Intellectual exercise. Please take the question as that and not sport b1tching against zipper-suited sun gods:
Lots of complaints since the results of the last board(s) released (and even more since Air Force time began). Comments about "saving the top 15% of a commander's strats for pilots" or the like abound. I do not for a minute defend how Big Blue does promotions (trust me, I have my own war story that absolutely no one but me cares about anyway), but if you are going to complain, then at least spend a few minutes on a way to fix it (that will never be considered. The leviathan likes what it does since what it does got those in power there in the first place.)
A few comparison have been made about MX guys and other support fields leading airmen while highly-qualified pilots are doing the mission. I agree, but think bigger.
The ops personnel in the Air Force are, largely, technicians. Highly, and expensively, trained, but still technicians. Even AC's of big jets run a very small fire-team equivalent. Again, stay with me. Not at all blowing off the absolute library of information that every pilot has to know, the amount of buffoonery he/she has to overcome in order to accomplish the mission, etc, etc, etc.
But the actual operating and employing the equipment - jet, missile capsule, computer keyboard, satellite keyboard - is the job of a technician. Obviously, not including the CC or DO of a unit (but USAF does a piss poor job of getting those people practice at the junior ranks so a good one is more a matter of luck than training/growth).
IF, again, IF the purpose of a promotion board is to reward and encourage the growth of future leaders, then doesn't the technician enter the fight at a disadvantage? Leave aside the PME and other square-fills, but the currency here seems to be "being good in the jet." Which I don't disagree with.
Uncle spent a helluva lot of money on you, and you expended a helluva lot of sweat to earn the wings, then keep them and be awesome (hopefully) at employing the jet. He opened his wallet to make you a world-class technician, in my opinion. He's hoping that you'll figure out on your own how to be a good leader. Not a great investment strategy in my mind since if you don't, Big Blue will get rid of you.
So if the board is looking at leadership, then Capt Snuffy leading a flight of 200 would seem to have an advantage over Capt Bag O' who, even though a Patch and a mission commander, might lead a flight of 10 at the squadron. Apples to razor blades comparison regarding level of difficulty in the warfighting, but technical, aspect. But the amount of asspain in dealing with 200 airmen does equate in time and frustration for that captain as it does for the jet-jockey captain who is held back by the shoe-world.
As an aside, and one that won't gather much agreement, the proposal to auto-give the top strats to rated over support does seem to be against basic fairness. As an institution, the Air Force already does that, at least so far, with the numbers of support GOs compared to the numbers of rated GOs. We are the Air Force, after all, so the big chief should be a rated guy. But the mantra of a rated guy running AFPC and doing a better job just because he's rated seems a little unionized to me (he wouldn't do a worse job, very much agreed!). But if Capt Snuffy sees he has no chance of a successful career simply because of his job, then he, like you will punch and take his talent and skills where he can advance.
The difference between him and you, largely and a huge generalization, is the amount of money Big Blue spent on you. And in today's environment, you have some golden opportunities which I wish you well and hope you go for it. But if he leaves, Big Blue has to spend its resources on finding his replacement as well. Much cheaper to do so, admittedly, but a few hundred here, a few hundred there, and pretty soon it's some real money.
One proposal has been the promote by AFSC. How long until the b1tching about 11Fs far out-promoting 11Rs? Or pick your shred-out to complain about.
My thinking runs somewhere along the lines of making a dual-tracked commissioned and call it whatever you want, but for my purposes, warrant officer program. Similar in concept to Army rotary wing, but not run the same. You still have to grow future WG/CCs, etc, but you make the officer pilot a leader at a much younger age. Put MX back into a squadron and have Capt Bag O' be a department head (er, sts) like the Navy does. True, he won't likely be your Night 1, #1 guy, but there is no reason he couldn't be #3 or the second -4-ship lead. You also reduce the need for the MX officers. Meanwhile, your Warrants are the tactical technicians that you all seem to strive for.
BTW, the pay for these Warrants would be a very special duty pay like ACP but much larger. Fly and you get a lot of money but don't have the BS PME and other squares that Big Blue demands. But you have to fly to get it.
Soooo many holes in this way too long post to identify, but the bottom line is the Air Force says it promotes based on past performance, including leadership and on the expectation that you will continue to perform and lead, with more emphasis on the latter as you progress in rank. A flyer not in a command position would seem to be defensive at the board merge.