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On 5/23/2020 at 10:50 AM, dream big said:

Texas, Florida and a few other states are a few weeks into “opening things up” and so far so good.  The sky isn’t falling and the death rate has peaked.  Far stretch from the doom and gloom we heard about from certain people.  If someone has a problem with it then they are welcome to stay at home. 

Michigan on the other hand? The ‘queen’ there is asking for a rebellion. 

Me and my friends up here are just ignoring the bitch and enjoying our lives. 

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On 5/23/2020 at 6:10 PM, kaputt said:

Great article.  Hopefully next time a great panic comes knocking we’ll delay tossing out freedoms at least until we have real data, not merely projections by self described experts.  Speaking of which, now that data has disproven the experts, can we cease calling them experts?

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9 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

Great article.  Hopefully next time a great panic comes knocking we’ll delay tossing out freedoms at least until we have real data, not merely projections by self described experts.  Speaking of which, now that data has disproven the experts, can we cease calling them experts?

I respect you man but this type of thinking is so disappointing.

“Self-described experts?” People like Dr. Fauci are experts in their field, full stop. World-class expertise. Top 0.01% level expertise. Lots of other doctors and scientists and public health experts are working hard to try to beat this thing so we can stop people from dying and all get back to living our lives as normally as possible.

The problem is that science is hard and uncertain and this virus is novel and translating scientific data and observations into public policy is also hard and gets filtered through 50 different governors and the entire federal executive branch.

I’m totally fine blaming public policy leaders for failures (I certainly do right now!), but to let public policy failures lead you to throw out the entire concept of expertise is really unfortunate.

You are an expert in your line of work; would you want some random guy off the street to completely discredit and mistrust you if there was a mishap or CIVCAS incident? I think not. I mean, they will and they do, but it’s not the right stance to take.

The article The Death of Expertise is really relevant here, check it out if you can. The book with the same title was fine but the OP article is really all you need.

Edited by nsplayr
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6 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

I respect you man but this type of thinking is so disappointing.

“Self-described experts?” People like Dr. Fauci are experts in their field, full stop. World-class expertise. Top 0.01% level expertise. Lots of other doctors and scientists and public health experts are working hard to try to beat this thing so we can stop people from dying and all get back to living our lives as normally as possible.

The problem is that science is hard and uncertain and this virus is novel and translating scientific data and observations into public policy is also hard and gets filtered through 50 different governors and the entire federal executive branch.

I’m totally fine blaming public policy leaders for failures (I certainly do right now!), but to let public policy failures lead you to throw out the entire concept of expertise is really unfortunate.

You are an expert in your line of work; would you want some random guy off the street to completely discredit and mistrust you if there was a mishap or CIVCAS incident? I think not. I mean, they will and they do, but it’s not the right stance to take.

The book The Death of Expertise is really relevant here, check it out if you can. The book was fine but the OP article is really all you need.

I'll agree its not the experts fault. I think where the animosity comes from is how expertise translates to policy. If you are a governor and you are overseeing a crisis like this, obviously you are going to fill your staff with doctors to advise you. The problem is, doctors, by their nature, want to save lives. Their value on life and life saving medicine supersedes any other requirement for society because that is their job and their hippocratic oath. And we should be glad they are like that. Its what keeps them 16 hours in an emergency room exhausting every possible solution and experimental treatment necessary to save some lives. But it doesn't translate to policy well. So if you let your doctors run away with the decision making of course they are going to say "we must completely lock down everyone and barricade their homes to save every last single life possible and no-one must die!"

Then you have to top that off with the public's demand for information. I think people with a minimal verse in science know these models are hard to read and are not designed to do what we are using them for. But when the governor gets on TV people don't like to hear "i think" and "it seems like". They want to hear "yeah, we are definitely going to be open again in 3 weeks, that will be the peak." 

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4 hours ago, nsplayr said:

I respect you man but this type of thinking is so disappointing.

