Taiwan inaugurated its new President, Lai Ching-te, who says he will assert Taiwan's sovereignty. China has apparently encircled Taiwan earlier today in a "surprise" military drill called "Joint Sword".
Just now reading some WH Press Briefing notes and trying to coalesce a big picture view of what's happening.
- Jake Sullivan was asked about the UK's assessment that China is giving aid to Russia. He says we haven't seen that and looks forward to talking to the UK to find out why they're claiming this. I thought this was a foregone conclusion.
He goes on to say, "What I would point out is that just recently we have been articulating, in quite urgent terms, our concern about what China is doing to fuel Russia’s war machine — not giving weapons directly, but providing inputs to Russia’s defense industrial base. That is happening. That is something we’re concerned about. "
- China sent a delegation to attend the funeral of the Iranian President. China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil. India's Minister of External Affairs has expressed his frustration with the US over a port India and Iran are partnering on. India has surpassed $50 Billion in trade with Russia for the first time and looking to sign a long term oil deal with Russia.
- China is accelerating its record breaking US bond selloff and piling into gold.
- The interests of Russia, China, Iran, India are becoming more aligned. Anyone who looks at a map can see why this is a problem for us. BRICS nation economic growth is double that of the G7.
None of these developments are new. But the rate of change and scope is increasing. We have major players constituting a huge part of the global population, and the trends: diplomatically, militarily, and economically are away from the United States. Each challenge to US dominance, be it Taiwanese airspace incursions, getting kicked out of Niger, etc lowers the threshold for the next one to occur and our leadership only instills confidence in our adversaries.
Perhaps we have an opportunity to change things somewhat during the next election, but I personally doubt it. I think the probability is high our adversaries realize their best opportunity to create the most destabilization in the US is during the next 6 months.