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There are generally three types of climate deniers: Group 1) "climate change is not happening." Group 2) "Ok, climate change is happening, but it's not anthropogenic." Group 3) "climate change is happening, and Ok, is anthropogenic, but...the effects will be minimal , and certainly not worth changing our way of life." --Due to the overwhelming amount of evidence from multiple independent fields of study, Group 1 has thankfully shrunk and most in Group 1 have migrated to Group 2. If someone is still Group 1 at this point, there's nothing you can do for them. It's like chemtrailers or flat-earthers. Evidence is irrelevant to them. --Group 2's popular mantra, echoed by BrickHistory, is (to paraphrase) "the earth goes through cycles. Yes it's currently warming, but it has warmed in the past. We've had ice ages. We've even had periods in earth's history that are warmer than today. Therefore, we can conclude that humans play no (or negligible) part in it." This is the premier example of Dunning-Kreuger. It's a cringeworthy reminder that most people with a strong denial of climate change have literally never bothered to do any research into it at all. How do I know? Because any scientific book, journal, debate, lecture, etc. on the subject will immediately frame the problem in terms of rate of change. No credible scientist disputes that the earth has experienced large variations in climate. The difference now is the rate. It's faster. That's the core assertion. Change that used to take 10's or 100's of thousands of years is now occurring over centuries or decades. Let's say you mow your lawn once every other week. The grass grows, you cut it. Cyclical. What sort of questions would you raise if you found yourself having to mow the grass every day. Or every hour. That's the difference. Not simply that the grass grows and you have to cut it, but that the rate is freakishly fast, and accelerating. So what would you do? You'd try to figure out why. ....did I use a different fertilizer? More water? Did I plant a new type of grass? Is there something in/under the soil? ....You get the point. You would try to isolate the independent variable. When it comes to climate change, there are indeed many natural factors that affect it (solar irradiance, axial tilt, etc.). But those have always existed. And they're measurable. Again, with just a little research you will find that science can easily isolate the variables. Those variables do have an effect, but they do not account for the massive increase in the current rate of climate change. Group 2ers parroting the "Earth goes through natural cycles" are like someone having a really strong opinion on how the KC--NE game will go tomorrow. But as the conversation continues, it becomes clear they've never even heard of Patrick Mahomes or Bill Belichick. They saw a meme, or overhead something they thought sounded clever on TV and want to present it as their own. But they don't actually know anything about the two teams. Or maybe even about football. ....So you cringe, possibly roll your eyes, and go find someone else to talk to. --Group 3ers concede to the overwhelming evidence, but try to minimalize it. Their group is, in my experience, characterized by pessimism, apathy, and defeat. As you've heard here, Group 3ers will say 'China and India are larger carbon emitters.' Or that wind/solar/renewables are expensive and consume energy to build, thus negating the effort. The mantra is essentially, "it's too difficult.....so fvck it." Not the America I know. We are the global leader, the superpower. We have global influence. Other countries do what we do. At least for now. If we would simply lead, others would follow. Likewise, innovation is tough. Maybe solar and wind aren't the end-all, be-all. Or maybe not in their current form. We have to experiment. Risk failure. We have to try. There are dozens of proposed lines of effort out there....we don't need all of them to work. But none will work if we just give up. It's a complex problem, like say, landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to earth. We could embrace the challenge and see similar results as the space race -- leaps in technological advances, achievement of a common goal, etc. Or we can say 'fvck it, it's too tough for us. Let's let China or the EU figure it out.' For those of you in Group 1, 2, and 3, I will close with this: Climate change is happening and is anthropogenic. There is no question of that basic premise. Donald Trump and Joe Biden and AOC and Nancy and Mitch will all come and go. Even Al Gore will be gone one day. But climate change will be with us for the rest of all our lives. And our children's. It's not going away, and I encourage you each year, or each decade to pause and ask: "Hmmm....is that pesky climate change thing over yet? Did the scientists, who dedicate their lives to understanding this, collecting data and evidence in dozens of fields of study, all over the globe finally realize they were wrong this whole time and that the earth 'just goes through cycles?' Did they finally give up and admit this was a leftist conspiracy and a hoax to drive a carbon tax?" The answer will be No. We can discuss, like ViperMan suggests, the validity of specific policies and proposals and the way forward -- that's where the debate needs to be. But again, for the record, 100%, you will not see anthropogenic climate change just fade into a non-issue or revealed as some sort of elaborate hoax. In your whole life. Regardless of the petty noise and friction and squabbling on the internet, in the media, or even in the halls of congress.

Present evidence, not correlation based on models trained from data based only on industrial humans. You've presented no science whatsoever, just an emotional diatribe. That's not science.

Copy, there are heretics, agnostics, and atheists at odds with your religion.

