Russian Ukraine shenanigans

[tac airlifter]

Worthwhile analysis of the bridge strike; I did not realize it was detonated via suicide truck bomb: Link

This and NS2 sabotage are potentially pivotal incidents shaping the next few months. And nobody is taking credit and it’s not obvious who did it. Very strange.

[Prozac]

6 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

Worthwhile analysis of the bridge strike; I did not realize it was detonated via suicide truck bomb: Link

This and NS2 sabotage are potentially pivotal incidents shaping the next few months. And nobody is taking credit and it’s not obvious who did it. Very strange.

The Ukrainians knew this would royally piss off Putin. Better to leave things somewhat ambiguous than to invite his wrath. Looks like they got it anyway. Today’s missile strikes didn’t hit a single militarily significant target, instead hitting parks, pedestrian bridges, and playgrounds. Putin continues to do a great job recruiting pissed off Ukrainians who want nothing more than to kill untrained, poorly equipped, elderly Russian “soldiers” by the bushel. 

[GrndPndr]

22 hours ago, Prozac said:

The Ukrainians knew this would royally piss off Putin. Better to leave things somewhat ambiguous than to invite his wrath. Looks like they got it anyway. Today’s missile strikes didn’t hit a single militarily significant target, instead hitting parks, pedestrian bridges, and playgrounds. Putin continues to do a great job recruiting pissed off Ukrainians who want nothing more than to kill untrained, poorly equipped, elderly Russian “soldiers” by the bushel. 

Anyone care to comment about whether-or-not Russia is running low on expendables (not humans).  Maybe poking the bear (STS) works if he isn't being fed - eventually he'll run out of energy (and resources) to fight?

[Lawman]

Anyone care to comment about whether-or-not Russia is running low on expendables (not humans).  Maybe poking the bear (STS) works if he isn't being fed - eventually he'll run out of energy (and resources) to fight?

When you are actively shooting as much as 60k rounds of artillery a day, nobody currently has industrial capacity to maintain that.

Buying ordnance from North Korean stockpiles isn’t a sign you have this going well for you logistically.


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[ClearedHot]

On 10/8/2022 at 3:31 PM, ThreeHoler said:

NYT said truck bomb.

As per usual the NYT got it WRONG.  The bridge was actually attacked by a SOF team using a remote controlled boat that maneuvered a barge laden with a LOT of explosives into place under the bridge.  Like their cousins at the NYT, Russia was quick to blame a truck bomb and even named the driver. 

Good story and analysis here.  They even found the remote controlled boat afterwards.

 

[ThreeHoler]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-fsb-arrests-eight-crimea-bridge-blast-2022-10-12/

Russia still says truck bomb.

“The FSB said the explosive device was camouflaged in rolls of construction polyethylene film on 22 pallets with a total weight of 22.7 tonnes, and moved from Ukraine to Russia via Bulgaria, Georgia and Armenia.”

Did I think it was a truck bomb? Undecided at the time which is why I said “NYT said…” Now? Not likely, and also not as likely that Ukraine did it. The FSB release gives more credibility to Russia doing it themselves to justify increasing their attacks.


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[ClearedHot]

26 minutes ago, ThreeHoler said:

Russia still says truck bomb.

Did you watch the video?

[Lord Ratner]

I'm not an expert, but when I was watching the videos from the day of the explosion, it sure didn't look to me like the blast originated from the bridge.

[ecugringo]

Also looks like they timed it where a train was on that portion of the bridge.

[ClearedHot]

35 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

I'm not an expert, but when I was watching the videos from the day of the explosion, it sure didn't look to me like the blast originated from the bridge.

If you watch the new CCTV video you can see the nose of the barge as it comes under the bridge and detonates. 

In other news, Ukraine "claims" to have shot down four Russian Helicopters in 18 minutes - presumably Ka-52s.

[waveshaper]

If folks want to see some examples of the types of damage a surface detonated (on top of the bridge roadway) LVIED does to a bridge = see the Iraq War:

truck bomb destroys bridge in Iraq - Bing images

Edited October 12, 2022 by waveshaper

[ThreeHoler]

Also looks like they timed it where a train was on that portion of the bridge.

The train was supposedly stopped on the bridge in violation of normal transport rules.

[ecugringo]

1 hour ago, ThreeHoler said:

 

The train was supposedly stopped on the bridge in violation of normal transport rules.

 

interesting.  It looked like tanker cars which most likely would have fuel and had they known the train schedule and timed it that well....that is some good intel.

[Danger41]

5 hours ago, ecugringo said:

interesting.  It looked like tanker cars which most likely would have fuel and had they known the train schedule and timed it that well....that is some good intel.

Slides were in Times New Roman and not Calibri so it was destined for success.

[StoleIt]

Looks like lead gets nicked on the second one.

 

Edited October 13, 2022 by StoleIt

[Clark Griswold]

Zeihan analysis on Kerch Bridge bombing impacts

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[McJay Pilot]

Solved the mystery of crop circles!

 

[GrndPndr]

Just not a good look...

 

[McJay Pilot]

5 hours ago, GrndPndr said:

Just not a good look...

 

Thankfully Ivan was able to spare the innocent field nearby to hit the apartment complex.

[DirkDiggler]

14 hours ago, McJay Pilot said:

Thankfully Ivan was able to spare the innocent field nearby to hit the apartment complex.

On a positive note that’s one less Su-34 for the Ukrainians to worry about!

[ClearedHot]

Drone V Drone Air to Air.

 

[uhhello]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

Drone V Drone Air to Air.

 

That didn’t come from the drone though.  There is another video out there where the drone rams the other.  

[ClearedHot]

24 minutes ago, uhhello said:

That didn’t come from the drone though.  There is another video out there where the drone rams the other.  

Still an air to air kill right? 

Whatever hit it was moving fast, at first I thought it might have been something from the gorund but it looks like a flat trajectory.

[uhhello]

1 minute ago, ClearedHot said:

Still an air to air kill right? 

Whatever hit it was moving fast, at first I thought it might have been something from the gorund but it looks like a flat trajectory.

There was a thread over on reddit about it.  Consensus was ground to air kill

 

[FourFans]

42 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Still an air to air kill right? 

Whatever hit it was moving fast, at first I thought it might have been something from the ground but it looks like a flat trajectory.

The glint off something at the tree road intersection, a firing spot with 3 escape routes, seems a logical launching point for whatever smoked this thing.  What's interesting is that whatever hit it was smokeless until engagement...similar to a shaped charge.  

Yeah, no western influence to see here.  Move along.

I'm just a drone, tracking drone killed by another drone...