WTF? (**NSFW**)

[HeloDude]

On 9/7/2023 at 11:32 AM, Lord Ratner said:

And overwhelmingly, all of this madness was brought to you by a federal reserve that decided that artificially-low interest rates would help government spending spur economic growth, and a congress that was all too happy to increase their spending ability through the roof, while telling the American people that it was actually good for the economy for the government to spend this way. Keynesian economics reaching it's only logical conclusion: collapse. 

 

Buckle up, kids. It's going to be an interesting decade or two. 

Appreciate the data.  My question is this:  When does all this start that it becomes obvious to a majority of Americans that we’re in trouble?  Predictions are great and all, but if the person making them can’t be fairly accurate with the timeline then the predictions are near useless…just take a look at the global warming/climate change nonsense predictions over the last 30+ years. 

[ViperMan]

32 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

Appreciate the data.  My question is this:  When does all this start that it becomes obvious to a majority of Americans that we’re in trouble?  Predictions are great and all, but if the person making them can’t be fairly accurate with the timeline then the predictions are near useless…just take a look at the global warming/climate change nonsense predictions over the last 30+ years. 

That process is beginning now, IMO, but there are many naysayers out there whose job is to spout rainbows and keep people in denial. Read a book called "The Coming Generational Storm." It points to the size of generations and how accounting needs to be internally balanced. The baby boom generation has written more checks than they can cash, now, smaller generations below them who are less productive are going to have to make up that productivity gap and pay those bills. This, combined with the flattening (redistribution) of productivity to many other parts of the world are going to lead to tougher economic conditions for those who don't have the means or wealth to support themselves and their families.

Current housing prices are probably the thing that is going to cause the most people to wake up - that they may never come down again, combined with flat wages, is going to mean many people must permanently work.

Edited September 11, 2023 by ViperMan

[HeloDude]

13 minutes ago, ViperMan said:

That process is beginning now, IMO, but there are many naysayers out there whose job is to spout rainbows and keep people in denial. Read a book called "The Coming Generational Storm." It points to the size of generations and how accounting needs to be internally balanced. The baby boom generation has written more checks than they can cash, now, smaller generations below them who are less productive are going to have to make up that productivity gap and pay those bills. This, combined with the flattening (redistribution) of productivity to many other parts of the world are going to lead to tougher economic conditions for those who don't have the means or wealth to support themselves and their families.

Current housing prices are probably the thing that is going to cause the most people to wake up - that they may never come down again, combined with flat wages, is going to mean many people must permanently work.

I don’t doubt that all the massive spending, policies/regulations making products more expensive, energy situation, etc is good. My question is when are we going to notice this massive economic downturn?  If you say now, then I would very much disagree.  While I don’t think the economy is good, we’re not in 2001 or 2008/2009 levels yet.  

[ViperMan]

2 hours ago, HeloDude said:

I don’t doubt that all the massive spending, policies/regulations making products more expensive, energy situation, etc is good. My question is when are we going to notice this massive economic downturn?  If you say now, then I would very much disagree.  While I don’t think the economy is good, we’re not in 2001 or 2008/2009 levels yet.  

This is where you just have to look.

Look at the housing market. Can you afford a new house? Can a working family afford a house almost anywhere in this country anymore? Look at the level of capital it take to purchase an asset now-a-days (i.e. something that's going to hold value).

The degradation has begun. If you need to see a "crash" to have the point proven to you, well you may wait for eternity. But I'll just point to the above fact again. We didn't need a crash to cause housing to be unaffordable, and yet if no one can afford a place to live, how is your QOL doing? If you define a downturn as stock prices crashing, then sure, maybe that's not going to happen, but if you can't buy a house to live and thus you have to work forever, then I'd say the crash was a stealth crash. It didn't look like what you were expecting, but the affect has been the same.

[HeloDude]

33 minutes ago, ViperMan said:

This is where you just have to look.

Look at the housing market. Can you afford a new house? Can a working family afford a house almost anywhere in this country anymore? Look at the level of capital it take to purchase an asset now-a-days (i.e. something that's going to hold value).

