I’ll just say it - a lot of people had these same thoughts when younger, but they won’t admit it out loud while simultaneously throwing out “officer first.” They’re correct in that statement, but it’s not so black and white, and that’s OK. I understand where you’re at/coming from.
I won’t rehash in detail, as Oface is correct about a lot of info in the “archives,” but big pic…
AD - If looking at OTS route, you can decline any “offer,” so you’re not stuck. There’s a lot more details on that you’ll have to go read yourself. ROTC/USAFA is not a guarantee, but ultimately my opinion is those who should get a pilot slot typically do, with minor exceptions.
ANG/AFRC - “Guaranteed,” but you have to get hired. That is a very competitive process and definitely risk of not making it. Go read about it.
My opinion - Try for ANG, AFRC, AD in that order. Once you’re getting “old” on the interview circuit, consider putting your hat into the AD ring. Regardless of which component you may go to, be good with being a non-flying officer for at least 4 years, as there’s lots of hurdles to stumble over on your way to being a MR wingman or co-pilot.