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Measurably stronger. The vaccines have remained incredibly durable across variants for reducing your chances of hospitalization and death. Even if you are in the young/healthy demographic, the vaccine reduces those risks further. We are now getting close to a year removed from widespread vaccine implementation and a year and a half from the initial testing. If a statistically significant, concerning long term side effect was going to happen, it would have manifested by now. The idea of a some completely unseen side effect popping up 10 years from now after not manifesting anywhere after billions of doses, is a silly, unscientific boogeyman. I'm sure it's unpleasant to go against your "convictions" about the vaccine. But frankly, if you signed on the dotted line to serve in the military, I don't give a rats ass about your vaccine convictions. It's a lawful order and you follow it, or get out. I have lots of convictions about weed, and facial hair, and wars i don't agree with but I know what I signed up for and I don't have a conniption every time the military tells me to shut up and color. **Huge caveat: Civilian side mandates are a completely different debate, and generally speaking, I think they're wrong.

The California Fire Pilots Association (CFPA) has created an updated website with much more information than previously available. Some of which is the path to a career in fire aviation. Here is a link to the careers page: Careers | California Fire Pilots Association (calfirepilots.com) Also, this season a couple of our pilots participated in an episode of the Pilot to Pilot podcast. There is a wealth of knowledge for anyone interested in the topic. CalFire- Fighting Wild Fires by Air by Pilot to Pilot - Aviation Podcast (anchor.fm) Here's a badass photo of my fellow Columbia Air Attack Base tanker pilot Ken, saving some structures near Clear Lake last summer...

I find those who have difficulty understanding the convictions of others rarely have particularly meaningful convictions of their own. So he probably won't.

He's a twice passed over nav that has no identity to latch onto but his military service. He can't just punch at the first chance like most of us to go to a more lucrative job where we can make decisions on our own. Of course he's going to die on the vaccination hill because if he wasn't vaccinated, he wouldn't have a paycheck. You can keep feeding the troll or just pat the nav on the head and smile and nod.

I hope you one day have to face a choice between ensuring your family is taken care of or jeopardizing them for something you feel is right.

There actually is significant study on this particular point. BLUF: serious side effects historically manifest in the short term if at all. So the idea that a side effect would not present in the short term after billions of doses over a year and a half, and then magically spring into existence 10 years from now doesn't make much sense historically or scientifically. "Going back at least as far as the polio vaccine, which was widely released to the public in the 1960s, we’ve never seen a vaccination with long-term side effects, meaning side effects that occur several months or years after injection. And, in every vaccine available to us, side effects — including rare but serious side effects — develop within six to eight weeks of injection." Source: https://wexnermedical.osu.edu/blog/covid-19-vaccine-long-term-side-effects

Careful trying to use math as your high horse, because there is actually validity in what Ratner is saying from a mathematical perspective. Marginal changes in R0 for an extremely infectious disease do not significantly affect the ultimate end state. This is because a population is limited, so exponential growth is ultimately only possible at the beginning. And logistic limiting effects are basically unimportant until a huge amount of society has been infected. This is due to the fact that, even with masking and vaccines for the entire population, the vaccine would spread with an R0 well greater than 1. That’s what actually matters. None of this feel good, I have less likelihood to give COVID to my kids when they are at home, bs. The truth is, they’ll just get it in the future. In reality, with an R0 estimated around 5, with vaccines that are 50% effective (many studies dispute this and estimate it closer to 10-30%), you’d still need masks and social distancing to be close to 60-70% effective. Good thing the CDC, in internal modeling, estimates masking effectiveness around 20-30%. For a good summary, just read the delta predictions on the last source below. Bottom line is that it is nigh impossible to stop this with the vaccines we have. Sources: R0 of Delta: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34369565/ Vaccines are not that effective after a short period of time: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y Masking efficacy is estimated at 20-30%: (page 20) In reality, all that these mandates do (for a shot that is not as effective as we wish it was) are draw out the inevitable - most of the population will get infected at some point. If hospitals are fine - and they ARE right now, from a national perspective - what’s the benefit to society of the blue curve vs the red one? Yeah, people are going to die. But there actually isn’t much you can do about it, and most of it really is their own choice as to whether they want to be vaccinated or not. We should do what we can to “flatten the curve” to a level that is sustainable from a healthcare perspective. The vaccine has been extremely effective in reducing hospitalizations and death for society to a sustainable level. Curve: flattened. If we’re sustainable now, then we have won. Mandates aren’t going to help society any more, and instead will only serve as a tool to continue politicization of the masses. The only thing that would actually work is having people stay home and actually limit contact - a la China - but we’ve seen the disastrous effects of that policy on both the economy and society. Juice isn’t worth the squeeze.

I think the final call was BS on the FIA, but the true great battle there was Checo holding back Lewis for Max to gain ground. That was fun to watch.

