The Next President is...

[fire4effect]

You know as I stood in line to vote yesterday, I thought back to 2005 and Iraq's first election post Sadam. No armored vehicles surrounded my polling location, and I felt pretty sure a VBIED wasn't going to plow into the parking lot. What a country we have.

[disgruntledemployee]

2 hours ago, slc said:

Orange man slinging shitty food

You're so clever, good for you, Ace.

[BashiChuni]

username checks.

trump is gonna clean house...first step will be fixing the border disaster

[ViperMan]

1 hour ago, fire4effect said:

You know as I stood in line to vote yesterday...

Boomer.

[fire4effect]

42 minutes ago, ViperMan said:

Boomer.

Sooner

[ViperMan]

[arg]

There seems to be about 20m votes missing.

[ViperMan]

1 minute ago, arg said:

There seems to be about 20m votes missing.

Dude. For real on this.

I was NEVER a guy who doubted the previous election...NEVER. Ever.

Now, when I see a quarter of the votes missing from a previous parties' election it does raise questions.

What the fuck happened.

It's not a necessary conclusion that there was cheating, or even that cheating was the most likely occurrence. I'm not saying that. But, it is absolutely a WILD and INSANE outlier that should be studied and understood.

80M votes to 60M votes says something earth-shattering. Earth shattering.

[brabus]

I’m generally with you on that. But a plausible answer is not 20M were galvanized to vote in 2020, but weren’t in 2004/2008/2012/2016/2024. There is some significant nefarious bullshit that went on in 2020. I don’t know exactly what, but there’s a lot of reason to question those 20M votes, even using historical trend data alone.

Edited November 7, 2024 by brabus

[Boomer6]

Maybe 20M ppl refused to vote for either candidate, and if so hopefully that data will be used by both parties in the future.

[ViperMan]

You could (I would) say that I'm a "math inclined" person. A 30% deviation from the norm with large numbers like this is what you call a signal. It's not noise. There is 100% something there. What is it? I can't say. But there is a signal there.

[JimNtexas]

[Lord Ratner]

2 hours ago, ViperMan said:

You could (I would) say that I'm a "math inclined" person. A 30% deviation from the norm with large numbers like this is what you call a signal. It's not noise. There is 100% something there. What is it? I can't say. But there is a signal there.

Trump lost by how many million last time, and won by how many this time? That swing accounts for a significant portion. Also the left went from defeating the literal devil in their minds, to supporting someone who had the charisma of a wet paper bag. That accounts for some more.

Further the overall turnout driven by the pandemic probably resulted in a lot of people who only voted because they were bored not voting this time around. 

 

I'm not saying it's not significant, but it's also not inexplicable.

[ViperMan]

21 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

Trump lost by how many million last time, and won by how many this time? That swing accounts for a significant portion. Also the left went from defeating the literal devil in their minds, to supporting someone who had the charisma of a wet paper bag. That accounts for some more.

Further the overall turnout driven by the pandemic probably resulted in a lot of people who only voted because they were bored not voting this time around. 

I'm not saying it's not significant, but it's also not inexplicable.

Pandemic turnout could be an interesting avenue to explore.

81,000,000 votes down to ~62,000,000 votes DOES NOT MAKE SENSE. That is inexplicable. It cannot be hand-waived. That is an unbelievable difference in voter turnout. You're talking 20,000,000 people showing up, and then not showing up.

That doesn't happen without a very clear reason. Period.

Edited November 7, 2024 by ViperMan

[gearhog]

3 hours ago, ViperMan said:

Pandemic turnout could be an interesting avenue to explore.

81,000,000 votes down to ~62,000,000 votes DOES NOT MAKE SENSE. That is inexplicable. It cannot be hand-waived. That is an unbelievable difference in voter turnout. You're talking 20,000,000 people showing up, and then not showing up.

That doesn't happen without a very clear reason. Period.

