Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[kaputt]

12 hours ago, DirkDiggler said:

Probably belongs in the WTF thread…

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/04/04/former-air-national-guardsman-facing-child-porn-charges-may-have-defected-russian-military.html?amp

What’s in the water in New England? Homeboy that leaked TS to his gamer friends, fire man, hunger strike guy, and now this clown are all from there. 

[gearhog]

Wait a sec. WTF?

Kurt Campbell, US Deputy Secretary of State says Russia has completely reconstituted its military.

We spend over a hundred billion dollars to weaken the Russian military, and this dude says it has had no effect.

Starts at 29:50

 

[Biff_T]

14 hours ago, DirkDiggler said:

Probably belongs in the WTF thread…

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/04/04/former-air-national-guardsman-facing-child-porn-charges-may-have-defected-russian-military.html?amp

Good.  Hope he ends up on the wrong end of a $75 drone (with a hand grenade taped to it).  

 

[uhhello]

1 hour ago, gearhog said:

Wait a sec. WTF?

Kurt Campbell, US Deputy Secretary of State says Russia has completely reconstituted its military.

We spend over a hundred billion dollars to weaken the Russian military, and this dude says it has had no effect.

Starts at 29:50

 

Needs a big more in depth review.  Lots of twitter feeds showing the 'reconstitution' involves bottom of the barrel conscripts and mechanized units turned in to rifle units.  A lot of the mechanized units are being backfilled not with armor but with light utility vehicles.   

[gearhog]

56 minutes ago, uhhello said:

Needs a big more in depth review.  Lots of twitter feeds showing the 'reconstitution' involves bottom of the barrel conscripts and mechanized units turned in to rifle units.  A lot of the mechanized units are being backfilled not with armor but with light utility vehicles.   

Good point. DoS officials should be checking with the Twitter Feed Verification Department before making such wild claims.

[FourFans]

On 4/4/2024 at 1:23 PM, DirkDiggler said:

Highly recommend getting in the SCIF for additional information on this, there’s multiple reasons you’ve heard very little open source.

Dammit.  I retired last year!

[Lord Ratner]

4 hours ago, gearhog said:

Wait a sec. WTF?

Kurt Campbell, US Deputy Secretary of State says Russia has completely reconstituted its military.

We spend over a hundred billion dollars to weaken the Russian military, and this dude says it has had no effect.

Starts at 29:50

 

If something is too sensational to be true, it's probably not true.

 

[Lawman]

If something is too sensational to be true, it's probably not true.
 

State is probably also not the department of government I’d go looking for in depth intelligence on understanding combat power.

Be like asking the TSA how to do counter intelligence ops.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Danger41]

1 hour ago, Lawman said:

State is probably also not the department of government I’d go looking for in depth intelligence on understanding combat power.

Be like asking the TSA how to do counter intelligence ops.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'd say alot of things TSA does are counter to intelligence. 

 

[uhhello]

5 hours ago, gearhog said:

Good point. DoS officials should be checking with the Twitter Feed Verification Department before making such wild claims.

Hah.  Sure.  It's pretty heavily documented by open source imagery.  Where do you think they are magically getting all this modern equipment?  There couldn't possibly be any motive for saying Russia is at the same state they were pre-war?  

Edited April 6, 2024 by uhhello

[DirkDiggler]

6 hours ago, Biff_T said:

Good.  Hope he ends up on the wrong end of a $75 drone (with a hand grenade taped to it).  

 

Agreed

[DirkDiggler]

9 hours ago, kaputt said:

What’s in the water in New England? Homeboy that leaked TS to his gamer friends, fire man, hunger strike guy, and now this clown are all from there. 

It’s real strange, that’s for sure.

[Lawman]

Hah.  Sure.  It's pretty heavily documented by open source imagery.  Where do you think they are magically getting all this modern equipment?  There couldn't possibly be any motive for saying Russia is at the same state they were pre-war?  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/14/russia-sent-70-year-old-t-55-tanks-to-ukraine-without-even-upgrading-them/?sh=41432a5534d2

Surely the only reason they would be doing crap like this is they want to do it… It wouldn’t possibly demonstrate they are consuming their best equipment faster than they can replace it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[uhhello]

 

[gearhog]

[ClearedHot]

Kiev claiming they shot down a TU-22M3, Russia says it was mechanical failure.  Regradless, they have taken some big losses on the air side.  Ukraine did heavily damage another TU-22M3 in a drone strike (bottom picture - note the used tire revetment).  That is a big hunk of aluminum falling down.

[BashiChuni]

i'm seeing a familiar trend of the west focusing on small tactical victories and missing the major strategic loss. great they shot down a bomber.

but that won't prevent them from losing the war.

it's amazing that such professionally educated officers can't grasp ukraine is losing. badly. and they have zero chance of beating russia.

[Lord Ratner]

1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:

i'm seeing a familiar trend of the west focusing on small tactical victories and missing the major strategic loss. great they shot down a bomber.

but that won't prevent them from losing the war.

it's amazing that such professionally educated officers can't grasp ukraine is losing. badly. and they have zero chance of beating russia.

This is an ironic thing to say considering they have been starved of the weaponry required to fight. If I were a bit more cynical I would say you are being intentionally disingenuous.

 

We shouldn't be sending them money or weapons!

*We stop sending them money and weapons.*

See!? They are losing, so there's no point in sending the money or weaponry!