“Self-described experts?” People like Dr. Fauci are experts in their field, full stop. World-class expertise. Top 0.01% level expertise. Lots of other doctors and scientists and public health experts are working hard to try to beat this thing so we can stop people from dying and all get back to living our lives as normally as possible.

The problem is that science is hard and uncertain and this virus is novel and translating scientific data and observations into public policy is also hard and gets filtered through 50 different governors and the entire federal executive branch.

I’m totally fine blaming public policy leaders for failures (I certainly do right now!), but to let public policy failures lead you to throw out the entire concept of expertise is really unfortunate.

You are an expert in your line of work; would you want some random guy off the street to completely discredit and mistrust you if there was a mishap or CIVCAS incident? I think not. I mean, they will and they do, but it’s not the right stance to take.

The article The Death of Expertise is really relevant here, check it out if you can. The book with the same title was fine but the OP article is really all you need.

Good post.  And I respect to you too.  Especially because you defend your ideas and engage in the frustratingly messy act of attempting to convince others.  Precisely why I’m frustrated at “experts” who had no time to explain the science behind unprecedented lockdowns, we just have to do it now!!  But we have data indicating otherwise, so it’s reasonable to ask the people who insisted we obey without debate to explain how they were so dramatically wrong.  Turns out being knowledgeable about infectious diseases doesn’t mean you know shit about public policy or predicting the future (FLEA said it more eloquently).
 

Additionally, I welcome debate about my line of work.  Tactical debate on execution isn’t germane, just as no one is seriously debating exactly how doctors treat patients.  But overall strategic debate about the wars, our goals, etc.?  I welcome a national debate, and the various “expert” generals who have lost for 20 years definitely could use the second guessing.  Good analogy!

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What we’ve seen here is peer-review in public instead of in private where scientists usually hack out these things. Usually scientists can hammer away at methods and weaknesses of studies, data, and conclusions in private and then what emerges more closely resembles a scientific consensus. This pandemic did not have the luxury of time and private peer review for better or worse. It’s perfectly normal that experts disagree, sometimes vehemently. We just don’t usually see behind the curtain as regular Joes. 
 

Congress will need to form a commission on COVID-19 just as they did with 9/11. And I expect that in a couple years we’ll perhaps manage to create some solutions. 

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Good talk gents, faith in humanity briefly restored. Stay safe out there, pour one out for those who never made it back, kill some terrorists, and try not to get the Rona. 🇺🇸

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7 hours ago, nsplayr said:

I respect you man but this type of thinking is so disappointing.

“Self-described experts?” People like Dr. Fauci are experts in their field, full stop. World-class expertise. Top 0.01% level expertise. Lots of other doctors and scientists and public health experts are working hard to try to beat this thing so we can stop people from dying and all get back to living our lives as normally as possible.

The problem is that science is hard and uncertain and this virus is novel and translating scientific data and observations into public policy is also hard and gets filtered through 50 different governors and the entire federal executive branch.

I’m totally fine blaming public policy leaders for failures (I certainly do right now!), but to let public policy failures lead you to throw out the entire concept of expertise is really unfortunate.

You are an expert in your line of work; would you want some random guy off the street to completely discredit and mistrust you if there was a mishap or CIVCAS incident? I think not. I mean, they will and they do, but it’s not the right stance to take.

The article The Death of Expertise is really relevant here, check it out if you can. The book with the same title was fine but the OP article is really all you need.

Good summary. There's definitely a mismatch between science and policy (uncertain/changing science to rigid policy). Perhaps a better approach would be

1. Support / enable health functions (PPE, ventilators, licensing rules, contact tracing, etc.) and normal constitutional functions (immigration/customs processing).