It's subjective but...pinning a fresh set of soft reds against a set of ancient whites for a lap, I don't know if I'd consider that in the best interest of racing. The second those tires went on everyone knew how the race was going to end if those cars were moved. F1 is just too dominated by strategy to start modifying the playbook at the finale. I guess if fans want anarchy for entertainment making it up as you go works. As a fan i found it to be a disappointing climax to the season, and I couldn't careless whether it was Merc or RB that came out on top. The integrity of competition should be the priority. Maybe they should have a provision where if a safety car comes out with less than 5 laps to go, all cars must pit, which would get rid of the stupid tire hocus pocus. And just like the FAA/aviation....there's some really dumb decisions/policies that get made. Remember, this is the series that gave us the spectacular 2021 Belgian Grand Prix. What a joke.

This pandemic is over.

Driver61 actually read the FIA rules, and similar to aviation, it turns out that the race director can waive rules if he thinks it is in the best interest of racing. There is also a policy which discourages finishing races behind the safety car.

Our maintainers at McClellan do a thorough inspection of the aircraft during the off season. Recently the state has installed a load monitoring sensor kit which should help find any issues early. I believe the Fed Contract tankers have been mandated to have a similar system for a number of years since the two wing failure incidents in 2002. I'm not sure of the specifics though. The state operated S-2s have the advantage of being designed from the start to operate entirely in the low altitude and carrier environment, so they are massively overbuilt. Also, The E and G models we fly now were all built in the '62 to '67 period and usually served only 5 years or so operationally before being parked at DM. That being said, they have been in use as air tankers for about 20 years now, so there are issues that pop up, but the state has been good about tackling those issues as they arise since they value the capability the S-2 brings in their model of wildland fire fighting. The S-2 has been the backbone of Californias tanker fleet since the mid 1970s, first with the radial S-2As and now with the converted turbine S-2Ts. Prior to that the mainstay was the TBM Avenger and a mix of Fed large tankers (DC-4, C-119, B-17, PB4Y, etc)

In before the goalpost shift to religious exemption argument

Hopefully! I got the notice my TFCS waiver was approved 16 Nov. The email said to expect results from the board mid-Jan '22.

So get the J&J shot. It's not mRNA.

Confirm all those previous studies cited are in reference to mRNA vaccines / therapeutics? Oh, they aren't? So we're applying a meta analysis of apples to oranges. Ok 👍. Just so I'm clear.

There it is, the overstep. Definitely a troll. You had me for a while, well done 😂🤣

A paycheck that keeps his family fed. Tough situation for anyone to be in. Do you think our military is stronger or weaker now that we’ve forced our members to do this?

Because the right guys are out there, it’s not a zero sum game. However, tough sell to pick a heavy guy over a fighter guy when you’re talking about the one TX you have to give. But timing matters a lot, and perhaps great dude heavy guy has zero competition for an available TX, thus he gets the job. Totally support MAF guy rushing, but go in eyes wide open - your chances are historically low (but not zero).

My mistake, I thought we were in a thread talking about COVID mandates. If I knew we were going to quibble over context-free interpretations of my post, I would have made it simpler to follow for you.

“Never talk to the media” is an old Rainman rule that has stuck with me. An easy rule to remember since I get a new reminder of why every month. Widman was in my OTS class. Universally panned, narcissistic, loud, humorless, mean, prideful, and power-hungry. I think I got them all. Oh, and zero chill.

Democrats are punishing America

Not saying the other 5 commanders weren't turds...but at any point is someone (leadership) going to look at the bigger picture here and ask WHY this happening so frequently?

Nah, it's got d.ck to do with age. Privately they don't believe in any of this sh!t either. They know all it takes to meet stated FY production goals is to re-open and staff a single additional former UPT base, and we're doneski here. But they also know that's not in the cards for the SECAF. So as conniving but ultimately rational actors, they play dumb regurgitating that "psychology of learning" disingenuous sophistry at the expense of the perennially revolving door of "f-- ck it I'm going to the airlines" burnt out rank and file instructor cadre, who they consider expendable and uncommitted for holding said sentiments in the first place. All the while retaining access for their post-retirement NoVA consultant six fig grift. Nothing new under the sun. The problem with the GO in question is he exhibits a penchant for grudge holding and narcissism above and beyond that of the average GO. The enterprise is certainly worse off for it. But this too shall pass. Yes, some kids are getting burned as casualties of the experiment. But everybody who signed on the dotted line knew they were in for a f$cking at some point or another. Not condoning it, just reiterating the 3 axioms of military life.

Pawnman you’re the last person who needs to be lecturing based upon “risk”

As opposed to people willing to risk a 99% survival rate but not a 99.9999% rate of no adverse effects?

Are you also unwilling to put them in your car? Because they're more likely to get injured or killed in an accident than by the vaccines.

Did you balk at any of the other vaccines your kids required before you sent them to school? Did you do a deep-dive on the VAERS data for MMR before taking them to the pediatrician? You guys are taking a political stand and trying to disguise it as concern for your health.

Do you feel that way about all vaccines...or just one specific one?

What I hear is that you traded your convictions for a paycheck.