Stop Loss Cometh

[El-Fist]

Not going to happen. No need.

Hate to admit it but he's probably right. I see a lot of dudes stomping around saying they are done and getting out as soon as they possibly can. Once that opportunity to depart comes up, many choke and realize it's not an easy decision to let go of all the steady things that come with that AD teet. Unless people really do start talking with their feet, I think it will be business as usual.

There will likely be some knee jerk incentives thrown out there, and perhaps some shuffling folks around for a bit but I think a stop loss across the 11X is highly unlikely.

[Karl Hungus]

The resulting litigation will be epic.

Not only that, but lots of folks screaming bloody murder to the NY Times, 60 Minutes, etc. If there's anything Big Blue hates more than litigation, it's negative publicity.

[ClearedHot]

Not going to happen. No need.

Disagree...General Chang is going to argue their are some real caveats to the so called shortage. Right now the seniors are publicly stating we have a shortage of 200+ fighter pilots that will grow to 700+ in the out years. What they aren't telling you is that ACC actually has the inventory to fill all the available fighter cockpits, what they don't have is the inventory to fill the available cockpist AND fill the staffs. Despite their bluster about flying, the fighter guys truly do care about the staff. Their concern is twofold...first, if you don't have a fighter guy in a fighter staff slot they fear poor decisions will be made by uniformed people...you need a fighter guy to make informed decisions about the fighter community...sounds reasonable. The real reason they care is far less altruistic, officer development. Like it or not you must send your fast movers to the staff at some point so they show depth and breath and can be competitive for BPZ and such...the senior fighter folks have a real fear they will not develop enough folks to reach the GO ranks and thus, maintain control of the Air Force.

What the General Chang's don't want to account for is the accuracy of the forecast models and current inventory management practices. If the personnel types were worth a damn we would not be in this position...in reality we have mismanaged pilot inventory for nearly 30 years...look back to Banking, ReCAT, UPT direct to RPA, TAMI 21...there are numerous egregious examples through the years. There is a survey held close by the seniors that shows real fatigue in the force, and a building resentment, so while I agree there will be folks that "chicken out", there is a real possibility the projections are wrong. I would look at two factors in the next 12-18 months that will predict what is going to happen. First, how many pilots do the bigs hire and do they keep a steady state of recruitment. Many companies including the airlines are hoarding cash and getting as much productivity out of their employees as possible. They are not taking chances on growth...but if they do and airlines like Delta and Fedex hire the rumored 60 a month to start then settle to 30 a month each, there will be a lot of pressure placed on the demand side. In some ways the FAA compounded the problem by raising the ATP requirement to 1500 hours, seriously shrinking the pool of direct civilian hires. The other factor is the B Scale...if the demand does begin to stress the supply I would look to see how long short the B Scale gets...if it remains at all...I guess time will tell.

Not only that, but lots of folks screaming bloody murder to the NY Times, 60 Minutes, etc. If there's anything Big Blue hates more than litigation, it's negative publicity.

I disagree, DoD and USAF have at times shown they could care less about publicity, when the problem becomes severe as some think it will, they will do whatever it takes in the name of "National Security". Realistically the only thing that will stop it if the conditions come to fruition is Congress.

Anyway, what do I know, I'm just and old guy.

Edited August 3, 2013 by ClearedHot

[HU&W]

So, what's the fix? Stop loss? Recall previous fighter guys from RPA's, white jet, ALO, etc? Send former T38 studs from the 'cockpit shortage' years to IFF? Increase UPT throughput? Continuation incentives?

Edited August 3, 2013 by HU&W

[Hacker]

The problem right now with fighter staff billets is that Big Blue is only putting shiny pennies in them -- in-res grads, graduated SQ/CCs, etc. They're ridiculously under-manned as is, and their bar for entry makes it an even smaller circle of "acceptable" people that can fill them.

[FallingOsh]

It's the cheapest fighter to operate per hour and is loved by ground commanders around the world. Of course we'll get rid of it.