2. Bring in experts from all areas, not just public health. While Dr. Fauci may be an expert epidemologist, his expertise in economics may be limited - we could optimize for zero disease anywhere, but would not produce an overall optimum result (increased economic damage/deaths from same). Similar to the initial entry flight docs who (perceive) no incentive to add to AF flying manning, and every incentive to prevent future med risk, so will go full deflection to the conservative call. Just like DIME can produce better results than military-only approaches in conflict, a whole of disciplines approach is needed (https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/03/61900/)

3. Instead of statewide policy by fiat, public health experts continually update guidance / risk communication / reasoning based on the latest info. Similar to the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dispersed_knowledge dispersed knowledge problem in economics, central policy makers can't know the specifics of everyone's relative health risk / situation / economic risk https://fee.org/articles/covid-19-and-the-trolley-problem-you-re-on-the-tracks-and-the-government-is-controlling-the-switch/. Instead, updated recommendations would allow everyone to make their optimum risk/reward balance.

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Guys, guys, guys!  This is not how online discourse between flyers is supposed to work!  Not one of you used the term “libtard” or referenced the “orange man.”  
 

I think we should all take few minutes to peruse Airline Pilot Central (pick a thread, any thread), then come back here and discuss this topic like mature adults with internet anonymity.  

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On 5/25/2020 at 1:36 PM, nsplayr said:

People like Dr. Fauci are experts in their field, full stop. World-class expertise. Top 0.01% level expertise.

For reference, I agree with your post and think you are on point.  

One specific item concerns me though: Dr Fauci as our expert physician.  I'm an ER doc's kid, so I've witnessed the difference between doctor who "administrate" vs doctors who "do".  I'm making no judgments on Fauci, I'm simply making inferences base on his background, how he presents his opinions, and the content of what he says.  He's clearly been a "do" doctor, and appears to be an "administrate" doctor now.

Take this for perspective: Would you call any 4-star general in the USAF as our BEST Pilot, Cyber Expert, Personnelist, etc?   I wouldn't.  They lead those people.  They filter a LOT of data and present it in politically and socially palatable format.  These people are leaders and politicians, and they are only in their spot for 3-4 years.  Fauci has been in place advising the US government for 40 years.  He leads NIAID.  He understands what's going on, but he is no longer the line "do" expert.  What a lot of people don't know how respond to is that line expert "doing" doctors are saying different things than Fauci and the political-health professional advisories coming from D.C.

That means, just like in the USAF, there are often different messages coming from the line than are coming from the front office.  Any pilot watching the USAF's pilot crisis has seen drastically different stories from the Top brass and the Line flyer voices.  "Pretty Darn Good", right?

Fauci is a politician and knows how to package information.  He also recognizes that he MUST provide advice that is palatable by the mass populous by way of the violently slanted media.  The problem with that is we all now have digital access to more voices than his, and we're hearing dissonance in the message.  As a (relatively) rational creature, I decide my way through differences instead of blindly trusting "experts" because i've seen FAR too many experts who weren't.  Do you trust every Instructor Pilot or Evaluator simply based on credentials?  Yeah, neither do I.  If the "expert's" message differs from rational principles, I look for truth elsewhere. 

What I've seen and heard from Fauci, tells me that he's driving a personal/private/political agenda that does NOT jive with ground truth.  (I get it, ground truth leads to ill informed masses making dumb decisions...that's a whole different discussion.)  So I discount him and the mass media and search elsewhere.  That makes me highly skeptical of any message that blindly references him based on credentials alone.  I don't think I'm alone in that...not by a long shot.

How do you think we're supposed to address that problem?  What do we do when reason pushes us to disregard experts like Fauci when we taste the political agenda?

 

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On 5/25/2020 at 9:02 PM, nsplayr said:

Good talk gents, faith in humanity briefly restored. Stay safe out there, pour one out for those who never made it back, kill some terrorists, and try not to get the Rona. 🇺🇸

The problem as I see it is that the experts are responsible for the backlash against expertise. I know it's fashionable to blame policy makers and political leaders, but they are still doing what they were put in position to do. Experts, however, have made a media-like move towards opinion making, not simply the hard work of science.

