Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[uhhello]

2 minutes ago, Sim said:

Ukrainian Su-27 by SAM (blue on blue). No survivors.  

Lots and lots of debate on who shot it down.  

[Prozac]

13 minutes ago, FLEA said:

That said, everything you said is a loss for us, not a win. Personally I prefer a world where conflict is deescalating. Restarting the Cold War isn't my idea of a strategic victory. It could be Putin's though.

Agree on this point. Lose/lose for all involved. Again, not the mark of smart or good leadership. Smart leaders look for the win/win. Understanding one’s adversary does not necessarily mean accommodating them. 

[hockeydork]

10 minutes ago, Sim said:

Ukrainian Su-27 by SAM (blue on blue). No survivors.  

Rest in peace, ing heros.

[DirkDiggler]

8 minutes ago, uhhello said:

Almost 1800 arrests country wide.  We'll see how long the protest will persists. 

It’s pretty unusual for Russia.  Russia’s security services are unfortunately brutally efficient in suppressing that sort of thing though so not holding out hope that it’ll force any course corrections on Putin’s part.

[Best-22]

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed pre-dawn fires just in time for daylight offensives? It wasnt what i was expecting, does anyone know enough about russian doctrine to say why that is? 

Are NVG/NODs less available to Russian units? Any other reason why they might be less comfortable than the US fighting at night? 

Or am I just way off and they actually are doing the bulk of their advance under darkness?

 

OPSEC permitting in your replies of course 

[Best-22]

Also, I'm seeing reporting that they have only committed 1/3 of the BTGs that were assembled at the border. If true, it seems they didn't learn from our experience in Vietnam; that once committed to military action it should be 100% effort and not an incremental ramping up of pressure.

It seems Russia has likely failed its day 1/2 objectives and its slower than they'd like. 

I'm seeing parallels but this time we are on the other side and I'm hoping Ukraine can capitalize on it while the west continues to support logistically. Too early to draw any meaningful conclusions though IMO. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by Best-22

[fire4effect]

The lessons learned from this on combined arms operations will be staggering. So many systems/TTPs tested in a real world combat environment. For instance I'll be interested in how many aerial kills were A-A vs surface based systems. Clearly more lessons on preventing fratricide. As for the Javelin I can't think of a more realistic test than against a large, massed armored force.  Plenty of subjects to write on for Air War College and Command and General Staff College for years to come.

Now my biggest fear is Putin seeing himself getting bogged down in a slog in Ukraine and the protests really start getting going back in Russia and he starts becoming unhinged at the thought of losing his grip on power. If Hitler in April 1945 had access to the nuclear button what would have happened? I sure hope he isn't that crazy.

[Sua Sponte]

 

[DirkDiggler]

3 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

 

Hope it’s true and I hope the Ukrainians continue putting as many of these Russian pigs into the dirt as they possibly can.

[ecugringo]

There was an article I saw on MSN or somewhere how the Russians were being forced into this and they had mobile incinerators to cremate their dead on site to hide the true # of KIA.  Crazy to think about. 

[Prozac]

6 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

 

Holy shit! I realize this is one side of the story but if Russia lost anywhere near 80 MBTs in a 48hr period (against a supposedly far inferior force) that is astonishing. Makes one wonder if we’re witnessing the end of the tank as an effective battlefield weapon when confronted by infantry equipped with modern anti-tank weaponry. 

[Sim]

1 minute ago, Prozac said:

Makes one wonder if we’re witnessing the end of the tank as an effective battlefield weapon when confronted by infantry equipped with modern anti-tank weaponry. 

What you're witnessing is obvious disinformation by Ukrainian MoD. They've done same in 2014. I would not trust anything unless there is a video+picture footage.  

[Prozac]

9 minutes ago, Sim said:

What you're witnessing is obvious disinformation by Ukrainian MoD. They've done same in 2014. I would not trust anything unless there is a video+picture footage.  

You may be right. But by all accounts the Ukrainians have been making things far more difficult for the Russians than expected. The post conflict analysis will be a treasure trove as others have mentioned. 

[uhhello]

10 minutes ago, Sim said:

What you're witnessing is obvious disinformation by Ukrainian MoD. They've done same in 2014. I would not trust anything unless there is a video+picture footage.  

Baghdad bob style.  Don't blame em.  Gotta keep the citizen soldiers jacked up.  

[Guardian]

Prozac. Who is fondling Putins balls by discussing what is being done by both sides? Did anyone agree with him or praise him or advocate for him?

Just curious where your emotions are coming from that shut down debate from those you disagree with.

[FLEA]

22 minutes ago, Sim said:

What you're witnessing is obvious disinformation by Ukrainian MoD. They've done same in 2014. I would not trust anything unless there is a video+picture footage.  

Even then, I'm skeptical of the Su-27 shooting down a Su-35 video. 

[StoleIt]

1 hour ago, Prozac said:

 And while I agree that cutting Russia off from Swift should’ve happened yesterday, other measures taken are not trivial. Most importantly, NordStream II has been shelved and the Europeans are actively discussing how to wean themselves off Russian energy long term. 

Except we aren't talking about sanctioning/halting Russian energy exports. Sure, maybe Germany is putting a "pause" on it's pipeline...but it's just a pause. And our actions are none-existent for probably the worst reason...political. Biden knows his popularity would tank even more if gas prices went up higher (justifiably). So, instead, for domestic political points he avoiding really putting a rear naked choke on the Russians:

Quote

The US view of the necessity of keeping European allies on board, combined with a desire to mitigate domestic economic pain, drove the calculated decision not to directly target Russia's economic driver -- its energy sector, where EU countries were likely to oppose harsh sanctions. As a result, the bulk of Putin's exports and revenues remain in place, even as every other sector of the Russian economy is likely to come under new, and in some cases acute, strain.

