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Promotion and PRF Information


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6 hours ago, ThreeHoler said:

 


You’re more than 2x passed over, right? Many times people don’t care to notify you because they figure you already know you didn’t make it.

 

Still, doesn’t matter.  It’s common etiquette for leadership to notify non selects, usually via 1-on-1 meeting, another failure of basic leadership in 14N Guy’s world. 

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Still, doesn’t matter.  It’s common etiquette for leadership to notify non selects, usually via 1-on-1 meeting, another failure of basic leadership in 14N Guy’s world. 


After my 1 APZ non-selection board, I never had another Commander tell me whether or not I got selected. The difference is that he had a DP, statistically 14N should have had a legitimate shot. 


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Promotion statistics posted:

 

Competitive Category CONS IPZ % SEL CONS APZ SEL % SEL
OPERATIONS 605 480 79.3 589 35 5.9
PILOT 420 337 80.2 361 26 7.2
NAVIGATOR 130 103 79.2 172 8 4.7
AIR BATTLE MANAGER 55 40 72.7 56 1 1.8
NONRATED OPS 178 129 72.5 235 19 8.1
MISSION SUPPORT 479 380 79.3 431 32 7.4
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Promotion statistics posted:
 
Competitive Category CONS IPZ % SEL CONS APZ SEL % SEL
OPERATIONS 605 480 79.3 589 35 5.9
PILOT 420 337 80.2 361 26 7.2
NAVIGATOR 130 103 79.2 172 8 4.7
AIR BATTLE MANAGER 55 40 72.7 56 1 1.8
NONRATED OPS 178 129 72.5 235 19 8.1
MISSION SUPPORT 479 380 79.3 431 32 7.4


Copy. Laze the building, not the people. I can do that. Laser on…do your thing.

CSV,
~Bendy


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On 6/23/2021 at 8:20 AM, 14N Guy said:

Promotion statistics posted:

 

Competitive Category CONS IPZ % SEL CONS APZ SEL % SEL
OPERATIONS 605 480 79.3 589 35 5.9
PILOT 420 337 80.2 361 26 7.2
NAVIGATOR 130 103 79.2 172 8 4.7
AIR BATTLE MANAGER 55 40 72.7 56 1 1.8
NONRATED OPS 178 129 72.5 235 19 8.1
MISSION SUPPORT 479 380 79.3 431 32 7.4

Are they planning to release the stats broken down by the actual categories?

LAF - A (Air Ops and Special Warfare)

LAF - C (Combat Support)

LAF - F (Force Modernization)

LAF - I (Information Warfare)

LAF - N (Nuclear and Missile Ops)

LAF - S (Space Operations...or is this going away with the Space Force?)

I continue to be shocked and dismayed by folks who bust their ass, get a DP, and then get passed over.  At that point...why bother even giving the senior rater DPs to hand out?  Just send all the records.  No point in the PRF if the board isn't going to listen.

 

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Are they planning to release the stats broken down by the actual categories?

LAF - A (Air Ops and Special Warfare)
LAF - C (Combat Support)
LAF - F (Force Modernization)
LAF - I (Information Warfare)
LAF - N (Nuclear and Missile Ops)
LAF - S (Space Operations...or is this going away with the Space Force?)
I continue to be shocked and dismayed by folks who bust their ass, get a DP, and then get passed over.  At that point...why bother even giving the senior rater DPs to hand out?  Just send all the records.  No point in the PRF if the board isn't going to listen.
 

They’re on stars-demog. You can find it by searching on mypers. APZ got royally screwed this year.


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1 hour ago, CaptainMorgan said:


They’re on stars-demog. You can find it by searching on mypers. APZ got royally screwed this year.


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Here's the APZ DP promotion Rates the last few years.

2015: 83.8%

2016: 100%

2017: 96%

2018: 91.7%

2019: 91.4%

2020: 91.3%

2021: 66.7%

For whatever reason, this board was significantly rougher for those individuals. That f'ing sucks.

Edited by jrizzell
grammar
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22 minutes ago, jrizzell said:

Here's the APZ DP promotion Rates the last few years.

