nice AI copy and paste.

the actual license is here: https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/935376/download?inline

of note, it allows the US to import Iranian oil (😂)

and China is not restricted from purchasing per the license

2 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

The U.S. restricts Iranian oil sales primarily through heavy financial and shipping sanctions, targeting foreign banks, shipping companies, and refiners that buy from Iran to cripple its economy. These measures, often utilizing secondary sanctions, essentially cut Iran off from the global financial system and tanker services, though occasional temporary waivers (like the 2026 30-day waivers for stranded oil) are used for global price stabilization.

1. Secondary Sanctions: The U.S. threatens to penalize third-party countries and companies—notably in China—that purchase Iranian oil or petroleum products.

2. Banking Restrictions: Sanctions prevent Iran from accessing international financial systems, making it difficult to process payments for oil sales, often forcing the use of illicit networks.

3. Shipping & Tanker Bans: The U.S. targets the national tanker company of Iran (NITC) and forces shipping insurance providers (like the International Group of P&I Clubs) to deny coverage for vessels carrying Iranian oil.

4. Maximum Pressure Campaign: Sanctions target Iran's petrochemical and energy sectors directly, focusing on closing off all avenues for revenue.

So Iran is giving away their oil out of the kindness of their hearts.

UAL expects oil to hit $175 per barrel.

Fortune

United Airlines plans for oil hitting $175 a barrel and s...

CEO Scott Kirby pointed out jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the last three weeks, representing an additional $11 billion in annual costs if prices stay at that level.

8 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

UAL expects oil to hit $175 per barrel.

Fortune

United Airlines plans for oil hitting $175 a barrel and s...

CEO Scott Kirby pointed out jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the last three weeks, representing an additional $11 billion in annual costs if prices stay at that level.

Can confirm UA is pricing accordingly.

Anyone here cheerleading Trump/Pete in their anti-maga war efforts? I mean, you voted for this, right? Iran was soooooo close, right? Airmen dying is noble, right? Isreal is worth US blood, right?

15 minutes ago, disgruntledemployee said:

Can confirm UA is pricing accordingly.

Anyone here cheerleading Trump/Pete in their anti-maga war efforts? I mean, you voted for this, right? Iran was soooooo close, right? Airmen dying is noble, right? Isreal is worth US blood, right?

Some of us believe that expensive gas and unstable markets are worth it to move the pieces on the board for the inevitable war with China.

Apparently some of the Trump admin, including Trump himself, agrees.

I'll judge the effort once it's done, or at least a few months in, but if it works, then yeah, easily worth it.

Seriously though, noble deaths? Who's the child now? We all signed up to die for causes that were too big for us to understand as 18 years olds. Now you should know better.

Edited Monday at 02:17 AM2 days by Lord Ratner

Oil pissing contest aside, Iran has brought death, destruction, and/or destabilization to most of the world for many decades. They are, and have been, wildly dangerous for a long time. It’s a failure that nothing with teeth behind it had been done about it decades ago. So while execution is never perfect, and there are valid critiques, it’s asinine to act like the status quo (or similar version) was doing just fine.

War is ugly and unwanted, but it will continue to be necessary and unavoidable for the rest of human existence on this planet.

Edited Monday at 04:52 AM2 days by brabus

11 hours ago, Polar Bear said:

So Iran is giving away their oil out of the kindness of their hearts.

Huh?

140Million barrels of Iranian oil are stranded at sea. the sanctions are to bring that oil to market.

11 hours ago, Polar Bear said:

So Iran is giving away their oil out of the kindness of their hearts.

Huh?

140Million barrels of Iranian oil are stranded at sea. the sanctions are to bring that oil to market.

8 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

Some of us believe that expensive gas and unstable markets are worth it to move the pieces on the board for the inevitable war with China.

Apparently some of the Trump admin, including Trump himself, agrees.

I'll judge the effort once it's done, or at least a few months in, but if it works, then yeah, easily worth it.

Seriously though, noble deaths? Who's the child now? We all signed up to die for causes that were too big for us to understand as 18 years olds. Now you should know better.

It is useless to engage the trolls, there is no discussion because they are single minded in their hate. Most of us have repeatedly said we don't like many things trump but he has done good things...no one is perfect, most certainly not our politicians. I saw what was in my opinion both good and bad with Biden/Obama/Bush/Clinton and was intellectually honest to admit those things. As most on this forum are in or were in the profession of arms it is stunning to find zero value in degrading and hopefully removing the single biggest purveyor of death and instability in the Middle East. The number of American lives lost or changed forever thanks to Iran should never be forgotten. If there is some short-term pain at the pump/economy to perhaps stabilize the Middle East and remove the biggest exporters of terror in the world, then I most certainly approve. Time will tell but at this point trying something different appears to be better than doing the same old thing like flying $1.6 billion in cash to Iran.