 

I think the root of it is that they are no longer willing to say that they do not know. And the coronavirus was a perfect opportunity to do just that. They just didn't know. Instead, they put out models that were based on incredibly thin data, and those models had sensational implications. Rather than recognizing those implications were hypothetical at best, they used the mere possibility of a catastrophic situation to justify catastrophic action. then, as humans are prone to do, they double down as their models fell apart. Because humans are prideful. if the experts had come out as soon as the data was starting to turn and said "our bad, this thing is nowhere near as dangerous as we thought it was, we should end the lockdowns immediately," then perhaps we would have a case for trusting experts. But they didn't.

 

This isn't the first time we've seen it either. They've been so catastrophically wrong on climate change that any good that could be done to the change that *is* based on science is probably lost. They've been wrong on diets as well. Overpopulation, peak oil, acid rain, the hole in the ozone, global cooling, they just keep getting it wrong.

 

That's fine, science is messy, and in the long term it always tends towards progress, but in the short term it is frequently, if not more often wrong. The problem is, they don't want to admit that because it would mean a loss of authority. Power is a hell of a drug.

 

You should trust an expert when they are interpreting a historical body of work in their field. When your doctor says your cholesterol needs to be fixed, you should trust him. when a structural engineer tells you that you need a foundation of a certain thickness, you should trust her. But if a UFO lands in your backyard tomorrow, there are no experts. New things seldom have the luxury of experts.

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The silver lining of this whole thing is we all get to skip PT test for an entire year!

Vegas buffet line here I come!

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7 hours ago, panchbarnes said:

The silver lining of this whole thing is we all get to skip PT test for an entire year!

Vegas buffet line here I come!

My last PT test was Sept of 19 and I recently found out I dont need another one until Sept of 21. I'm in shock and awe that the Air Force isn't going to overnight fall apart when dozens of individuals go non-current for their test. I don't understand how we are going to continue to fight the war on terror!?!?!

But my biggest sadness, is for my Senior Rater, who isn't sure how he is going to rack and stack thousands of Airman without a concrete and arbitrary number that poorly estimates their physical fitness. Its the end times for sure. 

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Also the “waste of time” measurement is suspended for all until Oct 21. And I say this as someone who always maxed those points...it’s stupid. 
 

In order to maintain the health and safety of the force as testing resumes, the abdominal circumference component will be temporarily suspended through Oct. 1, 2021 or until further notice. During this period, all Airmen will receive a temporary, one-year abdominal circumference component exemption, and the next scheduled test date will be based on the overall fitness score. This one-year temporary abdominal circumference exemption will take precedence over any other shorter term temporary abdominal circumference exemptions.

https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2195964/fitness-testing-suspended-until-oct-1/

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10 minutes ago, nsplayr said:

Also the “waste of time” measurement is suspended for all until Oct 21. And I say this as someone who always maxed those points...it’s stupid. 
 

In order to maintain the health and safety of the force as testing resumes, the abdominal circumference component will be temporarily suspended through Oct. 1, 2021 or until further notice. During this period, all Airmen will receive a temporary, one-year abdominal circumference component exemption, and the next scheduled test date will be based on the overall fitness score. This one-year temporary abdominal circumference exemption will take precedence over any other shorter term temporary abdominal circumference exemptions.

https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2195964/fitness-testing-suspended-until-oct-1/

To be honest, I'm not really sure why to any of this. A gym isn't necessary to pass the PT test or to eat less. Of all the hills the bobs let get run over, I am utterly shocked it was actually this one they let go. 

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1 hour ago, FLEA said:

To be honest, I'm not really sure why to any of this. A gym isn't necessary to pass the PT test or to eat less. Of all the hills the bobs let get run over, I am utterly shocked it was actually this one they let go. 

I think because especially for the waist measurement and sit-ups, people are typically or necessarily all up on each other.

I’ll say this though, COVID has destroyed more queep than any other entity, friend or foe, in the history of the US military. And for that I’m thankful. #SilverLinings

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, FLEA said:

To be honest, I'm not really sure why to any of this. A gym isn't necessary to pass the PT test or to eat less. Of all the hills the bobs let get run over, I am utterly shocked it was actually this one they let go. 

