Saddle up for Syria? Or Op Deny Christmas '13

[Clark Griswold]

Depressing to see Kerry today begin to the process of painting us into a corner there is almost no out now to not conducting a strike.

Good brief description of the Syrian Air Order of Battle, here, and the Syrian Ground Order of Battle, here.

I still think intervention is a heads they win tails we lose scenario but playing armchair general, if we (hopefully with a sizable and unconstrained ROE coalition of allies) do intervene, a strategy could be:

- give the "rebels" a sanctuary from which to operate

- establish at least over the sanctuary a Defensive CAP and counter artillery batteries

- impose an air, sea and land blockade to try to dry up what weapons the government does have

- pick out of 10+ factions that compose the Free Syrian Army the least evil, arm-train-fund them better than their rivals to begin to form a cohesive leadership

- disrupt communications into and out of Syria to further isolate the regime: no Internet, no Sat phones, no mobile phones, no electronic commerce, etc...

- disrupt banking to further erode Syrian currency

all of this is something I think we should not do but if you're going play, play to win

[JS]

Im going to go ahead and repost this, just in case someone missed it the first time.

http://www.amazon.co...ican+militarism

Wow. Phenomenal book. And I don't just mean a book that was fun to read or just exciting; this was one of only 2 or 3 books that I have read in the past decade or so that really made me think and has changed the way I view the US, war, and the global political/economic/military system.

My liberal-ass brother made me read this back in 2006 or 2007, a little after it first came out. At first I thought it was easy to write off some of his stuff like when he talks about Rambo and Top Gun having a huge influence on American culture, but then I thought it through and he makes great points. This is one of the few books that I consistently recommend to others and consistently bring up in late night philosophical (read: post beer or scotch) discussions about why we have such a war-like culture.

On a sad note, I believe his son, an Army Lt, was killed in Iraq around the 2007 or 2008 time frame a few years after this was published. And as a former Army officer himself, it's difficult to write Bacevich off as a liberal freak with no skin in the game considering his family's military heritage.

Slight side track, my dad brought up an interesting point that I never really considered before. We've been at war for roughly 12 years. How much intel do you think our "enemies" have collected on us? Granted, the way we are currently fighting in Afghanistan and to a certain extent were fighting in Iraq are not the way we are going to fight say China, Russia, N.Korea, etc...but they have probably picked up a lot of info on the way we do business.

Yeah, that has been brought up before in circles. I read a few articles a while back - during the heat of the Iraq War when Afghanistan was building up. There were a few articles in the NY Times, I believe, where they talked about this very topic. The enemy has indeed learned a lot about the way we wage war and out TTPs. I think I even read about how the Chinese would have people in OIF/OEF land sniffing radio and electronic information to gain a better understanding of communications, codes, logistics, etc.

The good news is that we also gained a ton of experience that can't be had by simply watching a war from the sidelines.

I think in the end, what we have learned and the experiences our guys have outweighs the cost of revealing part of our hand to our real, potential future enemies.

[Slander]

The good news is that we also gained will ignore a ton of experience that can't be had by simply watching a war waging 24 6-months wars from the sidelines.

[Fuzz]

Depressing to see Kerry today begin to the process of painting us into a corner there is almost no out now to not conducting a strike.

Good brief description of the Syrian Air Order of Battle, here, and the Syrian Ground Order of Battle, here.

I still think intervention is a heads they win tails we lose scenario but playing armchair general, if we (hopefully with a sizable and unconstrained ROE coalition of allies) do intervene, a strategy could be:

- give the "rebels" a sanctuary from which to operate

- establish at least over the sanctuary a Defensive CAP and counter artillery batteries

- impose an air, sea and land blockade to try to dry up what weapons the government does have

- pick out of 10+ factions that compose the Free Syrian Army the least evil, arm-train-fund them better than their rivals to begin to form a cohesive leadership

- disrupt communications into and out of Syria to further isolate the regime: no Internet, no Sat phones, no mobile phones, no electronic commerce, etc...

- disrupt banking to further erode Syrian currency

all of this is something I think we should not do but if you're going play, play to win

A) we'll never have another unconstrsined REO as long as the politicians are the ones advocating for the kinetic action. B) there are no Syrian rebel groups left they were run out of town and disarmed by the islamic militant groups.

[JS]

True. And then we will force out the most experienced warriors in favor of keeping leadership/queepy fucks who have their focus on Master's degrees and fundraisers.

[egochecks]

"<a href="http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/obamas-bluff">Obama's Bluff</a> is republished with permission of Stratfor."

[waveshaper]

The U.S., British, and French will shortly announce the name of the pending Joint Operation against the Syrian government forces. There are no rumor of what this joint operation will be called at this time. Key administration official did release the name of the designated theme tune for this Joint Operation. The theme tune that was selected is; The Three Stooges, which according to key administration officials is both patriotic and historical. The same officials cautioned older Americans and children to not confuse the Three Stooges theme tune with the Three Blind Mice tune. The Three Blind Mice tune was determined to be unpatriotic and it also has connections to Islamic fundamentalism that can be traced back over a millennium.