2015: 83.8%

2016: 100%

2017: 96%

2018: 91.7%

2019: 91.4%

2020: 91.3%

2021: 66.7%

For whatever reason, this board was significantly rougher for those individuals. That ing sucks.

Good Lord...seems like this is going exactly the opposite direction that the Air Force is advertising with "year group agnostic" promotions.

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Here's the APZ DP promotion Rates the last few years.
2015: 83.8%
2016: 100%
2017: 96%
2018: 91.7%
2019: 91.4%
2020: 91.3%
2021: 66.7%
For whatever reason, this board was significantly rougher for those individuals. That f'ing sucks.


Is that the full story? Pretty sure APZ rates overall have gone up in recent years.

Agree that it is a shame that boards are apparently disregarding a senior rater’s DP promotion recommendation, especially when they only have so many allocated and them giving it to an APZ was one less available for an IPZ.
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Is that the full story? Pretty sure APZ rates overall have gone up in recent years.

Agree that it is a shame that boards are apparently disregarding a senior rater’s DP promotion recommendation, especially when they only have so many allocated and them giving it to an APZ was one less available for an IPZ.

‘07 YG missed their 1BPZ opportunity, so that probably hurt APZ chances this year. Next year, you’re going to have a YG that never got 2 or 1BPZ looks, so I would expect APZ numbers to drop to a new norm.


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Is that the full story? Pretty sure APZ rates overall have gone up in recent years.

Agree that it is a shame that boards are apparently disregarding a senior rater’s DP promotion recommendation, especially when they only have so many allocated and them giving it to an APZ was one less available for an IPZ.
 
I downloaded the Excel sheets from the Stars-Demog site (via MyPers direction). The numbers I posted are directly from that source. 
And after looking at the 2021 data the LAF-A APZ DP rate was even lower at 54.5%
This year was certainty a huge drop from the past.
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1 hour ago, CaptainMorgan said:


‘07 YG missed their 1BPZ opportunity, so that probably hurt APZ chances this year. Next year, you’re going to have a YG that never got 2 or 1BPZ looks, so I would expect APZ numbers to drop to a new norm.


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I think this is a logical explanation.  I think Big Blue is trying match Big Army's O5/O6 promotion timeline hence the 5 looks and no BPZs.  The transition period (starting this last board) is going to be painful until things "normalize".  The 1st look is now really 2BPZ, and 2nd look is 1BPZ, 3rd look is IPZ (~16 yr TIS).  So starting this year they need to ensure the golden children are promoted 1st look along with the regular people.  Everything comes down to promotion timeline.

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Maybe this will work for the rest of the AF, but for pilots that have a lucrative job without the BS just waiting for them, delaying promotion isn’t going to help retention.


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Does anyone that just wants to fly the line really care about the rank, or just the extra pay that comes with the (Lt Col) rank? Better flight pay or bonus options could make up the pay difference, and that's where the focus should be, particularly since the number of O-5s the AF can have is limited.

Though I guess the problem is that the AF isn't going to increase pilot pay (through flight pay or a pro pay), and the bonus has gotten worse and probably will continue on that path. Especially since 11M are now "100% manned" and 11Rs are "overmanned"...
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25 minutes ago, jazzdude said:

Does anyone that just wants to fly the line really care about the rank, or just the extra pay that comes with the (Lt Col) rank? Better flight pay or bonus options could make up the pay difference, and that's where the focus should be, particularly since the number of O-5s the AF can have is limited.

Though I guess the problem is that the AF isn't going to increase pilot pay (through flight pay or a pro pay), and the bonus has gotten worse and probably will continue on that path. Especially since 11M are now "100% manned" and 11Rs are "overmanned"...

I’m an 11M. I applied for a ADSC waiver to retire (prior-E)-Denied. Non-select for O-5, tasked with 6-month COVID deployment handing out vaccination information sheets. 

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Does anyone that just wants to fly the line really care about the rank, or just the extra pay that comes with the (Lt Col) rank?


