waveshaper Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 The East-West Center.org is a decent source for current/background information on most on-going activities/issues in East/Southeast Asia, Pacific Region and some of the on-going activities/issues in South Asia/Central Asia. Lots of information and worth a look if you can find the time. http://www.eastwestcenter.org/about-ewc/mission-and-organization This center was established in 1960 by Congress and is located in Honolulu. Some of the products they routinely publish are; Policy Studies, Asia Pacific Issues, Pacific Islands Policy, Asia Pacific Bulletins, East-West Center Working Papers, etc. I am not sure if this agency has an agenda or not, so like any source take the information presented with a little skepticism. Everyone seems to have a somewhat different opinion on what China's intentions are and that's a good thing. Also, its never to early or late to start to try and understand what our current and future adversaries may be up to. This normally requires a little look into the shadows of history to better understand unfolding present day events and may also give you a glimpse into future possibilities. Conflict Prevention Urgent for the Senkaku Conundrum; Asia Pacific Bulletin, Number 212; Somewhat long; http://www.eastwestcenter.org/sites/default/files/private/apb212.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prozac Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 My day job is flying freight out of Shanghai. It is stunning how much shit moves out of that place on a daily basis. They had to build a new port on an island several miles offshore to handle the ship traffic. China is the world's factory. Their success and continued growth is dependent on that fact. They know that as long as we are a player in Asia, as much as they'd like to, they can't mess too much with Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, or any of several other countries they have territorial disputes with. That isn't to say they wouldn't if they thought they could get away with it. Which is why even our current administration understands why it's important to re-focus our military and diplomatic efforts on Asia. It's also why the Japanese have been changing their tune on US troop levels there recently. I think as long as we are the strongest kid in the neighborhood, China's economic ambitions will outweigh their military ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prosuper Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 A blue water navy with one aircraft carrier that may or may not be able to do flight ops does not project power. A large sub force does not guarantee success either , just look at the Kriegsmarine in both world wars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masshole Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 The Chinese are dealing with a lot of domestic issues at home and needed to draw attention from it. We flew bombers through the ADIZ and they did nothing against it, even though they claim to have tracked them the whole way. To prevent themselves from looking like douchetards, they deploy their one and only carrier group. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoleIt Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 The Chinese are dealing with a lot of domestic issues at home and needed to draw attention from it. We flew bombers through the ADIZ and they did nothing against it, even though they claim to have tracked them the whole way. To prevent themselves from looking like douchetards, they deploy their one and only carrier group. Nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbitcid Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Apparently the decision to declare an ADIZ did not coincide with any kind of actual force planning. I appears that the Chinese did not expect the US to challenge them so quickly (or at all) by flying through the ADIZ unannounced, and with B-52s to boot... Somewhat embarrassing no doubt. Based on the statements from the Chinese they were aware of the B-52s and were monitoring them during their tour of so called Chinese airspace. The Chinese don't like to be embarrassed so I suspect the next US flight through the ADIZ will be treated much more aggressively. I suspect however, that they will not be hot-dogging around the US aircraft like they did with the EP-3. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/chinas-move-to-establish-air-defense-zone-appears-to-backfire/2013/11/27/74313faa-5784-11e3-bdbf-097ab2a3dc2b_story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClearedHot Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Yeah you guys are right, China does not want a conflict. This should be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B*D*A Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 The Buff mission was planned well ahead of the ADIZ inception Of course China was able to monitor, it's well within ATC control. It's all good, but hardly a bold move on our part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waveshaper Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Every once in a blue moon these little territorial disputes/dick measuring contests spiral out of control. Just a few examples; Gulf of Tonkin Incident 1 and 2 = Gulf of Tonkin Resolution = History http://www.vietvet.org/thewall.htm Also, KAL Flight 007 is another example of a SNAFU by all parties involved. Occasionally stupid stuff happens when tensions are high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnimalMother Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 NSFW: http://i.imgur.com/KNFvX8Q.gif Not sure where this is from, but good lord, I almost choked on my beer laughing. Probably the best 7 second silent summary of US foreign policy that I've ever seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbitcid Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Looks like the Japanese and the South Koreans making a point of ignoring the Chinese ADIZ. If you are going to draw a line in the sand, you better be ready to react once its crossed. Not sure the Chinese had this in mind... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25133957 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClearedHot Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 China sends jets into air zone as Japan, South Korea defy it The Chinese planes had conducted normal air patrols on Thursday as "a defensive measure and in line with international common practices," Shen said China's air force would remain on high alert and take measures to protect the security of the country's airspace, Xinhua reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ram Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Mark your calendars: The Japan and the ROK are in agreement about something. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marlboro BLACK Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 China sends jets into air zone as Japan, South Korea defy it The Chinese planes had conducted normal air patrols on Thursday as "a defensive measure and in line with international common practices," Shen said China's air force would remain on high alert and take measures to protect the security of the country's airspace, Xinhua reported. News Video: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/video/china-sends-warplanes-disputed-air-103027974.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwShoot1209 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 http://killerapps.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/12/04/team_obama_changes_course_appears_to_accept_china_air_defense_zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SurelySerious Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 http://killerapps.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/12/04/team_obama_changes_course_appears_to_accept_china_air_defense_zone Weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuzz Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Weak. Surprised?http://www.gq.com/entertainment/celebrities/201312/least-influential-people-2013#slide=11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SurelySerious Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Surprised?http://www.gq.com/entertainment/celebrities/201312/least-influential-people-2013#slide=11 That about sums it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masshole Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 https://medium.com/war-is-boring/e52ee5f73616 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Majestik Møøse Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 https://medium.com/war-is-boring/e52ee5f73616 Uhh, I'm a tanker guy and even I see about 6.9 errors with this. 1.) AESA doesn't work that way. 2.) Everybody would be lost except the Raptors. 3.) The JASDF would shoot down at least 3 Korean airliners jets during their counterattack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jango220 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 (edited) Uhh, I'm a tanker guy and even I see about 6.9 errors with this. 2. I propose taking the discussion about this article to sipr baseops because I am genuinely interested in the rebuttals from the CAF guys. EDIT: Or the discussion can stay here, it just seems like this could turn into a vault-type discussion. Edited December 6, 2013 by jango220 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breckey Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravedigger Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 If this turns violent, I will buy everyone that posted in this thread a beer. Well played China, call the bluff and watch the world posture uselessly against a non-issue. I think our ADIZ' should apply to military aircraft as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Learjetter Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Nothing to add, just want to be in the thread in case Gravedigger's buying... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlyinGrunt Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 That dude makes some good arguments. However, there's only so much an armchair wing commander can foresee with no security clearance and no knowledge of any, much less all three, nations' TTPs and capes. Best points I see are 1) that we shouldn't assume our technology makes us invincible . . . but I don't think any of our dudes flying OCA/DCA/SEAD think that way. The second is that we need to be keenly aware of the anti-access/area-denial issues our limited basing presents. Of course, the entire DoD had been beating that drum for at least a decade in PACOM before some nerd with a computer game showed up . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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