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Clark Griswold

The Iran thread

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New thread for Iranian happenings.

Protests into the third day, another chance offered by history to support Iranians who don't want to live in under a brutal theocracy:

https://www.redstate.com/slee/2017/12/30/iran-may-experiencing-world-changing-legitimate-resistance-movement-american-media-yawns/

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/30/middleeast/iran-protests-intl/index.html

 

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They will do what they always do, start shooting protesters, hard liner thugs going house to house terrorizing Persian Joe Six packs and their families. Only chance of change if young officers in the Army and Air Force say enough and neutralize the Revolutionary Guard the Mullahs muscle.  What we can do in Iraq is to take on Iranian back Shiites who said they want to go after our guys who helped them with Isis. If Iraqis start killing Americans I see a pivot toward a independent Kurdistan armed to the teeth. Turkey won't risk locking horns with a NATO ally.

  

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Not to worry, guys over on other aviation forums/FB groups have already figured out it was a false flag operation so we can get involved in yet another war.  

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2 hours ago, SocialD said:

Not to worry, guys over on other aviation forums/FB groups have already figured out it was a false flag operation so we can get involved in yet another war.  

So can I start counting on that tax free yet, or...?

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6 hours ago, pawnman said:

So can I start counting on that tax free yet, or...?

Doesn’t your airplane have to be there to get the tax free?

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Just now, SurelySerious said:

Doesn’t your airplane have to be there to get the tax free?

Depends on if AUAB becomes a tax free location again once the shooting starts.  Also...fuck you.  But in a jovial way, not an angry one.

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With Iranian internal problems could this be a ploy to unite everyone against the great Satan? The ruling junta in Argentina tried this before by invading the Falklands in 1982. Did not turn out to well. Just thinking out loud. Last time back in the 80's we sent most of the Iranian blue water Navy to the bottom.

 

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Prosuper said:

 Just thinking out loud. Last time back in the 80's we sent most of the Iranian blue water Navy to the bottom.

 

I figure we have 6 plus more years of this stuff (based on the 1980's - Tanker War Model) before POTUS takes action against Iran:<)  Just a few tidbits on the Tanker War. Here's a short rundown on the yearly total attacks against commercial shipping transiting the Persian Gulf AO before President Reagan finally took action; Notes; this list includes 72 NATO member countries commercial ships hit/attacked (including a few US Commercial ships) and 81 other commercial ships hit/attacked belonging to countries the USA has mutual defense treaties with.
1. 1981; 5 ships hit/attacked; President Reagan starts his first term;
2. 1982; 22 ships hit/attacked;
3. 1983; 16 ships hit/attacked;
4. 1984; 71 ships hit/attacked;
5. 1985; 47 ships hit/attacked; President Reagan starts his second term as POTUS;
6. 1986; 111 ships hit/attacked;
7, 1987; 179 ships hit/attacked; 24 July 1987 Operation Earnest Will starts and President Reagan finally starts taking action against Iran, 2 1/2 years into his second term.

Edited by waveshaper

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You can’t really compare the two situations. Back in the 1980s, Iran and Iraq were in the middle of a bloody war and Iran was targeting the ships transporting Iraqi oil. Attacks on shipping during a time of no open hostilities takes it to another level. I’m not really sure what in the hell the Iranians are thinking.


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11 minutes ago, MooseAg03 said:

You can’t really compare the two situations. Back in the 1980s, Iran and Iraq were in the middle of a bloody war and Iran was targeting the ships transporting Iraqi oil. Attacks on shipping during a time of no open hostilities takes it to another level. I’m not really sure what in the hell the Iranians are thinking.


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They know Americans don't want another Afghanistan, so they're doing things to project power knowing the US won't launch a military strike. 

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Iran has been hurt hard by sanctions. They're logic will soon be "If we can't sell oil, neither can the other Gulf States." If things get bad enough, Iran could close the Straight of Hormuz. They can't just close the straight right now, they will have to buildup to it. Expect things to get worse. 

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Posted (edited)
On ‎6‎/‎14‎/‎2019 at 11:58 AM, MooseAg03 said:

 I’m not really sure what in the hell the Iranians are thinking.


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IMHO, for now everyone should take a chill pill because there's way to many villains/groups that could've potentially pulled off these attacks (with Iranians at the top of the list), for a wide variety of stupid reasons. Hopefully our leadership will wait until solid evidence is collected/analyzed/double-triple checked/etc - before we start another war. Note; In my career I was personally involved (hands on/did the demo work/etc) with boarding/sinking/recovering a number of ships/vessels. These vessels/ships ranged in size from a 100 ft Korean Junk/Ghost Vessel (blasted this one to pieces in the Yellow Sea) to ships over 400ft.