[Jaded]

There is a survey held close by the seniors that shows real fatigue in the force, and a building resentment...

Care to elaborate? Is it just fighter pilots or the force in general?

[pawnman]

Not going to happen. No need.

Yeah, we have that huge glut of officers, right?

The problem right now with fighter staff billets is that Big Blue is only putting shiny pennies in them -- in-res grads, graduated SQ/CCs, etc. They're ridiculously under-manned as is, and their bar for entry makes it an even smaller circle of "acceptable" people that can fill them.

Isn't manning the reason we only send the shiny pennies? Because we can't afford to lose the guys to send the medium-burners in addition to the fast-burners?

[ChiefSlapahoe]

So, what's the fix? Stop loss? Recall previous fighter guys from RPA's, white jet, ALO, etc? Send former T38 studs from the 'cockpit shortage' years to IFF? Increase UPT throughput? Continuation incentives?

You take that voodoo magic you used to come up with those ideas and git' on out o'here! ...I said git! Ideas like that will never work cause they use that term....what's it called again? Common sense and initiative from AFPC?

[BFM this]

So, what's the fix? Stop loss? Recall previous fighter guys from RPA's, white jet, ALO, etc? Send former T38 studs from the 'cockpit shortage' years to IFF? Increase UPT throughput? Continuation incentives?

Airstaff needs to commit to a course of action, one way or another. Right now they want to straddle the fence: commoditizing the pilot group on one hand (bonus), and paying lip service to the actual practices that they should have been doing for, as CH rightly pointed out, over three decades. The second option is probably more costly, imo.

If the commoditization route is chosen, fine: stop pulling the punch then. The bonus is woefully under priced at this point, and it won't come close to slowing the coming problem. But it allows the slide builders to say "look at how much money we've thrown at the problem!". It is well below current market rates for the pilot group as a whole, and only draws, as has been endlessly pointed out in these threads, those who "were going to stay anyway". GC, sorry, but if you want to stick to this gameplan, no, I will not be grateful. If you really want to pay for my comitment, you are going to have to pay the market price. Right now, the ACP doesn't even come close to, say, what we pay dentists. The most dangerous threat to this whole program isn't the Airlines, it's the Pilot that truly understands his/her broader options as they are going into their peak career earning period.

The route that I would prefer, but would cost more in some senses, would be for Airstaff and AFPC to, well, do their fucking job. There is just no justification for QOL to suck this badly. The failed manning programs as CH listed. Shiny pennies that do 4+ ops tours while ALOs, white jets, and RPAs are told "sorry, there probably won't be a TX on the other side". Guess what: those marathon ops players are getting out because you've burned them out. Ironically, the folks that were told that their fate was sealed are bailing as well. You have failed to practice the balance and broadening that is so blithely painted within the officer progression pages on AFPC, and now you're reaping what you've sown.

Right now, dudes are being non-vol'd to Luke and DM. And at least on the Hawg TX side, guys are going to the notch. TX is the new RPA. Why? Hoss already pointed out one reason: everyone thinks that the boneyard push started in the late 80's is going to finish it's run in the next few years. Another is QOL. Why go back to a jet that is low hanging fruit for stupid shit like sequestration, and 12-14 hour days chasing busy work projects, inspections, and whatever else the WG/CC wants done to secure his star. There isn't even a token attempt to practice time budgeting above the squadron level. If the boss thinks it up, 69 man hours per week are dedicated for the next fiscal quarter just to generate the new slide for the weekly standup. Wanted to take leave? Sorry, another wing exercise just showed up on the schedule (though, in fairness, efforts have been made to curb the old ORI/UCI madness).

Do we really need yet another "Dear Boss" letter?

Edited August 3, 2013 by BFM this

[PirateAF]

This was posted at a recent OBAP job fair (MIA) recap on APC...I know these are what recruiters for the Airlines are telling folks, but interesting nonetheless. Lot of opening the floodgate talk.