The degradation has begun. If you need to see a "crash" to have the point proven to you, well you may wait for eternity. But I'll just point to the above fact again. We didn't need a crash to cause housing to be unaffordable, and yet if no one can afford a place to live, how is your QOL doing? If you define a downturn as stock prices crashing, then sure, maybe that's not going to happen, but if you can't buy a house to live and thus you have to work forever, then I'd say the crash was a stealth crash. It didn't look like what you were expecting, but the affect has been the same.

If housing is (or going to soon be) so unaffordable that the vast majority of people won’t be able to afford one…or won’t be able to afford one without working until they’re near death/old age, then there has to be very large bad visible 2nd and 3rd order affects to the economy.  If you’re spending so much for housing, rent or mortgage, then you have less money to buy clothes, eat out, fix your car, buy a new cell phone, etc.  That means that these businesses will earn less, hire fewer people, and on and on.  All that most definitely affects the economy—and yes, it will then most definitely affect the stock market. 
 

So again, my question is when?  I’m not buying this “stealth crash”.  I think we’ll eventually see the signs I mentioned above…but again, when?

[ViperMan]

13 hours ago, HeloDude said:

If housing is (or going to soon be) so unaffordable that the vast majority of people won’t be able to afford one…or won’t be able to afford one without working until they’re near death/old age, then there has to be very large bad visible 2nd and 3rd order affects to the economy.  If you’re spending so much for housing, rent or mortgage, then you have less money to buy clothes, eat out, fix your car, buy a new cell phone, etc.  That means that these businesses will earn less, hire fewer people, and on and on.  All that most definitely affects the economy—and yes, it will then most definitely affect the stock market. 
 

So again, my question is when?  I’m not buying this “stealth crash”.  I think we’ll eventually see the signs I mentioned above…but again, when?

When is anybody's guess, and it's a fool's errand to try to predict crashes. I hear what you're saying re: offsetting effects through the rest of the economy, but there is a reason why your average asset has become so decoupled in price from other goods. For example, I can still buy a pretty decent car for $20K. That was true in 2000. I could buy an amazing home in 2000 for $500K. Now? Don't even think that'll get you a shack in certain areas. This decoupling is what I'm talking about. The money class figured out a way to inflate the price/cost of anything that can be used as a vehicle to pass on wealth and has pushed it out of reach for your average American - this is a humongous social problem in the offing.

So sure, don't buy the stealth crash. It was meant as a metaphorical way to simply describe what I've laid out above - which is that if you try to buy anything right now that is going to hold value indefinitely, you're out of luck. Americans have been split into two classes by the last 15-20 years of monetary policy. Or perhaps a better way to say it is where the "slice" between the classes cuts, has moved waaaaaaaaaaaay to the right. Not good.

Edited September 11, 2023 by ViperMan

[Lord Ratner]

21 hours ago, HeloDude said:

Appreciate the data.  My question is this:  When does all this start that it becomes obvious to a majority of Americans that we’re in trouble?  Predictions are great and all, but if the person making them can’t be fairly accurate with the timeline then the predictions are near useless…just take a look at the global warming/climate change nonsense predictions over the last 30+ years. 

Exact timing? Dunno. We are at a fork in the road between an asset-value-crash and reigniting inflation. I have no clue what the Fed picks, but I don't expect them to let the government go insolvent until they have no choice. That means a new tea-party wave of politicians replacing the entrenched incumbents and forcing the Fed to fix their mess. That too will take time. 

 

In the short term, they can't stop inflation and protect the government/stock market/investor class. These are now mutually exclusive interests. So if you want to invest in something, keep an eye on commodities. The government can't control the price of oil, copper, etc. 

 

But the safe answer right now is to shovel your money into short-term treasuries. No risk from rate-changes and a pretty good yield right now. Whatever you do, don't sit on cash right now. When the Fed starts cutting rates, move your money into something that will benefit from inflation. 

 

Fun Fact: Because the Fed has increased their balance sheet so spectacularly, the only way they are able to keep rates above ~0% is by directly paying the banks and money-market funds to not put their money into treasuries (which would push up the prices and lower the yields/rates). So as we speak, the Fed is paying the banks billions to sit on the reserves that the Fed forced them to take in the first place. If you don't think the system is rigged, your aren't paying attention. But I don't think this madness can go on for too long.