For now (just for fun), I'm going to blame these Limpet Mine attacks on some off-the-wall  "AOC Inspired" - Green New Deal/Global Warming Activist Group (they don't like oil/tankers/etc), at least until we get some of that "Solid Evidence":<) The only 4 recorded/verified Limpet Mine attacks/campaigns over the past 40 years or so were actually carried out by France,  Activist Groups, or Tamil Sea Tigers, and Israel.  See below;
- Group 1; French intel folks sunk the Raindow Warrior with 2 Limpet Mines.

- Group 2;  Activist Group/s sunk half the Spanish Whaling fleet in only six months using Limpet Mines.

- Group 3; Tamil Sea Tiger Divers sunk the Sri Lankan Navy M/V Invincible logistics ship (loaded with munitions) with a single Limpet Mine. 

- Group 4; Israel sunk the 389 foot PLO ship called the Sol Phryne in 1988 with a Limpet Mine. Also, they're the only country in the middle-east AO that has a loooong history of using Limpet Mines to sink numerous commercial/military - ships/vessels belonging to the PLO, Egypt, etc.

Edited by waveshaper
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I would guess these mine attacks where the intel that sent more US Navy ships to gulf last month.

I’m sure it was carried out by some radical faction/terrorist Group that is supported by Iran. Let’s not forget in 2016/2017 the anti ship missile attacks off the Yemen coast on the UAE Navy ship, and a few days later on US Navy destroyer. (Ships defensive measures successfully stopped incoming fires) I believe later that year a MQ-9 was shot down by a SA-6 in Yemen as well. Iran has backed these rebel groups that have been attacking Saudi for some time.

You are drunk and high if you think some asshole goat farmers and run of the mill terrorists  with a AK-47s can operate/maintain/employ old complex Soviet anti ship/anti aircraft radar/weapons systems. 

Much harder to target a couple divers in a skiff or drug cartel type sub than a big semi mobile radar dish with a missile launcher and missiles the size of telephone poles. Much easier to deny involvement as well. 

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1 hour ago, viper154 said:

You are drunk and high if you think some asshole goat farmers and run of the mill terrorists  with a AK-47s can operate/maintain/employ old complex Soviet anti ship/anti aircraft radar/weapons systems. 

Every Soviet male had to serve...so you can find plenty of ?experienced? personal in this world.  

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4 minutes ago, Sim said:

Every Soviet male had to serve...so you can find plenty of ?experienced? personal in this world.  

Sure, but how many middle eastern, 3rd world, live in tin/mud huts type people have contacts and resources to get former Soviet missile system operators/parts in country. Going to need outside help and money 

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From conversations with my Navy bros, looks like Iranian limpet mines. That said, and my own opinion, it was more a ‘we could’ve sunk you but we didnt’ move. Aka, flexing muscles.

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Iran’s previous calculus on closing the Strait of Hormuz/attacking tankers in the Gulf included the fact that most of the petroleum products they export (a significant chunk of their economic revenue) pass through the same waters.  Closing it would be like cutting off their nose to spite their face, in 3-4 months their economy would be crippled.

That calculus has changed; the additional US sanctions now make it extremely difficult for Iran to export petroleum products to the world market.  I think there’s a good chance that tensions and probably attacks will rise/increase since Iran now has little to lose economically by closing the Strait.  Honestly not sure how this will play out mid to long term, I don’t think POTUS personally wants another war but there are members of the administration that openly do.

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Well it’s just like back in election year 12. They sent a SU25 to shoot at an MQ-1. Shooting at our military equipment and airplanes doesn’t appear to be an act of war.

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22 hours ago, Bigred said:

From conversations with my Navy bros, looks like Iranian limpet mines. That said, and my own opinion, it was more a ‘we could’ve sunk you but we didnt’ move. Aka, flexing muscles.

Concur 

They took one of the crews into custody / hostage from one of the tankers and are now taking them to Dubai, just wanted bent/burnt metal not bodies.

3 hours ago, Guardian said:

Well it’s just like back in election year 12. They sent a SU25 to shoot at an MQ-1. Shooting at our military equipment and airplanes doesn’t appear to be an act of war.

History rhymes 

 

Ok, so how do you give feedback to let the Iranian regime (not civilians) know this will not be tolerated?  What do you strike, seize, deny that causes the regime enough pain to stop?

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