There is a much bigger picture going on here and all actions point to neutering and cornering China in the long run. Russia is depleting its military on its own, Venezuela got the message, Cuba can’t turn their lights on and the Iranian regime will collapse. It’s fascinating watching nearly the entire Middle East come down on Iran. It wasn’t long ago when Iran held the cards via their proxies. The Middle East isn’t what it once was. Those of us that have been vacationing on the Air Force’s dime in the ME for a couple decades have seen the transformation. The most modern cities in the world are now in the Middle East.

This war with Iran has been extremely uncomfortable to watch unfold. Servicemen and women have given their lives. The markets are getting crushed - although today looks promising. But, I’m ok with it understanding the bigger picture. This administration is tackling long lingering complex problems. It’s needed to be done for a very long time.

Edited Monday at 05:17 PM1 day by lloyd christmas

I guess the Left would rather the Iranians progress to the point of North Korea, who are untouchable at this point. Too much artillery aimed at Seoul, nukes, and ICBMs. Only Iran has been even more aggressive at stirring up trouble and exporting violence abroad. God help us if they get nukes and ICBMs.

Probably

Regime alter Venezuela, regime change Cuba, keep pressure on Mexican cartels, keep Russia from taking more of Ukraine, make amends with Canada & Europe, build an asymmetric thread to hold at risk a cross Taiwan strait invasion from multiple axes… secure the greater peace with strategic blocking moves.

44 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

Probably

Regime alter Venezuela, regime change Cuba, keep pressure on Mexican cartels, keep Russia from taking more of Ukraine, make amends with Canada & Europe, build an asymmetric thread to hold at risk a cross Taiwan strait invasion from multiple axes… secure the greater peace with strategic blocking moves.

There are defiantly positive second and third order effects from the Venezuela and Iran efforts.

Interestingly the DNI 2026 report was just released and they have shifted to say they no longer think China will jump for Taiwan in 2027. If you follow this AOR you will know there are BIG factors (economic/population), that were pointing at 2027. I have only skimmed it so far but a huge change in the assessment. As an aside, INDOPACOM hosted the POST conference in Hawaii two weeks ago and their assessment does NOT align with DNI.

DNI 2026 Report.pdf

Giving them 1.7 billion 10 years ago might have been a mistake.

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/u-s-deploy-82nd-airborne-iran-middle-east/

mmm yes it’s all going according to plan.

-we’re actively in talks with Iran according to trump

-but also we attacked them the last two times we were in talks

-and also Iran says we aren’t in talks

-and now potential movement toward boots on the ground

-but it’s probably just to secure Kharg island which is like.. not really boots on the ground..

Goalpost shift in 3.. 2.. 1..

6 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

There are defiantly positive second and third order effects from the Venezuela and Iran efforts.

Interestingly the DNI 2026 report was just released and they have shifted to say they no longer think China will jump for Taiwan in 2027. If you follow this AOR you will know there are BIG factors (economic/population), that were pointing at 2027. I have only skimmed it so far but a huge change in the assessment. As an aside, INDOPACOM hosted the POST conference in Hawaii two weeks ago and their assessment does NOT align with DNI.

DNI 2026 Report.pdf

Phew thank goodness the 2026 DNI report says China isn’t gonna move on Taiwan now because of our big dick moves in South America and the Middle East. I’ve always considered the DNI report to be the gold standard analysis. Wonder what the 2025 report said about Iran.. checks notes..

“WMD

We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003, though pressure has probably built on him to do so.“

2025 DNI report pg. 26

https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf

well shit.

I guess the main thing to know about DNI reports is that you should ignore them if they don’t justify another forever war in the Middle East

Gabbard recently (18 Mar) said: "It is not the intelligence community's responsibility to determine what is and is not an imminent threat."

Edited 12 hours ago12 hr by Day Man

7 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

There are defiantly positive second and third order effects from the Venezuela and Iran efforts.

Interestingly the DNI 2026 report was just released and they have shifted to say they no longer think China will jump for Taiwan in 2027. If you follow this AOR you will know there are BIG factors (economic/population), that were pointing at 2027. I have only skimmed it so far but a huge change in the assessment. As an aside, INDOPACOM hosted the POST conference in Hawaii two weeks ago and their assessment does NOT align with DNI.