Targeting Russia's energy sector also could have had an impact on US energy and gas prices because it could have driven worldwide energy markets upward.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/24/politics/biden-sanctions-russia-ukraine/index.html

I'd be willing to bet there are no long term US/Western sanctions against Russia (at least crippling ones) and Putin is betting on that COA as well. Temporary pain now for Putin, but he will still be supplying the LNG to Europe for decades while enjoying the view from his new loft apartment in Kyiv. And cutting out of Swift won't happen because everyone still needs to pay for that Russian LNG.

[Sim]

3 minutes ago, FLEA said:

Even then, I'm skeptical of the Su-27 shooting down a Su-35 video. 

As well as you should. It's a fake video using DCS World simulation. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by Sim

[DirkDiggler]

1 hour ago, Best-22 said:

Also, I'm seeing reporting that they have only committed 1/3 of the BTGs that were assembled at the border. If true, it seems they didn't learn from our experience in Vietnam; that once committed to military action it should be 100% effort and not an incremental ramping up of pressure.

It seems Russia has likely failed its day 1/2 objectives and its slower than they'd like. 

I'm seeing parallels but this time we are on the other side and I'm hoping Ukraine can capitalize on it while the west continues to support logistically. Too early to draw any meaningful conclusions though IMO. 

Caveat: Speculating.

  There’s only so many roads that support the Russian axis of advance.  I haven’t seen any videos showing Russian BTGs charging across the steppes WWII style (maybe they’re doing so, just haven’t seen it personally).  You can only cram so many units on to  limited LOCs; further, a lot of the roads outside the major cities are in poor condition and armored vehicles tear the shit out of pavement.

  Perhaps more importantly, you can only push forward the combat power you can logistically sustain.  Trucks need to use roads and are vulnerable to ambush/require security, helicopter sustainment is vulnerable to MANPADs and can’t move enough to keep large armored units in the fight.  I don’t believe the Russian AF has a large tactical airlift (airdrop) capability.  My guess is the Russians are overall limited by their ability to sustain their forward combat power.

[arg]

He does not look well compared to other vids I've seen.

 

[brickhistory]

When you might lose your F1 ride because your dad's friend starts a war:

https://www.espn.com/f1/story/_/id/33368180/haas-decide-nikita-mazepin-uralkali-next-week

[ClearedHot]

2 hours ago, Prozac said:

Holy shit! I realize this is one side of the story but if Russia lost anywhere near 80 MBTs in a 48hr period (against a supposedly far inferior force) that is astonishing. Makes one wonder if we’re witnessing the end of the tank as an effective battlefield weapon when confronted by infantry equipped with modern anti-tank weaponry. 

Javelin, the great armor equalizer.

 

3 hours ago, uhhello said:

Almost 1800 arrests country wide.  We'll see how long the protest will persists. 

Folks protesting Russia everywhere.

 

[Bigred]

2 hours ago, DirkDiggler said:

Caveat: Speculating.

  There’s only so many roads that support the Russian axis of advance.  I haven’t seen any videos showing Russian BTGs charging across the steppes WWII style (maybe they’re doing so, just haven’t seen it personally).  You can only cram so many units on to  limited LOCs; further, a lot of the roads outside the major cities are in poor condition and armored vehicles tear the shit out of pavement.

  Perhaps more importantly, you can only push forward the combat power you can logistically sustain.  Trucks need to use roads and are vulnerable to ambush/require security, helicopter sustainment is vulnerable to MANPADs and can’t move enough to keep large armored units in the fight.  I don’t believe the Russian AF has a large tactical airlift (airdrop) capability.  My guess is the Russians are overall limited by their ability to sustain their forward combat power.

The Russians didn’t modernize their logistics train in the past 20 years. C4I, combat systems, etc, sure, but they are using old trucks and old equipment to move said combat systems. It’s a recipe for disaster.
 

Logistics is what makes war. Without it, the Russians have hamstrung themselves. In my layman’s view, they only have enough beans and bullets for a few weeks. If the numbers coming out from the Ukrainian side are accurate, the Russians may be in for a helluva lot more of a fight, and sustaining said fight, than they may have bargained for. 

[VMFA187]

3 hours ago, Best-22 said:

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed pre-dawn fires just in time for daylight offensives? It wasnt what i was expecting, does anyone know enough about russian doctrine to say why that is? 

Are NVG/NODs less available to Russian units? Any other reason why they might be less comfortable than the US fighting at night? 

Or am I just way off and they actually are doing the bulk of their advance under darkness?

 

OPSEC permitting in your replies of course 

No one is comfortable fighting at night. We're just forced to train to it more, which is obviously beneficial. 

[Lawman]

No one is comfortable fighting at night. We're just forced to train to it more, which is obviously beneficial. 

We also have image intensification and FLIR in way more abundance than they do.

Conversely the Russians equip small ground units with ECM and Radar equipment.

It does however give me some hope in a LSCO type scenario that one of the two Big Bad’s has demonstrated little in the ability to maneuver in the dark. Conduct fire support operations sure, but if there is an entire portion of the day that they find themselves readily fixed in their combat cycle, that’s a huge advantage to us who can conduct maneuver in the dark.


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