When you’re talking about supplying a continent, transportation is absolutely a much bigger issue than production. The infrastructure for export on that scale by ship to Europe has never existed in the United States and likely will not ever exist, unless/until Russian and Middle Eastern oil cease to be available and/or oil prices rise, irreversibly, to a level that those multi-billion dollar investments make sense. You really can turn production off and on rapidly to respond to the market (think Midland/Odessa TX over the last 12 years). Cap the well, ship your leased equipment back to some about-to-be-bankrupt equipment yard, pay a guy to keep people away, and tell your contractors to go work at Home Depot. Everything will still be there when the prices rise again.
When you build ships and filling infrastructure for them you’d better be damn sure they’ll be useful and profitable in the long term. If they’re not working at or near capacity, they’re not paying for themselves; if there’s zero throughput, they’re expensive, broken monuments to optimism. We’re exporting primarily to Mexico and Canada not because they’re our best friends, but because there isn’t an ocean of costs (and risk) between producer and consumer.
For reference, US exports to the waterborne market have been hitting historic highs year over year for the past half decade, but there’s simply no way to “turn the spigot” to create that infrastructure. (Almost exclusively located on the gulf coast.) It’s reactive to the market, which doesn’t support hundreds of billions of dollars of overhead at current oil prices. US oil tends to be more expensive because of the extraction methods required for large portions of it (something at which we’re still truly world-beating), so expecting that infrastructure to materialize out of the kind hearts of corporations in the very short term would simply price US oil out of the market when Russia’s/(country x’s) pipelines turn on again and the market normalizes.
That said (and not saying this in response to anybody’s posts in particular), opposition to domestic pipelines is insane. The product is going to be sent. The nice thing about using pipes is that the product never derails and crashes through buildings or school busses. On the whole, way more environmentally and economically friendly. I’ve got pipes in my house. Work great.
The way we replace Russian oil in Europe… that’s a doosie. Break economics? It just isn’t going to happen until Russian oil becomes proportionally more expensive to extract than it is for us to ship. Or! Lay pipe across the Atlantic… no, guys, not the way aircrew usually do.