[BashiChuni]

51 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

This is an ironic thing to say considering they have been starved of the weaponry required to fight. If I were a bit more cynical I would say you are being intentionally disingenuous.

 

We shouldn't be sending them money or weapons!

*We stop sending them money and weapons.*

See!? They are losing, so there's no point in sending the money or weaponry!

they have not been starved of the weaponry.

you could give ukraine 600b and it wouldn't matter. it's a numbers game. russia has far more men to fight ukraine.

and the russian industrial base is ramping up to full speed. russian army is 15% larger now than when the war began. some of you guys need to brush up on your history about how the russian bear conducts war.

let me repeat: there is ZERO chance ukraine will win this war. it's a losing proposition. what we SHOULD be doing is working towards a negotiated settlement.

Edited April 19, 2024 by BashiChuni

[HeloDude]

53 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

This is an ironic thing to say considering they have been starved of the weaponry required to fight. If I were a bit more cynical I would say you are being intentionally disingenuous.

 

We shouldn't be sending them money or weapons!

*We stop sending them money and weapons.*

See!? They are losing, so there's no point in sending the money or weaponry!

“Starved of the weaponry”?  Is Ukraine trying to produce their own weapons that the rest of the world is keeping them from producing?  Or is Ukraine trying to purchase weapons from the rest of the world, with the rest of the world saying they will not sell?  
 

This is the same argument I’ve heard that goes something like this:  “If you stop giving welfare to X people then you’re starving them”.  

[ClearedHot]

36 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

“Starved of the weaponry”?  Is Ukraine trying to produce their own weapons that the rest of the world is keeping them from producing?  Or is Ukraine trying to purchase weapons from the rest of the world, with the rest of the world saying they will not sell?  
 

This is the same argument I’ve heard that goes something like this:  “If you stop giving welfare to X people then you’re starving them”.  

The you have to teach them how to fish...It is not like they know how to make the Javelin, ATACM, and M-1 Abrams...and maybe in the long run you don't want them to know how.

[BashiChuni]

24 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

The you have to teach them how to fish...It is not like they know how to make the Javelin, ATACM, and M-1 Abrams...and maybe in the long run you don't want them to know how.

CH you're a reasonable poster on here.

do you honestly think ukraine could defeat russia on the battlefield with unlimited weaponry?

[Lord Ratner]

1 hour ago, BashiChuni said:

they have not been starved of the weaponry.

you could give ukraine 600b and it wouldn't matter. it's a numbers game. russia has far more men to fight ukraine.

and the russian industrial base is ramping up to full speed. russian army is 15% larger now than when the war began. some of you guys need to brush up on your history about how the russian bear conducts war.

let me repeat: there is ZERO chance ukraine will win this war. it's a losing proposition. what we SHOULD be doing is working towards a negotiated settlement.

Sure they have. Artillery is how this war is being fought, and they are out of shells. We are the resupply. Obviously there's a debate over whether we should, but we made Ukraine our proxy in this war, and now we are withholding. 

I've said it many, many times before, I don't care what their odds are if they want to fight. And for now, they still do. So arm them up. 

I'm a big fan of the negotiated settlement, but neither Russia nor Ukraine seems interested at the moment. And Russia will not be interested until we resupply Ukraine, at which point they may find a newfound interest in peace. 

 

Actually that's another paradox in your reasoning. We should be negotiating a settlement, but not give any motivation to Russia to settle.

[ClearedHot]

2 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

CH you're a reasonable poster on here.

Many would disagree.

8 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

do you honestly think ukraine could defeat russia on the battlefield with unlimited weaponry?

Judging by the damage inflicted with limited resources AND the semi-paper Tiger Russia appears to be, yes absolutely.

In some ways they have defeated Russia, Ukraine remains as a country two years after being attacked by a Super-Power. 

But, as always in conflict, you have to define what defeat (victory), means. 

Our feckless politicians have let a very tired Ukrainian Army suffer in the field much like the Continental Army did at Valley Forge.  If they had more resources earlier this would be a very different conflict.  Russia has been rebuilding and without our help and equipment, the Spring offensive could be very bad for Ukraine.

[Lord Ratner]

1 hour ago, HeloDude said:

“Starved of the weaponry”?  Is Ukraine trying to produce their own weapons that the rest of the world is keeping them from producing?  Or is Ukraine trying to purchase weapons from the rest of the world, with the rest of the world saying they will not sell?  
 

This is the same argument I’ve heard that goes something like this:  “If you stop giving welfare to X people then you’re starving them”.  

If you establish that you are going to feed someone, then stop feeding them without sufficient time or opportunity to feed themselves, then yes, you are starving them. You can argue whether you should have fed them in the first place, but once you establish a relationship, what you do in that relationship matters. 

 

We could have let them fend for themselves from the beginning, but we didn't. Maybe we should have, though I disagree. Doesn't matter, we did. And you now have to operate from that reality. 

 

For everyone calling for a negotiated settlement, that's not going to happen unless Russia has something to lose by refusing. And that's not going to happen without a re-armed Ukraine. I agree with all of the complaints about a feckless administration with no strategy and no goals. That's the hand we've been dealt. 

12 minutes ago, BashiChuni said:

do you honestly think ukraine could defeat russia on the battlefield with unlimited weaponry?

The North Vietnamese couldn't defeat us with unlimited weaponry. They didn't need to. This is unidimensional thinking.