"Let's just get along and move forward" isn't going to happen. Trump has been prosecuted and ridiculed over his claims of a stolen election for four years. Is he the type of guy to shrug it off and focus on the future? He is going to turn the federal government inside out to resolve what happened in 2020. The biggest data destruction event in US history is going to take place in the next couple months. However, I believe there will be a lot of people that will retain evidence to protect themselves.

[nunya]

I think this is a large part of it.

(https://www.brookings.edu/articles/voting-by-mail-in-a-pandemic-a-state-by-state-scorecard/)

States were awarded higher grades on this graphic for "Voters automatically receive a ballot" and "Ballot does not require a witness signature." They were docked points for "Voters are required to provide a copy of photo ID for the mail application and/or ballot."

I see a lot of left leaning As and Bs and a lot of right leaning Fs and Ds.

2020 Electoral College for comparison

Edited November 7, 2024 by nunya

[Vito]

 I also find this 20 million number troubling. Good point about the Covid mail in ballots explaining part of this, but I would argue that during Covid, people were petrified to leave their homes, much less vote., especially Democrats, who seemed the most nervous about Covid.  I really find it incredulous that 20 million more votes were cast in 2020.. 

[tac airlifter]

9 hours ago, ViperMan said:

81,000,000 votes down to ~62,000,000 votes DOES NOT MAKE SENSE. That is inexplicable.
That doesn't happen without a very clear reason. Period.

It's anomalous in national politics, and definitely bears exploring.  The only thing known for certain: it can't be fraud.  Biden was the most popular POTUS in our history and the election process is airtight.  

[FourFans]

Just gunna leave this helpful link for all those who made claims about what they'd do if Trump was elected.

[disgruntledemployee]

Maybe a few mil didn't vote for either Trump or Harris, and none of the listed alternatives, like me, but i can't see 20M going that.  Or maybe 20mil thought we're fucked either way and didn't bother.  That, I can understand. 

So, yes, it is a big signal.

[ClearedHot]

One of the most telling images of the evening.

Break Break....WTF is up with Arizona and Nevada, still counting votes 2.5 days later (Arizona is still at 69%), Florida counted all their votes in 2.5 hours.

 

[Smokin]

This is contrary to much of the 'get out the vote' movements, but I personally think a low voter turnout is not inherently a bad thing.  The level of ignorance of many voters is absolutely shocking.  If you don't take the time to become informed enough to make a reasonable decision, then you shouldn't vote.

I also agree that many voters were likely completely uninspired by either option and simply decided it wasn't worth their time if a ballot didn't magically show up in their mailbox unrequested.

[Pooter]

If you look further back Kamala’s turnout numbers aren’t the anomaly, they’re a reversion to the mean. Hillary got 65M in 2016 and kamala got 68M this year. This just shows how much of an anomaly 2020 was. With the George Floyd riots and covid bringing out tons of low propensity voters and TDS at its peak, 2020 was always going to be a record year for Dems. 
 

20M is a crazy number but it just shows how insane the country was at that point. Everything felt like it was on a knifes edge

[Vito]

Poster write,

“ With the George Floyd riots and covid bringing out tonsof low propensity voters and TDS at its peak”

 

  That’s kind of my point, were George Floyd BLM rioters and anarchists really that much more motivated to vote, and how many Rioters were there really? Add to this the absolute Hysteria that gripped the largely Democrat ranks, I find it incredulous that Covid, mail in ballots, or motivation to leave a safe home and vote during a pandemic that still scares most democrats today, would account for 20 MILLION EXTRA VOTES. A FEW MILLION, MAYBE BUT NOT 20,000,000. I’d love for some whistleblower to surface.

Edited November 7, 2024 by Vito

[SocialD]

It's more like 20M not showing up, 20M showing up, then 20M not showing up again.  Not sure if anyone is looking into the data to see why the turnout was so high in 2020, but I'm sure it would be a great story for someone willing to nerd out in the data.