Same. On the bright side, if the CCP wants to mount an actual invasion, the massing of forces will take months and be very, very obvious. Cutting off Chinese oil imports will be as simple as parking a few warships in the Straight of Malacca (there are a few pipelines, but they won’t come close to supplying Chinese needs). I’ve read that their domestic reserves would allow for roughly 90 days of wartime ops. That’s how long Taiwan has to hold out. Even if the invasion were successful, the Chinese will be effectively blockaded indefinitely. Energy and, more importantly, food imports will be a thing of the past and millions of Chinese citizens will starve or freeze (or both). Even if they could get access to some imports, their export industry will be toast and they won’t have money to pay for food. The carrier killer missiles might make life difficult within a couple hundred miles of Formosa but they won’t have much effect down by Singapore or out in the Indian Ocean or the Persian Gulf. The Chinese lack the reach to protect their supply lines. If we wanted to, we could turn China into North Korea in a matter of months and there’s fuck all they could do about it. Xi and the gang know this. There won’t be an intentional conflict any time soon. Unintentional? Maybe a bigger threat. Hope the air defense guys on their boats don’t have itchy trigger fingers like the Russians.