"I just returned from obap. It was my first job fair, and coming from a military background I had no clue what to expect. I arrived Wednesday about 2pm. Both Delta and United had 2-3 hour lines. The rest of the vendors, including US Airways, Jet Blue, and Fed Ex, had no line.

I waited at Delta and had about a ten minute mini interview. They took notes on the resume, asked questions, etc. Their basic run down was hiring next year, likely indefinitely, but a lot would be flows.

At US Airways, they just took your email address down to log you in, expressed their frustrations at the selection process, then sort of have us interview advice... Ie personality driven, demonstrate basic knowledge of flying (referencing military or your company specific policies ok for situational questions) and then said indefinite hiring with little to no pause for the merger.

I got a pretty generic yeah you're qualified from Jet Blue and to just keep applying.

Fed Ex was nice but said no hiring quite right now.

I came back the second day and obap was a ghost town. No lines. I chatted with American. They would not take resumes but were extremely upbeat about absolutely massive hiring without stopping and an app window opening very soon with tbd vendor and interview style. Little to no pause for the merger.

United was also extremely positive and I got lucky enough to spend ten minutes or so with the chief of pilot hiring in Houston. Super nice guy who just asked basic questions, like why would you quit a full time guard job to work here. United handed out a fact sheet basically restating the numbers you see on here. 250 or so through this year depending on recalls then the flood gates open.

My impression is that delta and united were there to hire and the others were there to support a good event.

Spirit was the only legit carrier not present. I did not stop by southwest, Alaska, or ups but they had booths along with Walmart, the navy, flight safety, and border patrol."

[Grady]

I would look at two factors in the next 12-18 months that will predict what is going to happen. First, how many pilots do the bigs hire and do they keep a steady state of recruitment. Many companies including the airlines are hoarding cash and getting as much productivity out of their employees as possible. They are not taking chances on growth...but if they do and airlines like Delta and Fedex hire the rumored 60 a month to start then settle to 30 a month each, there will be a lot of pressure placed on the demand side. In some ways the FAA compounded the problem by raising the ATP requirement to 1500 hours, seriously shrinking the pool of direct civilian hires. The other factor is the B Scale...if the demand does begin to stress the supply I would look to see how long short the B Scale gets...if it remains at all...I guess time will tell.

Yes and No...

You are correct that Major airlines are cautious to grow and demanding greater productivity out of their employess by getting better utilization out of reserves, using PBS, and other contract provisions. That's why Delta has only hired 305 in the last 5 years and at times stated that they were overstaffed. 157 out of 305 were flow throughs from Compass and Mesaba. There are still around 400 Compass and Mesaba pilots just waiting on a class date. They all can't flow at once, but with Delta projecting 300 new hires by the end of 2014, 150ish will be flow throughs. In other words, it's going to be highly competitive for the next 3-4 years everywhere except the regionals. This mythical pilot shortage is really just a RJ FO shortage for the next 3-4 years. Having been at a regional for 6 years, I've talked to some of our pilot recruiters who are surprised at the number of former active duty pilots that are applying to regionals because they are not getting the competitive jobs. While there will be a few that are fortunate enough to make a seemless transition to the majors, in the short-term most will face the need for currency and may have to take a RJ FO job. As far as the 1500hr rule, that will only effect the regionals in the next 3-4 years...the good jobs will be competitive for some time to come.

Many of the AD pilots I've talked to have a skewed perspective on their civilian job prospects. They don't seem to understand that they are competing against guys that are flying large RJs on major routes that are well adjusted to flying in the 121 environment. The distinct military advantage is not as great as it was in the late 90s when mil pilots were competing against jetstream and beech 1900 pilots. Management at the Legacy carriers are already talking of ways to reduce the cost of senior RJ CAs by offering a guaranteed future at the mainline carrier, which means fewer available seats to mil pilots. Scott Kirby at US Airways believes the way to mitigate a pilot shortage at the regionals is to offer a "low-paid intership" with a timely and guaranteed future seat at mainline. If the economy doesn't get any worse, 2017 will be the year for the beginning of brisk hiring...until then good luck.

