The Next President is...

[FourFans]

Regardless of rhetoric, does anyone think Kamala would actually certify a Trump victory, or would she find some way to get out of it? 

[cragspider]

1 hour ago, FourFans said:

Regardless of rhetoric, does anyone think Kamala would actually certify a Trump victory, or would she find some way to get out of it? 

Ol Brandon did back in 17. If she doesn’t then she is again derelict in her Constitutional duties. I do think they Dems will find a way to object to the certification again from certain members, mostly the Rep from Md, Raskin. 

[BuddhaSixFour]

Yes. There will be some recounts and legal haggling like there always is, but at the end of the day, yes. 

[tac airlifter]

It’s amazing the information gathering possible with publicly available big data analytics.  I’d love to see something similar for Trump rallies.

[TreeA10]

Same here. I'd like to see the data for Trump's Madison Square Garden rally.

My mother told me that you are the company you keep.  6000+ Antifa/BLM/Pro-Palestinian protestors is not exactly good company.

[M2]

On 10/17/2024 at 8:03 AM, M2 said:

We are fucked.  It's now just a matter of how fucked we want to be!

I still stand by this statement from two weeks ago...

[Lord Ratner]

11 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

It’s amazing the information gathering possible with publicly available big data analytics.  I’d love to see something similar for Trump rallies.

I'm not saying there's not some fuckery going on, but that doesn't really pass the smell test. Why would you have to bus 11,000 people from Georgia? Why would the distribution be tilted that way?

 

I absolutely believe the part where most of the people at these rallies are the same people that go to all the rallies. I'm guessing the percentage of repeat attendees is lower at a trump rally, but still very significant.

[BuddhaSixFour]

5 minutes of internet snooping, and that guy’s Linked In is for a 40-year career in sleeping commercial real estate and some buyout stuff of mom and pop medical practices. So, let’s consider the options…

A) This guy was some sort of CIA asset California doing deep data analysis and he’s spent a ton of money buying what would be very expensive data if it’s even available. Now, he’s coming out of the shadows to share his critical insights about the election. 

B) Some schmuck lawyer is bored and realizes he can make shit up on X and get a ton of attention that the commercial real estate world doesn’t give him. He’s making it up, but probably takes some “ends justify the means” rationale.

C) Someone creating a bot account (or probably hundreds), happens to scrape his photo and name off of Linked In and has been using it to spew garbage that some people are lapping up. 

My money is not on Option A. 

[Desayuno]

14 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

It’s amazing the information gathering possible with publicly available big data analytics.  I’d love to see something similar for Trump rallies.

From his X profile. Sounds like a weirdo.

 

My partners and I have been lifetime data scientists. We own the digital ID of every mobile device/computer in the U.S. and have indexed and archived every IP address in the world. Our extensive experience in big and deep data, including geotracking and geolocation makes our ….yada yada

[arg]

There are vidios all over the net of people being bused into her events. The latest ones are the mass exodus, while K was speaking, when people relized Beyonce wasn't going to do a show. They looked like a herd of goats that found a hole in the fence.

[TreeA10]

Reminds me of the idiots arrested in Georgia protesting the police training facility referred to as "cop city.". Almost all the people arrested were from places far from Atlanta. Who pays for their traveling and lodging expenses?  They obviously don't have a job if they can spend time playing protestor.  The money is coming from somewhere to support the chaos.

[disgruntledemployee]

The microphone is filing sexual assault charges..

 

Edited November 2, 2024 by disgruntledemployee

[Standby]

10 hours ago, disgruntledemployee said:

The microphone is filing sexual assault charges..

 

Grabbed that mic right by the pussy. 

[Inertia17]

19 hours ago, disgruntledemployee said:

The microphone is filing sexual assault charges..

 

Working on his Kamala impression I guess.

[HeloDude]

Well, two days away—what are the predictions?

[gearhog]

5 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

Well, two days away—what are the predictions?

There will be no clear winner.

[lloyd christmas]

1 hour ago, HeloDude said:

Well, two days away—what are the predictions?

Not a prediction just an observation.  I’m not big on social media. I only have a FB account.  I started the account years ago when I taught at the FTU.  It was a tool to keep in touch with my students including my international students. I am also a military brat so I have connected with folks from my childhood who live all around the country in places I lived growing up.  I see their opinions on this election.  I see the questions they ask and the people that respond to their posts. I see an overwhelming push for Trump.  It could mean something or I could be way off base.  Again, not a prediction just an observation.  

I also recognize that the media is the largest part of the machine.  The media arm of the machine wants ratings and money. They have no interest in reporting the truth.  They will frame this election as “tied” to get ratings whether it’s leaning one way or the other.  Gotta have people glued to their feeds/TV.

 

[Smokin]

Problem is that the social media algorithms are programed for engagement.  If you routinely look at or engage with X then you're going to see way more of X and very little Y.  Over half my youtube feed (the only social type media I have an account on) is hunting videos because that's what I click on.

Current polls are interesting.  RCP has Trump winning 287 to 251.  That's assuming he wins 4/7 battleground states with winning AZ, NV, GA, and NC.  If the rest of the map holds, he doesn't even have to win GA. Or if he wins GA and NC then he can win without AZ and NV.  If that happens and Nebraska's Omaha district goes Harris (very possible, then we end up 269-269.  Then the House votes by state (not reps), so Trump wins by a landslide.  If that happens, we'll be subjected to 4 years of the left whining about how unfair that process is and how Trump would somehow not be a legit President while they completely ignore the irony of saying that.

