My pilot training commitment was up in 1998. I aligned my tuition assistance and PCS commitments with my pilot training one so I had options. Airline opportunities were good from 1996-2001. Plenty of good dudes got out and plenty stayed in. There was a lot discussion about quality of life, pay, AF bullshit, bad leadership, retirement benefits, etc. The biggest factor impacting pilot retention is airline hiring demand, period. The airline job and lifestyle are very appealing to many people. I stayed in because I was good at it, I enjoyed it, and I didn't want to drag a black suitcase behind me on the way to a hotel for 10-14 days a month. I liked flying in the Air Force and the additional money and free time weren't that important to me. I decided to stay in before the bonus was offered. I took it, but I didn't stay in because of it. 9/11 changed everything for me. We saw many people quit their airline jobs to return and serve. After 9/11 I decided to continue serving until I was told my talents and service were no longer needed. We are a nation at war with an enemy determined to kill our families and destroy our way of life. I serve because someone needs to defend this great nation from the evil assholes that will attack us whenever they can. I'm still good at my job, I still enjoy it and not many people have the opportunity to do what I do. I enjoy taking the fight to the enemy and kicking the shit out of him on a regular basis.
We are on the cusp of a big airline hiring surge and we will see retention drop. Good people will do what is best for them. All of those who leave service for other options should be genuinely thanked for their service and assisted with the transition to civilian life. Most will be combat hardened veterans who have earned the respect of a grateful nation and Air Force. They are not "quitters" or disloyal, they are incredible men and women who volunteered to serve honorably and have more than paid back what they owe for the training, resources and experience the AF invested in them. They are also not all disgruntled, or are quitting because senior leadership has lost their minds, or they are in mourning because their traditions have been ripped from them. We shouldn't attempt to broadly characterize why some don't stay and we shouldn't broadly categorize why people stay in. The reasons are complex and usually based on the individual's preferences more than institutional advantages or shortcomings. We should not tolerate talk and actions related to post-service employment at work. Do the f*ing job you are paid to do and plan for your post-service job on your own time. Stop the airline conversations in the pilot shop and make sure people are earning their damn paychecks.
Flying hours and modernization will continue to be cut. Afghanistan and deployments will wind down. Staffs will be reduced. School opportunities will continue to be cut. Congress and POTUS will continue to cut defense spending and expect reduced costs. The all-time high retention rates we have seen will drop and we will have pilot production and retention challenges. Our all volunteer force will step up and meet the demands our nation asks us to meet. It will all work out.