Swizzle

Everyone will take closer note when the biggest pool of pilots by MAJCOM/core AFSC declines year over year 5-6%. The faster that pool declines into the red, the more attention and political support retention methods will get. Majority rules. Chalk it up to a psychological effect, or put in other words, damn the biggest group flopped from overage to major shortfall that fast (bureaucratically speaking)...!? Side note: an interesting development is the politcal language created to say we are deepening in this crisis to a point we can't produce our way out of it...in a big way "absorption" problems = too few IPs to train new recruits production rate needed IMHO. When they advertise unforeseen delays in training non-MX or WX related, it is real baaadddd. Why not spin that language! Don't waste a good crisis! Right, right? ...ugh

I heard in the fall directly from AMC/A1KD that they hand picked the candidates to ensure their "records" would be competitive for future advancement (aka promotion), thus a few average Joe's who applied were denied entry. It was what, 8 who applied and 5 picked...forget. The reasoning was if they're not competitive now it wouldn't assure long term program success, put another way if these few don't promote the program will wither and die.

HASC NDAA FY20 version just renews last year's offer...present "business case" does not appear to be max -performed yet thus no bureaucratic justification or urgency to change policy yet. However, as everyone knows, that's faulty logic considering the pilot exodus trend is accelerating not in govt's favor... https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-115hr5515rh/pdf/BILLS-115hr5515rh.pdf

Oh protect the passports for the kids now/in future...add to settlement desires If you like to OCONUS travel, get it in court order that kiddos can travel, must maintain valid US passport, who maintains them/ holds them, and where they're allowed to go (with appropriate notary parent sig's required of other parent)! DoS has required verbiage on their website for one-parent filing and notary parent signed travel permission

Ask lawyer about recording in-person and in-home. If possible, record 100% of your time around her JIC. Oh, move any guns to a responsible third party. https://www.dmlp.org/legal-guide/florida-recording-law

Friend recommends: https://www.ourfamilywizard.com/product-features/mobile-apps

https://www.myfloridalaw.com/divorce/adultery-and-divorce-in-florida/ Get her immediately served with a assets freeze order if prudent. https://www.collaborativefamilylawfl.com/divorce-in-florida-some-answers-to-difficult-questions-by-howard-raab-esq/

I've heard they want to do that too before seperating the LAF into functional fields promotion categories. Which if they did that... How would the institutional job requirements (i.e. school instructors, Recruiters, etc.) be promoted? And against who? I believe they'd be short-changed and even worse off than before. If communities don't value institutional positions now, what would seperating them out do!?! Or would they fight over a promotion aggregate like an AF MLR notion?

https://go.afa.org/e/285922/er-Aggressor-Light-Strike-aspx/4x39gf/487542834?h=GZSUrX7SY-Rq0dROig76ir2dc6ccJxfJRqaj7bUbQnQ “Strictly Trainer” T-X Now a Candidate for Lead-in Fighter, Aggressor, Light Strike"

I corroborate his hearsay, its not the MLR nor for the MLR's function. Instead to gather empirical data of new vs old way of PRFs against two promotion boards. Senior leaders needs data before a decision to make PRFs much shorter...

What's the longest rate lock available? And how much?

The F-16 demo team was recently TDY to California training within the last 2 weeks...its in their Twitter feed

Damn, right now it seems the AD guy that...

This is the reality and perspective of a seasoned pilot and based in experiential-reality, what you're arguing against is leaders who are making an on-paper argument for new toys, technology refresh, and better performance (MX & Ops). How leaders from desks perceive and justify things is and will always be slightly, or majorly, disconnected from reality (because Execs/Aides dont fly as long or far as a turkey). However Execs/Aides can be good people...they just have a different admin-fight

I predict in three or four years O5 promotions rates will be extremely high, and many passed-over O4s will get picked up. This because O4 rates were effectively like 99% with most of the passed over O3s, like ~300, promoted (one 8 yrs APZ I personally know). "Second string" or APZ personnel are being called up and largely depleted meaning little to no competition to IPZ/APZ O5 in the future, just like O4 for next ~5 years, and passed over people will be picked up to fill the manning bathtub the exodus created. Put another way, the "bubble" will rise in this manning system. VRRAD and VPLAD aren't enough to normalize the manning pyramid again. They cut too deep and scared away too many. If this macro trend continues, the exodus that is, O5 will be 100% "opportunity" around 2022 *all #'s grossly mentally calculated Cheers, up or out! Or IN because, regretfully (tongue in cheek), we need you!!

