BigWing

My boss had it already when he notified me. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

I don't think they did the entire list merit ordered. I was told a certain percentage was merit ordered then the rest was time in grade based. My line number is fairly low and I have APZ friends with lower numbers. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Happy to see this then. I have a few friends who were floored last time around when they didn't make it. Surprised everyone when it happened so hopefully these numbers will right some of the past mistakes. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

APZ higher than usual, right? I was hoping that would be the case with the ~90% opportunity that some of the love would be spread to the APZ group since some of them would be knocked out of the pool next year once the 5 year window format begins. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

How anybody who knows a wing exec looks right now. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Bingo? Shared with me today. Unable to confirm on mypers. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

I'm putting my chip for board release bingo on Tuesday, 6 October. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Nope. I went to IDE third look in AY20 and my IPZ board met May of my student year. Currently waiting on results. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Something to consider about these numbers is that anyone who is currently attending in-res IDE but who hasn't completed ACSC via correspondence will show up in the "No IDE" category. Their OPB will show "Select" until they graduate to let the board know that the person is a student and didn't blow it off. I suspect that a majority of the no IDE promotees were third look to school and either didn't do correspondence because they were a select off the board or just rolled the dice on getting picked up. I'm not saying that some of these people didn't do IDE at all, but I don't think that its as common as it would appear on the surface.

There's a chicken and egg debate that can go with this as well though. Is in-res IDE a big discriminator because of the development it provides or does it stand out to the board because it's an easy way to toss somebody into the select pile quickly because they've already been competitively selected and identified as being in the top 15% or so? I've been told by several bosses that it's easy to pick out the top 10%-15% and the bottom 10%-15%, it's the rack and stack of the middle 70%-80% that's a lot tougher. I guess Ps vs DPs are the same, although in an ideal world DPs wouldn't be given as much weight as they actually are due to the nuances of people being in pools of varying size and quality based on the assignment they're in when their PRF accountability date hits. If in-res IDE can be used as a discriminator to give the board more time to review records of those in the middle to help them correctly identify the most deserving, I'm all for it.

Wow, actually some movement this week. It's with USD (P&R) as of the 16th. Looks like past board public release was ~2 weeks give or take from this point.

Fair enough, you're probably right about that. I guess the point I was trying to make in response to 14N Guy's comment about pin on order across the categories is that the number of people who it makes sense to move up in the order is probably small enough that it shouldn't cause any major issues between the different categories. Even if 10% from the overall selects are moved to the top of the list, most of those people would pin on during the first month with a few in the second month. Assuming that it doesn't really matter to merit order in the 11% to the end of the list (or for the sake of discussion we can just call it anyone who isn't being actively career monitored), I don't see it causing any huge fights between the different competitive categories. To your point about those whose careers are being monitored being more likely to be merit ordered, I don't even see how the boards would be able to merit order anyone beyond that without it taking a huge amount of time. The scoring system just doesn't really offer a ton of granularity to differentiate the majority easily.

If I had to guess I'd say that date of rank will still reign supreme for pin on dates so that would solve most of the pin on rank order across the categories. I would be really surprised if they apply merit based order the entire list and suspect that it will just be a few top performers that get bumped to the front of the line. Also keep in mind that the 06 year group is in an interesting place this board. Our "best and brightest" would already have been picked up BPZ during the last two boards, so who would they be pushing to the front this time around anyway? IDE in-res grads? Those who just missed the cut BPZ last time around? I think rank order will become more of a factor in future years with year groups that didn't have the opportunity to have their best promoted BPZ. I also want to add that I recognize it's not always the best and brightest who make it BPZ and that not all of those who are truly the best make it BPZ. As far as the delay goes, it's hard to tell if there even is a delay beyond what could be expected when a lot of people working the process are probably teleworking. With updates being announced over a month after they happened (looking at you 22 July SECAF date posted in late August), who knows where it really is. While it's fun to be the guy "in the know," rumint is just that, rumors.

That doesn't make much sense since that should've happened during the board, and definitely before it hit the SECAF level. The board instructions said that some officers may be moved up in the order but in reality, that should only affect maybe 1-2% of the list. Anything beyond that really doesn't matter. Your J1 doesn't seem to have the best gouge anyhow. Didn't you post a while back that the J1 had said the release would be end of August?

I'm beginning to wonder if its being held up for a reason. With the changes that were made to the promotion system this year coupled with the short notice board "via correspondence" construct I wouldn't be surprised if they're a) taking extra time to make sure the results look in line with what would be expected based on records, or b) already found that they aren't and are trying to figure out what to do next. Just a hunch, but there were a lot of seemingly rushed changes this time around.