[General Chang]

Yes and No...

You are correct that Major airlines are cautious to grow and demanding greater productivity out of their employess by getting better utilization out of reserves, using PBS, and other contract provisions. That's why Delta has only hired 305 in the last 5 years and at times stated that they were overstaffed. 157 out of 305 were flow throughs from Compass and Mesaba. There are still around 400 Compass and Mesaba pilots just waiting on a class date. They all can't flow at once, but with Delta projecting 300 new hires by the end of 2014, 150ish will be flow throughs. In other words, it's going to be highly competitive for the next 3-4 years everywhere except the regionals. This mythical pilot shortage is really just a RJ FO shortage for the next 3-4 years. Having been at a regional for 6 years, I've talked to some of our pilot recruiters who are surprised at the number of former active duty pilots that are applying to regionals because they are not getting the competitive jobs. While there will be a few that are fortunate enough to make a seemless transition to the majors, in the short-term most will face the need for currency and may have to take a RJ FO job. As far as the 1500hr rule, that will only effect the regionals in the next 3-4 years...the good jobs will be competitive for some time to come.

Many of the AD pilots I've talked to have a skewed perspective on their civilian job prospects. They don't seem to understand that they are competing against guys that are flying large RJs on major routes that are well adjusted to flying in the 121 environment. The distinct military advantage is not as great as it was in the late 90s when mil pilots were competing against jetstream and beech 1900 pilots. Management at the Legacy carriers are already talking of ways to reduce the cost of senior RJ CAs by offering a guaranteed future at the mainline carrier, which means fewer available seats to mil pilots. Scott Kirby at US Airways believes the way to mitigate a pilot shortage at the regionals is to offer a "low-paid intership" with a timely and guaranteed future seat at mainline. If the economy doesn't get any worse, 2017 will be the year for the beginning of brisk hiring...until then good luck.

Concur at P-gon. Like I said, senior leaders are not worried in the slightest (reference pilot bonus staying the same annually). A few disgruntled pilots on BODN does not a crisis make. Mark my words- pilots will stick around for the assurance of great compensation and a decent bonus program. As I've said all along, there are no studies to indicate even the hint of a troubling exodus of pilots to the airlines until 2017 earliest, if ever.

You do not need to fear for the future of your beloved Air Force...it is in good hands.

[HeloDude]

Concur at P-gon. Like I said, senior leaders are not worried in the slightest (reference pilot bonus staying the same annually). A few disgruntled pilots on BODN does not a crisis make. Mark my words- pilots will stick around for the assurance of great compensation and a decent bonus program. As I've said all along, there are no studies to indicate even the hint of a troubling exodus of pilots to the airlines until 2017 earliest, if ever.

You do not need to fear for the future of your beloved Air Force...it is in good hands.

The Bonus did not same the same...11F's were offered a much different deal than they were years past. I wouldn't be surprised if that crosses into other communities next year.

And as for there not being a 'crisis'...I have a feeling you would have said the same thing in the mid 90's when they were offering nearly all pilots a bonus to 20 years and even beyond. You are fooling yourself if you don't think there are manning/retention issues amongst the rated community. There's a reason pilots get a bonus, fighter guys get an even larger bonus, and most Navs no longer get any sort of bonus.

[di1630]

You do not need to fear for the future of your beloved Air Force...it is in good hands.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I'll sit back with my $225K and watch the shitshow awesome leadership continue.

[Champ Kind]

Who was that Iraqi spin artist getting all the comical air time at the beginning of OIF saying that the Americans were being pushed back while there was simultaneous footage of the coalition advance in the same screen?

GC reminds me of that guy.

[LookieRookie]

[Royal]

Who was that Iraqi spin artist getting all the comical air time at the beginning of OIF saying that the Americans were being pushed back while there was simultaneous footage of the coalition advance in the same screen?