DNI 2026 Report.pdf

Will look at that

Good discussion on School of War on Iran

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/school-of-war/id1589160645?i=1000756399444

I’m not a neo con, I’m not looking for dragons to slay but if we want to prevent the three authoritarian systems of the east with capabilities, resources, position and intent on reshaping our flawed but acceptable current world order into something we will not like, we have to act.

1 hour ago, Clark Griswold said:

I’m not a neo con

12 minutes ago, Negat0ry said:

I get it, I would say I’m not a neo con but a realist. Neo con or Neo libs are trying to make the world a better place, to make said regimes like us, I harbor no illusions about that.

I just wanna keep them from running the place.

4 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

Will look at that

Good discussion on School of War on Iran

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/school-of-war/id1589160645?i=1000756399444

I’m not a neo con, I’m not looking for dragons to slay but if we want to prevent the three authoritarian systems of the east with capabilities, resources, position and intent on reshaping our flawed but acceptable current world order into something we will not like, we have to act.

Yeah if there’s one thing sure to improve our positioning in the world it’s getting sucked into another middle eastern boondoggle 🙄

Russia and China are absolutely salivating over this. Why do you think they haven’t stepped in to broker some kind of ceasefire? Because you don’t interrupt your enemy when they’re in the middle of curb stomping their own dick.

1 hour ago, Pooter said:

Yeah if there’s one thing sure to improve our positioning in the world it’s getting sucked into another middle eastern boondoggle 🙄

Russia and China are absolutely salivating over this. Why do you think they haven’t stepped in to broker some kind of ceasefire? Because you don’t interrupt your enemy when they’re in the middle of curb stomping their own dick.

I don’t think we are getting sucked in as much as we didn’t have a choice.

Iran having nuclear weapons is not acceptable in any scenario, it is different than NK, Pakistan or Turkey developing nukes. Not only would they still hold at risk the Strait of Hormuz, they would still command some of the largest oil reserves and now a military capability that effectively holds at bay or at risk the world.

They would have the means to if not push us out of the ME effectively, severely limit our options, if they developed a nuclear weapons capability.

They are completely capable of nuclear terror, feigning innocence or ignorance if a weapon was used. It is completely conceivable they would strike us, Israel or Europe first with a nuclear weapon in an unattributable manner.

Russia and China may be enjoying seeing the USA get into a fight with Iran and I wouldn’t intervene if I were them but we are not them. We occupy a totally different role in this drama, they can and will do things that we won’t because they, the mafia regime running Russia or the cult of personality running China, are the bad guys for lack of a better term. These are countries that might poison you with radioactive materials if the leader doesn’t like you or assign you to be worked to death and steal your organs if they want to.

We are not perfect and neither are our leaders but by any measure we are more good than bad.

I don’t like the fact that we secure a world that a lot of preening, hypocritical assholes free ride on and enjoy the benefits of while not doing shit but it is preferable to a world where China controls micro chips, Iran controls or threatens half of the worlds oil supply and Russia has retaken Eastern Europe.

They will use that leverage to push us out, choke our economy and weaken us in ways we are not really widely thinking of. Chinese diplomats in unguarded moments have told American diplomats they wish to deindustrialize the USA, to turn us into an agrarian nation that supplies China and is essentially a vassal to it. Fuck that.

Iran is part of the strategy to defeat that, not only for us but the free world and allies, as fair weather friends as some of them might be.

We all have bitter memories of the GWOT, other long term missions or actions taken in the ME, we can legitimately be wary but we must be open that force is required yet again. The Korean War happened only 5 years after WW2, I’m sure the public was not happy with another war after fighting in the most destructive conflict ever but history waits for no one and reality is utterly remorseless, either we fight our enemies or we let them take what they want of the world.

Edited 5 hours ago5 hr by Clark Griswold

5 hours ago, Pooter said:

Russia and China are absolutely salivating over this.

No. They really aren't. They're happy to see us step on our crank, but they're also very not happy to see how lethal our forces can be when partially unleashed. Russia in particular is very unhappy with the results of their own air and EW defenses. China, well, best indications are that China's leadership doesn't actually comprehend what our absolute and lightning fast decimation of Iran's defenses really means for their Taiwan plans. I'm willing to bet the rank-and-file PLA get's it, but the one-man command structure probably doesn't.

Is the US stepping in it right now? Yup.
Is it really hurting our strategic capabilities? Not unless we commit conventional ground troops.

Edited 2 hours ago2 hr by FourFans