What do I think Russia should capitulate on? Honestly, I don't know. Ukraine and Russia have relationships going back hundred of years. I don't have the expertise necessary to parse all that history into something that's workable to end the war. I don't know what the right answer is. Maybe Russia takes all of Crimea, the Donbass becomes an independent state, and Ukraine gets some sort of Swedish-like "NATO-lite" membership, where they aren't a full NATO member, but still enjoy some of the benefits?
In theory, we have a State Department that's full of professionals with the expertise to facilitate these kinds of negotiations. Normally, these State Department pros would have the support and backing of the White House, as they seek to thread-the-needle of promoting global peace and democracy, while ensuring global stability, and at the same time looking out for America's best interests.
Instead, we have a President running his mouth about pushing another world leader out of power. And as far as I can tell, Sec of State Blinken has done fuck-all to help deescalate the whole thing.
I don't have a crystal ball any more than the next person. But I'm concerned that our foreign policy of the last 20 years seems to revolve around spending our blood and treasure dredging up old foes of the 80s and 90s, like we're some movie studio bent on rebooting all the classics.
We got Saddam, we got Gaddafi, and our war on Iran seems to be forever under script development. We've done nothing but break a lot of people and leave instability and chaos in our wake. And now with Ukraine, we're seeing a possibility of remaking the biggest 80's classic of all: Evil Russia vs. the Red, White, and Blue. Only this isn't some tin-pot dictator in an isolated kingdom. Russia has a lot of nukes, and a lot of economic ties in Europe and Asia.
I want to see us head down the path of de-escalation. Instead, all I see is "Russia Bad, Ukraine Good," and other such nonsense.