Everyone get scared of flying, get a doctors note, SATO books and you ride Amtrak as a family until you can board the Queen Elizabeth 2 with throwback cast member Lidnsay Lohan, then enjoy the slow boat ride. Bring luxury suit, party.

https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1738529/goldfein-gets-up-close-view-of-new-t-x-trainer/ ...."convinced Goldfein that the plane has the potential to deliver what future pilots and warfighters need."

Two categories got a bump in tiers which equated to max $ per NDAA and more flexible length options. Renewal and "late-taker" options are flexing with tier. Lower tier # = more $ and more flexibility. $0.02...as always this policy is years lagging the trend/chasing the trend and crawling, not even taking baby-steps. It won't be enough, will have to change [i.e. increase in value] again this year (value increases can be options-based like timing front/back/choice or $ qty)

USAF (# 15/17) is better than TSA (DHS # 17/17)...barely... https://bestplacestowork.org/rankings/overall/large It's science...must be true, and it's a strat!!!...the USAF understands those. This one is bottom third, aka monitor for Command!! https://bestplacestowork.org/rankings/detail/AF00

At Maxwell this year there was a gal picked 3 days before class started. She PCA'd across the street.

I know a guy. He didn't hear anything his alternate year; got picked up next year as primary. No CFM contact, unless it's to load a RIP offering a school spot. Maybe the CFM is your bro gouges you up', probably not. CFMs exists to support needs of the AF, Senior leaders create that need. He did learn a DEDB Master OOM exists, but will never be disclosed. It ranks DEDB candidates, selects and alternates. It's used when an alternate is activated. Sometimes alternates are activated by rank order, other times skipping order until a prerequisite of slot is achieved. Sometimes political MAJCOM shenanigans fight and achieve skipping the next qualified alternate, perhaps that's after cold-calling an alternate to determine their desire or even maybe for (or to manufacture) an operational deferment. All kinds of politically inspired admin games are played. Just wait, be patient, realize Senior Leadership (DT & WG/CC) will be watching and call upon you if they desire.

The 2005 YG Lt Col IPZ promotion rate that should be expected can be quickly, reasonably estimated. NOTE: one massive wildcard lately developing complicates precise calculations -- FGO continuation. Each year the USAF needs to promote ~1,000 to O5 IPZ to feed the sausage maker. We haven't significantly restructured the force through O5 corps growth so only attrition needs calculating, but wait, other subtle variables are in play too. The USAF is never so clear cut. Subtract a modest W.A.G. of six dozen for BTZ from prior years. Because of retention of FGOs through continuation and the fact that DOPMA limits certain Officer Corps ranks size, the promotion rate could actually go down!! I dont know of a way to calculate quantity of continuation-continued Officers (maybe through AvB take rates of high YAS Officers...dang Nav bonus takers probably hurting 05's O5 chances! Who ate my lunch...Nav!? I digress... Recently there have been about ~1,400 IPZ eligibles yearly. But the 2005 YG should be less than ~1400. That is because of Force Shaping shwacking the 2005 YG (hit with RIF). Note for future use: even more deeply shwacked younger than 2005 YGs (hit by RIF, VSP, TERA for prior Es, etc)...aka 100% promo to Major "competitors"

Being here myself since 2007...I see you just don't understand. May you be enlightened. There is always a point to BaseOps forums, it's why they exist. It's also why I check them often; Fresh perspective. (Thank you all over these years). May BaseOps live past my years... Hopefully soon we should we praise you for... Please understand: