What's wrong with the Air Force?

[sputnik]

I so used to love this thread.

I'm sad

[Danny Noonin]

There's no fighter pilot shortage, never will. There's plenty of qualified heavy drivers who simply didn't get a shot (timing and luck). In the Navy this isn't blasphemy, in the Air Force it is. Who knows the fuck why.

No, there is a fighter pilot shortage--a severe one--but it has nothing to do with heavy pilots, crossflow, number of qualified dudes, or any of the reasons dudes are spouting off about here.

It's about two things--training capacity in the FTUs and absorption capacity in the ops squadrons.

We could take every one of our "overage" heavy pilots and try to cross flow them, but we physically can't. There isn't enough FTU capacity to train them and I can't slam my ops squadrons with new wingmen beyond the level they are already slammed.

That's why we have the heavy overage to begin with...we closed about 5 fighter FTU squadrons, closed about another half dozen or more fighter ops squadrons so we were maxed out with what the squadrons that were left could take. There was no place to put any more so they sent more UPT grads into to heavies.

[Danny Noonin]

There are only two real things that could help (not solve) the projected ~1,100 11F shortage. (For perspective, that's about ~1,100 short out of <4,000 actual 11F billets, so it's significant)

1). Retain current 11Fs. Thus the targeted bonus and all the attention in this regard.

2). Increase absorbtion capacity. We aren't standing up new fighter squadrons or FTUs, so the only way to do this is via TFI active associations with guard or reserve squadrons (formerly TFAP). Sounds easy, just send a couple young RegAF fighter pilots to each ARC squadron. But unfortunately, it's a bit more complicated than it seems because they don't have the full time maintenance to generate enough sorties to support additive RegAF bodies (with a higher RegAF RAP requirement). And the RegAF maintenance community is ~80% manned so it's pretty painful to have to cough up that many mx bodies to go and support...it requires roughly 10 maintainers per pilot. But expect to see this kind of thing slowly increasing over the next couple years (as FTU production and mx can support) until virtually every ARC fighter squadron has a small RegAF det associated.

[NKAWTG]

&nbsp;

No, there is a fighter pilot shortage--a severe one--but it has nothing to do with heavy pilots, crossflow, number of qualified dudes, or any of the reasons dudes are spouting off about here.

It's about two things--training capacity in the FTUs and absorption capacity in the ops squadrons.

We could take every one of our "overage" heavy pilots and try to cross flow them, but we physically can't. There isn't enough FTU capacity to train them and I can't slam my ops squadrons with new wingmen beyond the level they are already slammed.

That's why we have the heavy overage to begin with...we closed about 5 fighter FTU squadrons, closed about another half dozen or more fighter ops squadrons so we were maxed out with what the squadrons that were left could take. There was no place to put any more so they sent more UPT grads into to heavies.

I'd argue it is all about the absorption capacity. The UPT/FTU pipeline can be cranked up if you needed to. You wouldn't even have to up the throughput out of pilot training, just give more fighter than heavy drops. Where the Air Force is short is in the experienced 11F patch wearing crowd. They them need in the ops squadrons, and sprinkled across the MAJCOM and joint staffs to bring that particular brand of expertise. Problem is the fighter community does not have enough cockpits and hours to crank out the type of experienced pilots needed. And that is before they start standing up new F-35 squadrons.

Even if they captured every 11F coming up on his commitment and locked him in till 20, they will still be short of what they think they need.

[justajob]

I remember talking to a cross-flow type a few years ago that did quite well after going to the viper. He said it would never happen again as many other communities gutted their best to fill fighter slots. Much like chopping 25,000 people in a year, you can't fix a decade+ worth of mismanagement with the flick of a pen. How big blue shapes its manning over the next 5 years will truly tell us whether or not our leaders are earning their pay.

[Danny Noonin]

&nbsp;

I'd argue it is all about the absorption capacity. The UPT/FTU pipeline can be cranked up if you needed to.

No, FTU throughput is still an issue. If it wasn't, we'd have about half a dozen other active associations right now but we couldn't produce enough fighter pilots to man both the associations and the RegAF ops squadrons.