There's a ton of concern with the waist measurement because Airmen were going through such extreme measures in order to pass that a few actually died last year (forget the actual number, but it was >5).  Apparently all of the parlor tricks used beyond diet and exercise proved fatal for some.  Plus, the trend of laxing standards seems to be in full swing this year. 

Edited by war007afa
Too much tongue in cheek.

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11 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Also the “waste of time” measurement is suspended for all until Oct 21. And I say this as someone who always maxed those points...it’s stupid. 
 

In order to maintain the health and safety of the force as testing resumes, the abdominal circumference component will be temporarily suspended through Oct. 1, 2021 or until further notice. During this period, all Airmen will receive a temporary, one-year abdominal circumference component exemption, and the next scheduled test date will be based on the overall fitness score. This one-year temporary abdominal circumference exemption will take precedence over any other shorter term temporary abdominal circumference exemptions.

https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2195964/fitness-testing-suspended-until-oct-1/

"Next scheduled test date will be based on the overall fitness score".

Does that mean it's not automatically six months for an exemption if you score over a 90?

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4 hours ago, war007afa said:

There's a ton of concern with the waist measurement because Airmen were going through such extreme measures in order to pass that a few actually died last year (forget the actual number, but it was >5).  Apparently all of the parlor tricks used beyond diet and exercise proved fatal for some.  Plus, the trend of laxing standards seems to be in full swing this year. 

That makes more sense to me and I agree the parlor tricks were dangerous, especially if you already are in poor health. Hence why I think the AF needs a more holistic approach and they need to start looking at what airmen are eating versus emphasizing so much time at the gym. It's 95% diet. Stocking the base's food courts with Anthony's Pizza, Charley's Grilled Subs and Pizza Hut no doubt contributes to this. And out health education in youngsters is abysmal Nationwide. Ill get off my soap box now. 

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2 hours ago, FLEA said:

That makes more sense to me and I agree the parlor tricks were dangerous, especially if you already are in poor health. Hence why I think the AF needs a more holistic approach and they need to start looking at what airmen are eating versus emphasizing so much time at the gym. It's 95% diet. Stocking the base's food courts with Anthony's Pizza, Charley's Grilled Subs and Pizza Hut no doubt contributes to this. And out health education in youngsters is abysmal Nationwide. Ill get off my soap box now. 

Don't you take my fast food away from me.  Go look at the DFAC there is the same shit there that airman snuffy eats. They just have to bring their own sugar free monster to go with the chicken tendies.

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1 hour ago, Orbit said:

Don't you take my fast food away from me.  Go look at the DFAC there is the same shit there that airman snuffy eats. They just have to bring their own sugar free monster to go with the chicken tendies.

Oh dude I hear ya. The DFAC is probably the worst culprit. The point is though, the Air Force continues to approach health from the POV that it's exercise centered when it's mostly not. It's diet centered. Until the AF realizes and addresses that problem it will not stop a waist line epidemic in the force. 

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Pandemic Blamed for Plane Crash

"The pilots of a Pakistan airliner that crashed last month were having a discussion about coronavirus while preparing for their first failed attempt to land, the country's aviation minister has said."

Interesting bits cherry-picked by me:

  • Crew continues COVID discussion, leading to this on final:
  • 10nm - Gear Down
  • 5nm - Gear Up
  • Engines make runway contact on their gear up attempt
  • "They dismissed warnings from air traffic controllers and 'started discussing corona again'"
  • Both engines fail during the Go Around
  • 1/2 mile short - no power - aircraft stops flying.

Some quotes:

'Corona was dominant over their mind. Their family was affected.'

'Several warnings and alerts such as over-speed, landing gear not down and ground proximity alerts, were disregarded,'

"He said: 'It was pointed out the pilots were busy talking about corona, and that they may have overlooked a few things.'"

"...there was no technical fault, and that the pilots were not 'focused" because of the pandemic.'"

https://news.sky.com/story/pilots-in-pakistan-plane-crash-were-distracted-by-coronavirus-worries-minister-says-12014041

 

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I think that might belong in the WTF thread. 

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All deaths on board will be recorded as Covid deaths.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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