GC reminds me of that guy.

Baghdad Bob!

[xaarman]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Saeed_al-Sahhaf#Post-war_life

Seems to be doing alright

[Magnum]

Concur at P-gon. Like I said, senior leaders are not worried in the slightest (reference pilot bonus staying the same annually).

Proof that our senior leaders are idiots. Or at least badly misinformed. The airlines isn't the only industry hiring pilots. So just recently the F-16 porch had to non-vol 8 dudes out of cycle to Kunsan and lost a couple dudes from 7 day opt because of it. What does that tell you?

The only reason the USAF is in good hands is because there are awesome dudes / dudettes busting their asses to get the J-O-B done regardless of all the B.S.

You are out of touch.

[Fuzz]

The only reason the USAF is in good hands is because there are awesome dudes / dudettes busting their asses to get the J-O-B done regardless of all the B.S.

You are out of touch.

Don't worry about that did you get a copy of the latest WG/CC OPR/EPR writing guide???

[Hacker]

The Bonus did not same the same...11F's were offered a much different deal than they were years past.

He just meant that it stayed at $25K per year, which is the same as it has been for over a decade. All that changed were the options and durations.

[General Chang]

He just meant that it stayed at $25K per year, which is the same as it has been for over a decade. All that changed were the options and durations.

Thank you Hacker...at least someone on here reads my full post.

"The Bonus did not same the same...11F's were offered a much different deal than they were years past. I wouldn't be surprised if that crosses into other communities next year."

Helodude, did you miss the word "annually" in your haste to disagree? I know you are hoping beyond all hope that -11Hs will be included in the fighter plan next year.......not going to happen.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I'll sit back with my $225K and watch the shitshow awesome leadership continue.

See? Even the "disgruntled majority" (so-called) are taking the bonus. I rest my case.

Have a great Air Force week.

[El-Fist]

You do not need to fear for the future of your beloved Air Force...it is in good hands.

The same good hands that ran a SERB, RIF, and a voluntary recall to AD within the same year?

Concur at P-gon. Like I said, senior leaders are not worried in the slightest (reference pilot bonus staying the same annually). A few disgruntled pilots on BODN does not a crisis make.

That's the problem. Have you or "P-gon" senior "in-chargers" spent any time in an ops squadron recently? I am thinking no, otherwise you wouldn't have said anything this ridiculous. This goes much further than your information based on hypothetical data you P-gon folks vomit on spreadsheets and call it gospel; and it's more than a few dudes bitching on BODN. A lot of the stuff you read on here is a pretty good representation of what you would hear on a larger scale in the squadrons.

Sure, I don't really buy the mass exodus or massive airline boom either. Believe it or not, pilots look outside the airlines for jobs. There are some pretty lucrative opportunities out there if you look in the right places, or if you have the motivation and drive to work for yourself... Bottom line, there may not be a massive exodus, but I think you are going to many more high quality dudes/duddets saying "FU" and taking the 7-day opt and getting out when an RPA or exec "opportunities" come up. It will eventually turn in to a manning problem and that "senior leaders not being worried in the slightest" will turn into a knee-jerk shit storm... Like having a simultaneous SERB, RIF, and voluntary recall to active duty...

Oh, and Stop Loss...

Edited August 5, 2013 by El-Fist

[BitteEinBit]

Sounds good! Looks like the Air Force has this all figured out! Close the thread and stop talking about pilot shortages that don't exist!

I agree, probably no mass exodus any time soon...or even in 2017, but I will predict that the pilot exodus will be larger than the Air Force is anticipating. Regardless of what is on "the pentagon" power point slides, the airline aviation industry is hiring worldwide. Making an assumption about rated officer intentions based on everyone jumping ship to go to the "majors" (domestic) is pretty short sighted. There is a much larger hiring picture out there, and they are looking for bubbas with that worldwide flying experience the 11X glut has to offer.