Yes, you could theoretically crank it up, but much easier said than done and the impact is severe. FTUs are maxed out right now. To crank it up, I'd need to raid ops squadrons of IPs (they don't have enough now and stealing them drastically reduces my absorption capacity for MQT, FLUG, etc.) or IP-ready guys (again, not enough, plus I reduce my experience in the squadrons and buy an enormous IP upgrade training bill in terms of sorties). Then I need to add mx to produce more sorties....by raiding ops squadrons that are 80% mx manned and who don't have enough to produce RAP sorties now so it becomes a readiness nightmare. Then I need to add jets because I still can't squeeze enough UTE out of the jets they have no matter how much mx I throw at it. Which means I have to--you guessed it--steal from the ops squadrons and they have DOC statements to meet and RAP requirements.

So yes, it could be theoretically done but the costs/impact are far reaching and create bigger problems than the one problem it only very partially solves.

Edited March 6, 2014 by Danny Noonin

[Vprdrvr69]

This whole conversation makes me laugh uncontrollably!

...so I'm guessing leadership is now frowning at the 300~ish fighter pilots that they raped with bigfoots dick (TAMI) circa 2007. What about the numerous chapters in VSP/RIF shit-showery that we have had, and are currently experiencing? How bout the guys like me that watched those 157 Majors get screwed a few years ago- that sure weighs into my decision making calculus regarding the best way forward as I approach my ADSC expiration! We can max out training, create guard tenet units, ramp up FTU production or even crossflow the geniuses at AFPC to come fly jets- that ain't gonna fix shit when folks on the retainment end are jumping off the sinking ship in droves! It's like filling up a bathtub with the drain wide open. It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. For those 11F's still hanging around, get your ATP done because rumor has it Southwest is opening another window in the fall.

Now back to your regular scheduled program, "What's wrong with the Air Force?"

[Hueypilot]

For those 11F's still hanging around, get your ATP done because rumor has it Southwest is opening another window in the fall.

You can do better than SWA these days. As for the CAF vs MAF thing...I'm laughing as well. At some point in your career you just don't give a sh*t anymore.

[Warrior]

He's not a tanker guy.

I hear he's a B1 guy...

[aerobat95]

There is not a forum long enough to list all the reasons.....

[GlassEmpty]

I hear he's a B1 guy...

Try Again...

[ClearedHot]

It wasn't a "talent" issue with the crossflow pilots so much as it was an "experience" issue;

...On the most basic level, the crossflow pilots, for the most part, were not used to being single-seat decisionmakers at much higher speeds, and much higher Gs, while hand-flying significantly more aggressive/dynamic maneuvers.

In my opinion, a completely false argument to say “experience” is the issue, if that were the case how would a new UPT grad ever be successful going through Fighter RTU?

The problem is how to determine who's in Group 1, especially because a lot of people in Group 3 really believe they're in Group 1.

Truth.

One of the more important lessons I learned in UPT, just like life, the Air Force is not fair. The order in which people finished is VERY subjective and in my personal experience corrupt. Ultimately it was straight up flight commander rating (25%), not flight performance, that determined who finished in what order. It was not until after graduation that I found out just how bad it was in my class.

Example #1. A female in my class slept with her check pilot the night before her contact checkride. Example #2. The Academy grads in my class had all of the academic tests (and answers), ahead of time and they did not share with the rest of the class (perhaps I was naïve, but I never thought about cheating in UPT).

Example #3. I busted zero rides in T-38's, had a no downgrade “O” on my form check, a two downgrade “E” on my contact check, a two downgrade “E” on my Instrument check, and a one down grade “E” on my Nav Check. Our class leader (prior Nav), was on a hard crew with our flight commander and their wives were best friends(the class did not know). The class leader had multiple down grades on his contact check, six down grades on his Form check, I don't remember the Nav check scores, but he busted his Inst check with 17 downgrades...and he finished #1 in our class.

I am sure I sound like a disgruntled dude, I am not, I LOVE what I do...or did...it was what I was meant to do...but the current system is FAR from perfect.

No, there is a fighter pilot shortage--a severe one--but it has nothing to do with heavy pilots, crossflow, number of qualified dudes, or any of the reasons dudes are spouting off about here.

It's about two things--training capacity in the FTUs and absorption capacity in the ops squadrons.

We could take every one of our "overage" heavy pilots and try to cross flow them, but we physically can't. There isn't enough FTU capacity to train them and I can't slam my ops squadrons with new wingmen beyond the level they are already slammed.