If I may offer a completely different perspective. Friend, you haven't lost your drive, your desire, your motivation. You've lost your heart. If you think that you'll be able to jump to the Navy, Marines, Air Force, Coast Guard, Homeland Security (all of which have flying) and that said flying job will stir you back to who you want to be by scratching that itch, you're wrong. Oh, don't hear me wrong. The itch is real and so is your disgust with your current situation. Very real, very valid, very potent, and very very treacherous. From what I can hear, the solution you are seeking isn't the real antidote...it's a band-aid...granted, it's a very comforting one, but a short term solution none-the-less. Unless you get your heart back, you will get bled dry by a thousand other tiny cuts that any other institution WILL inflict. The USAF did it to me when I was about 27, and many other's on this board will attest to the same. You need to get your heart back so you can endure that course. My recommendation is to definitely go snowboarding. Take some time to clear the perspective...preferably without a smart phone. Decide about quitting your job afterwards. Take a book with you too: "Becoming a King" by Morgan Snyder. Only 200 pages. It might help you re-discover the real fire and where your heart went. Without your heart, nothing you try will succeed. Rediscover it though, and you're in a whole new ball-game. What I hear about your work situation could benefit, in the short term, from an adjustment of perspective...the cubicle is not the prison, it's the enabling water-fountain and or spring-board to finance your real career/adventure/commissioning. Endure only as much as you have to. Don't jump early, but definitely don't jump late. Leverage it until you don't need it anymore...and it sounds like you still might need it...but I'm just guessing on that last part. Afraid of money mistakes you've made? Ok, don't make those mistakes again. It don't mean you're dumb, it means you've had an experience and learned from it. What you've done DOES NOT define who you are nor what you will do in the future, unless you let it. Go get your heart back. You want a change of career into flying and you won't take no for an answer? Ok. Blitz through your instrument and commercial ratings like you mean it, and start flying night cargo. I'm being completely serious here. Do it. Quit your job and hang it out there. Do it, live in squalor for season, make some mistakes, learn from them, and move on. If that's what it takes to get your heart back, it's FAR better than moving from bad situation to bad solution. That road...the one where you fix today by jumping to what looks like greener pastures in the military...(as several here have alluded to) will only lead you right back to the discontent you feel right now, only it will be worse, because then you'll be saddled with a 8-10 year commitment to the military that you have no choice about. Go get your heart back (pro-tip, let your wife know what's going on, but do not look to her for the answer of finding your heart), then go get your flying career. If those goals coincide, all-the-better, but measure the cost first. You may decide to wait, but don't stand still. Standing still is indecision. Waiting has purpose, meaning, and a trigger to end it. Whatever you do: Don't stand still. FF

There are some baffling results on that list, including a golden nugget APZ with a P an no IDE (seriously?!) who got picked up, yet there were multiple DPs NOT picked up. The lesson is: Go Guard/AFRC...but I digress... I know the pain of getting passed over and that game sucks any way you play it, especially with a DP. Sorry man. The good news is, this isn't the end, and if you don't make promotion later, the USAF REALLY needs you. It's weird, but it's true. Your commander should have a full data download and fact finding mission of his/her own...I'd be pissed if you were in my unit and this happened. However, the individual (my experience is 3 years old, so take it with a grain of salt) that conducts all the passed over counseling is a Miss Autumn Fowley (I don't have global, so i might be spelling that wrong) at AFPC. Passed over counseling is a one-on-one phone interview with her where your record is evaluated against a sampling of records from your board. She should give an assessment of what's different in the passed over record, and what items stand out as different and might have contributed to not making it. At no point will you get a 100% answer as to why you didn't make it. You will never know who was on the board, nor what was said about your PRF. Great process, right? (For frame of reference, Marine officers know who will be grading their board before they even turn in their PRFs, and are encourage to ask individuals why they didn't make it) Ask your commander what the current process is regarding continuation. That shouldn't be a player unless you get passed over 1 APZ though. If you are a flyer, you should get continued, but stranger things have happened. Ask your commander and don't quit until you have solid answer on the current process. If you don''t get an answer, consider skipping your commander, it's that important. The last thing you want is a surprise letter saying you've not been continued because of some form that wasn't submitted correctly (I've seen it happen). Again, this should all come from your commander. However, having experienced no support upon being passed over, I don't want you to suffer more frustration in this moment. PM me if you've got more questions.

