It seems to me like the ATP requirement should actually work in the Air Force's favor. As many have pointed out, the new rules pose a prohibitively high cost of entry into the professional flying community. In theory, this should help the AF's recruitment effort. Judging by this assessment:
it would seem that the best path for anybody seriously considering a professional pilot career is through the military.
Also, it seems that an experienced (10-year) military pilot is always going to be highly competitive for the major airline jobs. This would indicate that even if the ATP rules were relaxed, allowing the market to become flooded with a legit civilian pilot pipeline, the experienced mil guys/gals transitioning from AD would still remain highly qualified even in a competitive job market.
Ultimately, the only solution to the AF problem is internal (or at least resides within the USG.) Relaxing the ATP requirement only serves to reduce the pool of qualified applicants seeking AD military flying jobs, but does little-to-nothing to keep experienced pilots in service on the back end.
At the risk of opening a can of worms here, if you ask me, it all boils down to this un-winnable war on VEOs. Allow me to pontificate a bit... Opstempo, morale, toxic leadership, money problems, polarized government and populace - all of these tensions draw (at least in part) from the incredible drain caused by the last 15 years at war. Furthermore, anybody that thinks that these VEOs can be decisively defeated is either disillusioned, ignorant, or just plain stupid. I realize that most will see this sidebar as only being tangentially related at best, but I believe its actually fundamental. The AF is not sinking because of any civilian pilot production capacity issue. The AF is sinking because of a virus which has taken root and festered inside of the conditions created by this un-winnable war. The financial strains drive the requirement for efficiency, yet the security requirements undermine that efficiency. Further, the opstempo drives increased workload for all. This means that we literally have to "do more with less." The toxic leadership results from a culture of refusing to say "no" or "can't" to our civilian political masters. The end result is a force that is stretched thin, past the breaking point, meeting at a juncture with a rebounding economy providing much more tantalizing opportunities for the service's best and brightest. The result is inevitable, a hollow force. If the DOD wants to get serious about remaining ready for the future threats posed by the "4+1" it needs to seriously reconsider its objectives as related to dealing with VEOs.
OK, rant off. BL, I agree with the majority that the CSAF is barking up the wrong tree here, and that gearpig is probably closer to the truth than most would like to believe.