That's why we have the heavy overage to begin with...we closed about 5 fighter FTU squadrons, closed about another half dozen or more fighter ops squadrons so we were maxed out with what the squadrons that were left could take. There was no place to put any more so they sent more UPT grads into to heavies.

How about we get over our fixation on fifth generation and use less than 1% of that money to buy a metric shit ton of light attack aircraft and fly 120,000 hours a year for the equivalent of what it costs to fly 6,000 hours in one F-35 squadron. We could afford to surge a group into light attack, fly the crap out of them for three or four years to season and weed out the weak swimmers, and build a cadre of “fighter-minded” and semi-experienced dudes/dudettes. We need out of the box solutions that will help us absorb more single seat folks without breaking the FTUs...it won't happen because ACC does not think props are sexy, but for the love of god, for a small investment we could move the ball a lot further down the field.

To be fair I did say fighter, not slow ass airplane that flies a turn around the target at a constant turn radius with multiple sensors and marking capabilities and something like 69 crew members all voting on if they shoot. Oh, I also train to actually pull the trigger and not as a contingency when multiple systems have failed but rather as a primary game plan. What is this "us" you speak of, I thought this was a MAF/CAF pissing contest, when did we let AFSOC into the bathroom?

BTW: This just got really fun, bring it old man.

To be fair, I was not talking to you, in general I avoid talking to rotorheads all together, it seems to confuse them. You might want to hold your replies until you catch up to the fight, which at your current airspeed of 69 knots, should be about four days from now. Before you brag about fixing your little pop guns forward and get all manly doing HH60 strafe, maybe you should actually do a real CSAR mission instead of making AFSOC do it for you. I will pass some props to you, just like Army Slick 60's, you guys make one hell of a dustoff platform.

[busdriver]

How about we get over our fixation on fifth generation and use less than 1% of that money to buy a metric shit ton of light attack aircraft and fly 120,000 hours a year for the equivalent of what it costs to fly 6,000 hours in one F-35 squadron. We could afford to surge a group into light attack, fly the crap out of them for three or four years to season and weed out the weak swimmers, and build a cadre of “fighter-minded” and semi-experienced dudes/dudettes. We need out of the box solutions that will help us absorb more single seat folks without breaking the FTUs...it won't happen because ACC does not think props are sexy, but for the love of god, for a small investment we could move the ball a lot further down the field.

This idea keeps coming back over and over, while I think there's merit I think ACC is scared shitless of any acquisition program that might pull money and more importantly perceived importance away from the F-35.

To be fair, I was not talking to you, in general I avoid talking to rotorheads all together, it seems to confuse them. You might want to hold your replies until you catch up to the fight, which at your current airspeed of 69 knots, should be about four days from now. Before you brag about fixing your little pop guns forward and get all manly doing HH60 strafe, maybe you should actually do a real CSAR mission instead of making AFSOC do it for you. I will pass some props to you, just like Army Slick 60's, you guys make one hell of a dustoff platform.

I officially love this thread now. Thanks for that, all the lame CAF/MAF non shit talking was boring.

[Techsan]

I always enjoy the herbivore v carnivore cripple fights!

[Warrior]

Try Again...

Sarcasm detector bent.

[NKAWTG]

&nbsp;

No, FTU throughput is still an issue. If it wasn't, we'd have about half a dozen other active associations right now but we couldn't produce enough fighter pilots to man both the associations and the RegAF ops squadrons.

Yes, you could theoretically crank it up, but much easier said than done and the impact is severe. FTUs are maxed out right now. To crank it up, I'd need to raid ops squadrons of IPs (they don't have enough now and stealing them drastically reduces my absorption capacity for MQT, FLUG, etc.) or IP-ready guys (again, not enough, plus I reduce my experience in the squadrons and buy an enormous IP upgrade training bill in terms of sorties). Then I need to add mx to produce more sorties....by raiding ops squadrons that are 80% mx manned and who don't have enough to produce RAP sorties now so it becomes a readiness nightmare. Then I need to add jets because I still can't squeeze enough UTE out of the jets they have no matter how much mx I throw at it. Which means I have to--you guessed it--steal from the ops squadrons and they have DOC statements to meet and RAP requirements.

