said:

Someone please explain to me how it could possibly be in the best interest of the United States to not give Ukraine really significant military assistance.

They are killing Russians and blowing up their stuff.  Russia is one of our two near-peer adversaries.  The one that is run by a crazy man.

What’s the point of being in NATO if just fold our arms and say ‘not our problem, we need the money for dish washer rebates and drag queen shows’.    Yes, I know that Ukraine isn’t a member, but all their neighbors are.  What will we do if we see Putin dancing down main  street Kyiv while the FSB is going door to door kidnapping kids and sending Mom and Dad to Siberia?

 

And why are Republicans suddenly whining about defense spending?   Are we now in bizzaro world?

100%.  No matter how much we've given Ukraine, it's a fraction of our annual DoD budget.  We are witnessing the wholesale destruction of a near-peer's military capability with zero US lives spent.  It would be a bargain at twice the price.

Edited January 8, 2023 by pawnman

[FLEA]

1 hour ago, pawnman said:

100%.  No matter how much we've given Ukraine, it's a fraction of our annual DoD budget.  We are witnessing the wholesale destruction of a near-peer's military capability with zero US lives spent.  It would be a bargain at twice the price.

In light of that would it be better to reduce the DoD budget by half, fire half our force, and invest in efforts like this more so than maintaining the large standing force we conventionally use? Instead of participating in NATO at all why don't we withdrawal all troops from Europe and offer NATO say, $50B/year in subsidy, but 0 manpower or materiel unless it's through FMS or technology sales. 

Edited January 8, 2023 by FLEA

[GrndPndr]

1 hour ago, FLEA said:

In light of that would it be better to reduce the DoD budget by half, fire half our force, and invest in efforts like this more so than maintaining the large standing force we conventionally use? Instead of participating in NATO at all why don't we withdrawal all troops from Europe and offer NATO say, $50B/year in subsidy, but 0 manpower or materiel unless it's through FMS or technology sales. 

It seems as though your sarcasm has escaped (me).

[FLEA]

2 hours ago, GrndPndr said:

It seems as though your sarcasm has escaped (me).

Wasn't sarcasm. A serious COA. Is it possible some of these border states know the best means of investment for their defense better than we do? Is it possible they could spend that money more effectively and wisely than we could? We gave Ukraine $21B and they have literally crumbled what we thought was our second largest conventional competitor. 

We are geographically the most secure country on the planet but have the largest standing army in history. We also have guaranteed our security through a massive nuclear enterprise. The vast majority of our forces are engaged to security commitments abroad. We can't reduce forces due to those commitments. We spend ~$700B on defense annually but ~$350B is actually spend on personnel cost, benefits, entitlements, salary, wages and insurance. People are the costliest asset in the DoD. We don't need 2 million people though to defend the US borders. We need that because of foreign commitments. And a smaller force would generally be overall healthier for our economy. Imagine reinvesting ~$350B annually back into the US economy, or approximately $1000/person, $4000/family. The average household income in the US is $70K/yr. That's a nearly 5% raise to buying power across the US population. 

It also puts the onus back on most of these other countries that they need to take more responsibility for their own security. I don't think it should be the job of US forces to hold the expectation to absorb the majority of casualties in foreign conflicts designed to protect other countries. I think back to McArthur's support for the South Koreans when he said we weren't there to fight the war for them, but to be their spine, knowing that the US was backing them was a major boost to confidence and morale that allowed them to be successful. Working in South Korea its very clear they feel responsible for their own defense. Working in Europe, its exactly the opposite. They largely believe it is the US's job to pick up the burden of defense and they will assist in support roles later in the conflict. (With the exception of France and the UK, who are pretty reliable and self sufficient.)