[arg]

 

Injured Grand Canyon hiker, 63, saved after friends abandoned him to continue backpacking

 

https://www.foxnews.com/us/injured-grand-canyon-hiker-63-saved-friends-abandoned-him-continue-backpacking

 

 

[VMFA187]

4 minutes ago, arg said:

 

Injured Grand Canyon hiker, 63, saved after friends abandoned him to continue backpacking

 

 

 

Pirate rules. You fall behind, you get left behind. 

[nunya]

That dude better be careful diming out his group. With friends like that, snitches get stitches.

[Smokin]

That group better be careful before that dude pulls a Hugh Glass on them. 

I first read the headlines and thought, no big deal.  If I'm hiking with a group of friends and twist my ankle in the canyon then sure, I'll sit on this rock for a few hours and you guys can pick me up on the way back out.  But walking away from a dude that needs a helicopter evac?  That's not cool.

[brabus]

Even if it was an “out and back” hike, you should never leave someone alone unless in an absolute live or die situation. Even just for a few hours. Technology/social media has driven so many idiots (or at least extremely naive) to have a false sense of backcountry capability/safety. Like the occasional tourist who looks at me sideways when they pass me with a pistol and bear spray on me. Yeah dumbass, there’s grizz everywhere and they will rapidly help you experience an excruciating death.

[Swizzle]

Had to research a project and find Army pubs. Opening the page found the ?quintessential Army experience? under the top downloaded forms and it gave me a good laugh...

1. I want to leave, take leave

2. You've been counseled

3. We're taking admin action against you

4. I have a new dependent to add to MilPDS

5. I need to borrow something

[Lawman]

Had to research a project and find Army pubs. Opening the page found the ?quintessential Army experience? under the top downloaded forms and it gave me a good laugh...
1. I want to leave, take leave
2. You've been counseled
3. We're taking admin action against you
4. I have a new dependent to add to MilPDS
5. I need to borrow something

That’s a pretty significant misunderstanding of what 4 of those forms actually do, but ok…

3. (personnel action) is used administratively for literally any change in your records (senior wings, change of unit within guidon, school application).




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[Swizzle]

8 hours ago, Lawman said:

That’s a pretty significant misunderstanding of what 4 of those forms actually do, but ok…

3. (personnel action) is used administratively for literally any change in your records (senior wings, change of unit within guidon, school application).




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Likely, but not as entertaining 

[M2]

 

[tac airlifter]

1 hour ago, M2 said:

 

 

 

[M2]

On 9/26/2023 at 6:43 PM, M2 said:

 

https://www.themirror.com/entertainment/celebrity-news/britney-spears-concerns-grow-star-119217?fbclid=IwAR1Wwb8U7hfGKXZGaSPU58LOMsMH7adVPsbtWLkT89ThwpQM6pZlIAZWIq4

🤣🤣🤣

[M2]

Her kimchi must be wrapped too tight!!  😬 😬 😬

https://twitter.com/jushendo/status/1707013616715575690?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1707013616715575690|twgr^|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=

[Biff_T]

3 hours ago, M2 said:

Her kimchi must be wrapped too tight!!  😬 😬 😬

https://twitter.com/jushendo/status/1707013616715575690?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1707013616715575690|twgr^|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=

Damn.. 

Where to start?

She's dripping wet lol.  Walmart and Biff do that to the crazy asian ladies lol.  

[pawnman]

3 hours ago, Biff_T said:

Damn.. 

Where to start?

She's dripping wet lol.  Walmart and Biff do that to the crazy asian ladies lol.  

Looks like a normal Tuesday at Walmart to me. 

[arg]

Thought that was the gate at Osan at midnight

[Sim]

 

 

I wonder what was his function in the Pentagon. 

 

[nunya]

38 minutes ago, Sim said:

I wonder what was his function in the Pentagon. 

https://www.linkedin.com/in/frederick-d-moorefield-jr-3b311612a/

"Deputy Chief Information Officer for C3 at DoD"

ETA: You'd think a CIO would know better than to leave an incriminating electronic paper trail leading directly to a guilty verdict.

Edited October 4, 2023 by nunya

[RASH]

https://www.linkedin.com/in/frederick-d-moorefield-jr-3b311612a/
"Deputy Chief Information Officer for C3 at DoD"
ETA: You'd think a CIO would know better than to leave an incriminating electronic paper trail leading directly to a guilty verdict.

“You can’t fix stupid”


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