So yes, it could be theoretically done but the costs/impact are far reaching and create bigger problems than the one problem it only very partially solves.

Sounds like you are saying we lack an experienced pilot cadre to sustain the force we have, much less ramp up production. The death by a thousand cuts of TAMI, RPAs, and non continuation is starting to hit back hard. The kicker is you need to make changes and spend capital (human or otherwise) now to fix the problems of 6 years out. That is well beyond the OPR cycle of any flesh peddler or GO leadership. CSAF is boxed into a corner with the budget, and pretty much everything is on the chopping block so we can buy one more F-35.

But to the original point, the supply side (FTU output) will be easier to fix than the absorption rate problem. I don't see a way to fix both. There isn't a place to stash pilots that gives them experience Big Blue needs besides the ops squadrons, and there aren't enough to go around.

[Ram]

Let's not forget that ops squadrons aren't just a "place to stash pilots." AFPC seems to think that the iron on the ramp is only there to create experienced 11Fs that can fill their precious staff billets.

Nevermind the fact that we might actually have to tussle with a near-peer adversary, right? Land wars in Asia never happen, right?

Meh...I'm sure the boys down at A1 have it all figured-out.

[HU&W]

How about we get over our fixation on fifth generation and use less than 1% of that money to buy a metric shit ton of light attack aircraft and fly 120,000 hours a year for the equivalent of what it costs to fly 6,000 hours in one F-35 squadron. We could afford to surge a group into light attack, fly the crap out of them for three or four years to season and weed out the weak swimmers, and build a cadre of “fighter-minded” and semi-experienced dudes/dudettes. We need out of the box solutions that will help us absorb more single seat folks without breaking the FTUs...it won't happen because ACC does not think props are sexy, but for the love of god, for a small investment we could move the ball a lot further down the field.

Great idea. This would fix many, many problems.

[slackline]

Example #3. I busted zero rides in T-38's, had a no downgrade “O” on my form check, a two downgrade “E” on my contact check, a two downgrade “E” on my Instrument check, and a one down grade “E” on my Nav Check.

"Hey, see that mountain over there? I bet I could throw this football over that mountain."

You don't sound disgruntled. You sound like Uncle Kip reliving how awesome you were back in the glory days.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[ClearedHot]

"Hey, see that mountain over there? I bet I could throw this football over that mountain."

You don't sound disgruntled. You sound like Uncle Kip reliving how awesome you were back in the glory days.

Thanks, glad I got my point across.

[Disco_Nav963]

This idea keeps coming back over and over, while I think there's merit I think ACC is scared shitless of any acquisition program that might pull money and more importantly perceived importance away from the F-35.

Maybe it could be framed as the political answer to the "getting rid of the A-10" problem. Especially if they promise Senator Ayotte to base them in NH.

[ElLoco]

"Hey, see that mountain over there? I bet I could throw this football over that mountain."

You don't sound disgruntled. You sound like Uncle Kip reliving how awesome you were back in the glory days.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

Or maybe his point was the inherent bias of the flight cc ranking ......

[Spoo]

I officially love this thread now. Thanks for that, all the lame CAF/MAF non shit talking was boring.

Yeah, I want to play too! Fuck fighters, fuck heavies, and fuck helos. Y'all can pump each other in the thick air.

This whole conversation makes me laugh uncontrollably!

...so I'm guessing leadership is now frowning at the 300~ish fighter pilots that they raped with bigfoots dick (TAMI) circa 2007. What about the numerous chapters in VSP/RIF shit-showery that we have had...

As in it's like a shit-shower? That sounds uncomfortable.

[WAG]

There are only two real things that could help (not solve) the projected ~1,100 11F shortage. (For perspective, that's about ~1,100 short out of <4,000 actual 11F billets, so it's significant)

1). Retain current 11Fs. Thus the targeted bonus and all the attention in this regard.

Whoa whoa whoa. So you're saying the Air Force should be compensating it's most highly skilled, high cost to produce, war-fighting personnel who genuinely risk their lives every day they step into the cockpit MORE than $200 a month over their non-rated peers?. GTFO!

What gave you this crazy idea of a more "corporate"-like Air Force?

[justajob]

I loved hooking kids in UPT and I gave a 0 E once. I'm sure there are some Santa Claus' out there that can top that.