The evidence is available to everyone. I'm not going to summarize climate change for you. And for two specific reasons: First, I don't know what group you're in. Group 1, you want me to demonstrate that the earth is warming? No thanks. Group 2, you want me to provide evidence that global warming is anthropogenic? Again, ....read. There are countless books, peer-reviewed scientific journals, articles, videos, periodicals, etc. that are available to everyone. It's 2020. Google it. Type "Climate Change" in to Amazon and order a few books. Start with this one: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1612198023?pf_rd_r=9M7GK2BS4CGF80WE05JP&pf_rd_p=edaba0ee-c2fe-4124-9f5d-b31d6b1bfbee. Also search for references and literature within the DoD. There's tons available. The Navy, Marines, and the Joint Staff are full up on this while the AF in particular is lagging. Some might say that me not laying out the evidence is a cop-out. That's fine. Teach me how algebra works. Teach me meteorology. Or chemistry. On an internet forum. Present evidence, or else it's just "religion." If a flat-earther asks you to present evidence that the earth is in-fact spherical, where do you even begin? Second, I don't have any confidence that it would matter. You've made up your mind, ...and you know it. You think the models are based on 'assumption.' Specifically, you don't think ice core samples are valid, and therefore the main way we derive data dating back to 800,000 yrs is all invalid. That's fine. But you can see why if that's your starting place, it would be a waste of my time to engage and try to prove otherwise. What I will do is to again reiterate that time will serve as the vindicator. (*Although I don't know how old you are. If you're in your 60's or 70's, you'll go to your grave never knowing you were wrong. If you're under 40, and live to US expectancy, my point stands.) See, in you're mind, AGW is wrong, faulty, etc. And under that logic, surely, there will be a time in the not-so-distant future where mankind will discover that all the science and evidence was mistaken. "Oopps! I guess it's just cyclical and 'the earth is gonna earth.'" <sigh> Or better yet, it will be reveled that it was a lie perpetuated by nefarious actors in order to tax people. Well, again, I've got news for you. It's neither. And I encourage you, every 5-10 years, to ask if your ideas on AGW have been shown to be true, or whether AGW is still at the forefront of our discussions on energy, national security, food/water scarcity, migration, etc. Spoiler alert......it's real. 1) I never said we were capable of the "impossible." As far as claiming to be a superpower with global influence, I don't think it's a claim, I think that's a fact, no? As for how long will it last? No idea. .....A very short time if we decide "fvck it," and give up. 2) Don't know. I assume significant changes to the US electrical power grid would be gradual. Phased in? With redundancies and back-ups? To mitigate risk? I'm truly not sure what you're getting at. 3) We don't. We can cede the leadership role. And if the current course continues, we will, in our lifetime. To China. I admit I was raised with a post-war American mindset......I harbor ideas about American exceptionalism and the idea that America "is not just one more indistinguishable entity on the world stage, but that the United States has been essential to the preservation and progress of freedom" and that we have a special role to play in that regard. Increasingly, we hear themes of isolationism these days. I get it. People are tired of endless wars and entanglement abroad. Heavy lies the crown. We can take the crown off, stretch our necks and enjoy the temporary relief, but I'm not so sure we'll like how it feels when another country picks it up and dons it. 4) It won't be the end of life or humanity. Granted, some book titles, news headlines, and politicians speak with that level of sensationalism to grab attention. But few scientists think climate change will 'end humanity.' Also, very few people talk about 'reversing' climate change. The discussion centers around slowing and/or mitigating. But what will it look like? I don't know. Take for example India. The Ganges river is glacial fed, and the glaciers in the Himalayas are melting at an unprecedented rate, giving the 500 million people in the basin below a false impression of the health of the river. Meanwhile, all indications are that it's going to be monsoon-fed only by the turn of the century. And they're already depleting the underground aquifers. Where will those 500 million people go when there's no water? People don't just sit around and wait to die of dehydration. There will be mass migration across ethnic, tribal, religious, and state lines. ....I'm betting there will be some fighting involved. It won't be the end of humanity, but it'll be a mess. Similarly, what happens when the Colorado river dries up? Or when huge portions of Miami are under water? It won't be the end of humanity. It'll just suck. For some more than others.

Want to slash American carbon? Build nuclear power plants.

Haven't scrolled back through to check so I hope I'm not intruding here but if you know you didn't get selected and your "leadership" allows you to check the list tomorrow and not see your name, then that is an epic failure and pisses me off. Too much of that going around in today's Air Force.

The POC told me yesterday that the board has been pushed to the right. "Most likely January." I downloaded the PDFs. Feel free to PM me and I can email them.

a few months? hope doesn't pay the bills. UPT won't solve all your problems and your quality of life might not be the best. (12 hour days, lots of TDYs post UPT, deployments etc) job is good, but i'm concerned you've built it up so much in your mind that it'll disappoint. don't get me wrong it's a great career path. unsolicited advice: i'd keep your well paying engineering job until you have something concrete lined up. 2020 isn't the year to be hoping to find a random job to pay bills before UPT. have you started your PPL? maybe that can keep you fired up until the air force comes calling.