He underpolled in 2016 but was more accurate in 2020.  Apparently early voting has blown away previous records and for some reason early voters lean Democrat, although there are some polls showing that the early votes are more evenly split this year.

[BashiChuni]

i got betting money on kamala at +145 and +170

[Ebony zer]

13 hours ago, Smokin said:

Problem is that the social media algorithms are programed for engagement.  If you routinely look at or engage with X then you're going to see way more of X and very little Y.  Over half my youtube feed (the only social type media I have an account on) is hunting videos because that's what I click on.

Current polls are interesting.  RCP has Trump winning 287 to 251.  That's assuming he wins 4/7 battleground states with winning AZ, NV, GA, and NC.  If the rest of the map holds, he doesn't even have to win GA. Or if he wins GA and NC then he can win without AZ and NV.  If that happens and Nebraska's Omaha district goes Harris (very possible, then we end up 269-269.  Then the House votes by state (not reps), so Trump wins by a landslide.  If that happens, we'll be subjected to 4 years of the left whining about how unfair that process is and how Trump would somehow not be a legit President while they completely ignore the irony of saying that.

He underpolled in 2016 but was more accurate in 2020.  Apparently early voting has blown away previous records and for some reason early voters lean Democrat, although there are some polls showing that the early votes are more evenly split this year.

Smokin,

I'm not sure where you get your data but if Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, along with Omaha 2 she has 270 electoral college votes. Trump almost has to win one of the blue wall states in order to win. 

 

As for polling in 2016 vs 2020, in 2020 the polls were the most inaccurate they've been in the last 40 years. They still projected Biden to win, but the margin of error was significant. 

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2021/07/19/pre-election-polls-in-2020-had-the-largest-errors-in-40-years/

[M2]

P'Nut the Squirrel's death will be Kamala's demise! 




 

[arg]

[disgruntledemployee]

20 hours ago, Smokin said:

Problem is that the social media algorithms are programed for engagement.  If you routinely look at or engage with X then you're going to see way more of X and very little Y.  Over half my youtube feed (the only social type media I have an account on) is hunting videos because that's what I click on.

Current polls are interesting.  RCP has Trump winning 287 to 251.  That's assuming he wins 4/7 battleground states with winning AZ, NV, GA, and NC.  If the rest of the map holds, he doesn't even have to win GA. Or if he wins GA and NC then he can win without AZ and NV.  If that happens and Nebraska's Omaha district goes Harris (very possible, then we end up 269-269.  Then the House votes by state (not reps), so Trump wins by a landslide.  If that happens, we'll be subjected to 4 years of the left whining about how unfair that process is and how Trump would somehow not be a legit President while they completely ignore the irony of saying that.

He underpolled in 2016 but was more accurate in 2020.  Apparently early voting has blown away previous records and for some reason early voters lean Democrat, although there are some polls showing that the early votes are more evenly split this year.

Not quite.  The new House reps select 1 vote, not the current Reps in the House, and polling seems to indicate the House races are getting tighter and is likely up for grabs and there's potential for a stalemate.  The House can vote all day long and if nobody is cast the winner by Jan 21 (need 26 votes), the new VP takes over, which is selected by the new Senate (all 100 vote) and is likely Vance as polling shows a slight R lead.  And remembering the House voting for Speaker not too long ago, I predict the House would continue to vote until 2026 or Trump is incarcerated.  That's one way to keep both Trump and Harris out of the Oval. 

Edited November 4, 2024 by disgruntledemployee
To add Dr Strange

[Vito]

 Big gender gap, women and young voters leaning to Harris, Men, to Trump. Reminds me of this scene in “The Godfather”. Women and kids rarely pay the price for dumb decisions. Men always pay the consequences and have to clean up the mess.

 

[Smokin]

7 hours ago, Ebony zer said:

Smokin,

I'm not sure where you get your data but if Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, along with Omaha 2 she has 270 electoral college votes. Trump almost has to win one of the blue wall states in order to win. 

 

As for polling in 2016 vs 2020, in 2020 the polls were the most inaccurate they've been in the last 40 years. They still projected Biden to win, but the margin of error was significant. 

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2021/07/19/pre-election-polls-in-2020-had-the-largest-errors-in-40-years/

Was just going off of real clear politics website, maybe my math was off.

1 hour ago, disgruntledemployee said:

Not quite.  The new House reps select 1 vote, not the current Reps in the House, and polling seems to indicate the House races are getting tighter and is likely up for grabs and there's potential for a stalemate.  The House can vote all day long and if nobody is cast the winner by Jan 21 (need 26 votes), the new VP takes over, which is selected by the new Senate (all 100 vote) and is likely Vance as polling shows a slight R lead.  And remembering the House voting for Speaker not too long ago, I predict the House would continue to vote until 2026 or Trump is incarcerated.  That's one way to keep both Trump and Harris out of the Oval.

You are correct that it is the new House, however you missed the part about each state gets a single vote.  "But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote;" (12th Amendment).  I don't care how close the House is, when California (normally 54 electoral votes) gets entirely canceled out by Wyoming (normally 3 electoral votes), zero chance the Dems win.

Edit to add: They can't delay past March or the VP becomes the President and clearly the Republicans wouldn't delay to effectively choose her.

Edited November 5, 2024 by Smokin