Honestly for me the main driving force to try for Lt Col, was being able to retire at 20. I was deployed while a passed over pilot was recalled to separate. There was also a good dude, fellow squadron mate that also had separate. Both guys, 3 years away from the check of the month club. That 2011 debacle worried me, and I knew if I didn’t make O-5, there was no guarantee I’d be able to retire. Thankfully for me, after I was passed over, I was continued.


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Honestly for me the main driving force to try for Lt Col, was being able to retire at 20. I was deployed while a passed over pilot was recalled to separate. There was also a good dude, fellow squadron mate that also had separate. Both guys, 3 years away from the check of the month club. That 2011 debacle worried me, and I knew if I didn’t make O-5, there was no guarantee I’d be able to retire. Thankfully for me, after I was passed over, I was continued.


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Copy, that makes sense.
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13 hours ago, jazzdude said:

Does anyone that just wants to fly the line really care about the rank, or just the extra pay that comes with the (Lt Col) rank? Better flight pay or bonus options could make up the pay difference, and that's where the focus should be, particularly since the number of O-5s the AF can have is limited.

Though I guess the problem is that the AF isn't going to increase pilot pay (through flight pay or a pro pay), and the bonus has gotten worse and probably will continue on that path. Especially since 11M are now "100% manned" and 11Rs are "overmanned"...

A big part of it is getting told how valuable you are, how necessary to the force, how you are vital to national defense...then getting passed over.  The passing over shows you what the Air Force values, and it's not whatever you've been doing for the last 15+ years.  So if you've even a little on the fence, it's an added incentive to join an organization that DOES value what you do, and shows it through your pay and seniority numbers (the airlines) instead of staying in an organization that claims to value you but acts as if it does not.

The extra pay is nice, though.  For me, due to my ADSC for the bonus, it'll translate into an extra ~$800/month in retirement, or just shy of ~$10K a year, vs retiring as a major.

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Just looked at the LAF-I board stats. 3 APZ DP's (IDE Complete) were not selected (9/12 eligible), but 5 APZ P's (IDE complete) were selected (5/186 eligible).

Looking at all of the other boards, the same thing happened. So how does that make any sense at all? How does the board justify selecting any APZ P over any APZ DP, especially when they all have IDE complete?

That is actually a serious question, because, if a DP is supposed to be a significant identifier, especially for APZ folks, how do you promote people that weren't awarded a DP over those that were? 

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2 hours ago, 14N Guy said:

 how do you promote people that weren't awarded a DP over those that were? 

I am very far removed from these circles, and my only current contribution to the military is being a taxpayer.

That said, in the civvie world, when a promotion doesn’t make logical sense (not based on merit, etc), the usual answer seems to be based in meeting some diversity metric.

YMMV.

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3 hours ago, 14N Guy said:

Just looked at the LAF-I board stats. 3 APZ DP's (IDE Complete) were not selected (9/12 eligible), but 5 APZ P's (IDE complete) were selected (5/186 eligible).

Looking at all of the other boards, the same thing happened. So how does that make any sense at all? How does the board justify selecting any APZ P over any APZ DP, especially when they all have IDE complete?

That is actually a serious question, because, if a DP is supposed to be a significant identifier, especially for APZ folks, how do you promote people that weren't awarded a DP over those that were? 

At my base, we got zero DPs for this O-5 board. So, the flip side is how to you rank the #1 guy from a base who had zero chance of getting a DP vs someone from another base who got one? 
 

In this example, the #1 guy with a P did in fact get selected for O-5 this board.

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16 minutes ago, Bigred said:

At my base, we got zero DPs for this O-5 board. So, the flip side is how to you rank the #1 guy from a base who had zero chance of getting a DP vs someone from another base who got one? 
 

In this example, the #1 guy with a P did in fact get selected for O-5 this board.

Isn't that what the MLR is for? So individuals at units that don't have enough eligibles for a DP have a chance at getting a DP?

I get IPZ folks with a P getting selected, but I can't understand APZ folks with a DP not being selected over APZ folks with a P. It's all moot at this point, but it is just head scratching to me.

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