I don't think they did the entire list merit ordered. I was told a certain percentage was merit ordered then the rest was time in grade based. My line number is fairly low and I have APZ friends with lower numbers. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

There is a form you submit, which explains the error, and how it affected your board. Personally, I would try. You lose nothing by trying to meet the supplemental. Touch bases with Autumn Foley, she’ll be able to provide current guidance. Mine experience is several years old. For reference, my OSB showed me in S flying status, versus K flying status. I was on staff, and the paperwork hadn’t caught up to reflect me being in an Non-Flying billet. I used that to get another look.

100% it is enough

So I'll probably be at the bottom...

Everything FourFans said is spot on. I do think it’s Autumn Foley, she’s been there for awhile. The only additional piece of advice, is scour your As Meet records. If you find anything missing or incorrect, there’s a process to apply and meet a supplemental board. If your missing an OPR, could be a game changer. The guy punch is real, and I never really get more than “needed more O6 strats”. Keep your head up, different opportunities are available to you now.

And that's not good news they're bouncing either. I'm interested to see if FIA is going to do anything to try and attract more engine suppliers, otherwise it's going to get even more boring.

Yes. It may take a couple of days. I checked too. They may be on first thing tomorrow morning.

That’s true! I forgot about the paperwork part (been through it before). anyhow, I’ve been told I didn’t make it by 1 random person on this board (who has a “friend with a list”). so I’m going in expecting not to make it. The lists are all segregated by location, SRID, and LAF category, and I’m not even certain if this guy’s “friend” knows that or knows what list he was looking at. if I don’t make it, I’m doing an FOIA request for the bottom 10 promoted and making a case for mine. In my opinion, my record is good enough, and I’ve seen hundreds of packages through my exec days.

I already know my results (thank you to the grapevine), but my leadership has not contacted me in anyway to give me the same info. So about what I am used to!

I was told in person...but I'm at a GSU with like 5 total active duty, so...

Just spent a year and a half running a state nuclear response team (loved the job but to tell you how much the upper management in state government sucks, I just took a job as an AFJROTC instructor-would rather deal with teenagers...), the whole radiation thing is way overblown and the risk of a serious nuclear power plant accident that impacts the public is extremely small. And the safety culture at nuclear power plants makes Air Force aviation safety culture look positively careless from what I could tell.

Or, you could be right-leaning like me and think that we are changing the climate, but still disavow the leftist attempts to over-regulate everything. 1. We are changing the climate. 2. We don't have to find or buy into the "political" solutions; we can (and probably will) find technical/engineering ones. In 90 minutes, more energy arrives on the planet than humans use in an entire year, from all sources. The form this debate takes is a complete side-show to me. There is this trope on the right where any admission that humans are affecting the planet means we have to go along with the green new deal, or whatever - we don't. There's also this group on the left that is blind to the source of most of human progress - technology, not politics. I scoff both frames.

Seth is a really good dude and one of the biggest brains in the Herk community. I didn’t know he was doing ATPs but he should be everyone’s go to.

As a former Enlisted guy who got out, went to state school for undergrad, a prestigious private school for my masters, and just applied to a state school for a doctorates program, and have been through a few job interviews post-military, I would say where you go to school does matter somewhat. Your mileage my vary based on the industry you’re trying to go in. If it’s Civil Service or defense contractor (what I’m currently), I’d say it doesn’t matter. The government treats a JD from Yale and a JD from Texas Tech as the same, just check the box. My sister’s a recruiter and has told me that recruiters usually give applicants a pass if they have a “degree mill” school on their resume as long as they have a legitimate school for their other degree e.g USAFA for undergrad, Touro for grad school. At the last two jobs I’ve worked, where I went to college was brought up in the interview due to either the interviewer being alumni at the same college, or they were impressed by me going to a prestigious school in a competitive program. Like nunya said, plenty of legitimate state and private schools offer good graduate programs that are fully online or a hybrid (have to go in-residence for a few days on campus). You’ll have some people here post that they got a great job with their box checking degrees at degree mills and that’s great. But that’s obviously not the norm and just like what we’ve seen with the recent airline industry, especially as of yesterday, life can throw you a curveball and you’re polishing up your resume for something else.

are you financially secure enough to quit and wait out the timing aspect of it? i understand the frustration, but might be more prudent to hold onto the engineering job until you have something else lined up.

Recently declassified photo we have in the squadron. 2020-09-09 14-57.pdf

Here's a recent article about the "Oath Keeper" movement, the Meal-Team-6 cosplay crowd that PYB was so fervently aligned with. I wonder if he's still wasting his retirement suing his HOA or his neighbors or whatever for their Facebook posts. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/right-wing-militias-civil-war/616473/