[Snooter]

Welp add another hfp/hdp location to the list. Or is that going to be another victim of sequestration?

[Alpharatz]

The U.S., British, and French will shortly announce the name of the pending Joint Operation against the Syrian government forces. There are no rumor of what this joint operation will be called at this time. Key administration official did release the name of the designated theme tune for this Joint Operation. The theme tune that was selected is; The Three Stooges, which according to key administration officials is both patriotic and historical. The same officials cautioned older Americans and children to not confuse the Three Stooges theme tune with the Three Blind Mice tune. The Three Blind Mice tune was determined to be unpatriotic and it also has connections to Islamic fundamentalism that can be traced back over a millennium.

Some U.S. Senator probably gets a little baksheesh on the royalty from "The Three Stooges"

............................................Yikes!!! watch out for that pineapple..................

[Clark Griswold]

A) we'll never have another unconstrsined REO as long as the politicians are the ones advocating for the kinetic action. B) there are no Syrian rebel groups left they were run out of town and disarmed by the islamic militant groups.

A) ROE not REO

B) There is someone to work with, the Syrian Military Council, full description here

The Free Syrian Army

by Elizabeth O'Bagy

Executive Summary

The SMC has the potential to serve as a check on radicalization and help to assert a moderate authority in Syria. If the SMC can create enough incentives for moderation it will likely be able to marginalize the most radical elements within its structure. To this end, the SMC has recognized the importance of the inclusion of some of the more radical forces, while still drawing a red line at the inclusion of forces that seek the destruction of a Syrian state, such as jihadist groups like Jabhat Nusra. - See more at: http://www.understandingwar.org/report/free-syrian-army#sthash.z4BIxJ9k.dpuf

Edited August 27, 2013 by Clark Griswold

[Toro]

Picture of deployed asset and responses removed. Here's a perfect summary of why:

Just because it's in the media doesn't mean it's not an OPSEC violation.

and another good point:

Which do you think lends more credibility to any speculation of what the jet is doing there? An italian journalist's airplane site or a known forum where operational USAF officers debate (and look at german chicks' cleavage)?

One last note - if something is questionable, use the "Report" button at the bottom of each post and it immediately sends a direct notification to the moderators with a link to the post. We don't read through all the threads, so it's very easy for this to get overlooked.

[waveshaper]

The bulk of evidence proving the Assad regime's deployment of chemical weapons – which would provide legal grounds essential to justify any western military action – may have been provided by Israeli military intelligence, the German magazine Focus has reported. If this is anyway true it could be a credibility problem for justifying military strikes. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/la-fg-wn-syria-israel-intelligence-chemical-attack-20130827,0,3332576.story

[ForgotPassword]

Apologies!

[Champ Kind]

So you mean it's not a "slam dunk"?

[waveshaper]

So you mean it's not a "slam dunk"?

I believe the Arab League might think this particular piece of Israeli bait that's being served up may stink just a bit.

[Prozac]

I believe the Arab League might think this particular piece of Israeli bait that's being served up may stink just a bit.

Not all of it. The Saudis, Qataris, and other Sunni states in the region would like nothing more than to see the Al Assad regime get schwacked.

[HeloDude]

Not all of it. The Saudis, Qataris, and other Sunni states in the region would like nothing more than to see the Al Assad regime get schwacked.

I didn't see Jordan on that list of yours...

[StoleIt]

We currently have a dictator and radical Islamic terrorists killing each other...am I the only one who thinks this is the best foreign policy we have had in a couple decades?

[guineapigfury]

We currently have a dictator and radical Islamic terrorists killing each other...am I the only one who thinks this is the best foreign policy we have had in a couple decades?

I think we've done this before.

[Snooter]

We currently have a dictator and radical Islamic terrorists killing each other...am I the only one who thinks this is the best foreign policy we have had in a couple decades?

Problem is the civilians in the crossfire, other than that, carry on...

[brickhistory]

Problem is the civilians in the crossfire, other than that, carry on...

WHY is that our problem?

[Champ Kind]

civilians in the crossfire

So move...

[Snooter]

WHY is that our problem?

I never said it was our problem. But ask Joe civilian that is inundated with images of kids getting gassed on cnn if he thinks something should be done. Don't take it out of context, I want bad guys to kill bad guys just as much as you do.

[pcola]

"<a href="http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/obamas-bluff">Obama's Bluff</a> is republished with permission of Stratfor."

Stratfor publishes some very informative analyses. A Little tidbit of information...the AF actually provides all of us with a free Stratfor subscription. Log in to the portal and click on the "Library" tab. About 2/3 of the way down, on the right side, is a link to Stratfor. Free full access to their site.

Back to the topic at hand...

[DFRESH]

Stratfor publishes some very informative analyses. A Little tidbit of information...the AF actually provides all of us with a free Stratfor subscription. Log in to the portal and click on the "Library" tab. About 2/3 of the way down, on the right side, is a link to Stratfor. Free full access to their site. Back to the topic at hand...

Fuckin' A right cotton! That's awesome, thanks for the nugget's up.