Alright... I'll come out of retirement for this one... been watching the discussion for awhile now, so I guess it's time to weigh in.
Be careful where you get your sources from-- the "anonymous Hog Driver" quoted by The Aviationist in the 1945 article is a long-time F-16 pilot who only recently converted to the A-10... and is a big advocate of a particular unit converting back to Vipers in the near future.
The discussion of the gun seems shocking to anyone who's never flown the A-10... ermahgerd.... you mean it's not good against armor in the face?
As Paul Harvey so eloquently put it... and now, for the rest of the story...
The study referenced here and many other places is based on the LAVP (lot acceptance verification program) that began in 1975. The study was written in 1979, but the bulk of LAVP occurred between 1978 and 1980. Why does that matter? Because the systems on board the A-10 at that time were DRASTICALLY different than what is on the aircraft now. The aircraft at that time were non-LASTE (Low Altitude Safety and Targeting Enhancement), meaning that the pilots essentially employed iron sights without the benefit of PAC (precision attitude control, which essentially ”locks” the primary flight controls to hold the pipper on the aimpoint and get better bullet density). In other words, the system has gotten BETTER over the years. MUCH better. Some quotes from the test: “Only 93 passes were made in high-rate due to restrictions; and all passes after November 1979 were further limited to low-rate, 1 second bursts. Although not ideal for bullet density, all ammunition fired for LAVP was pure API, not combat mix.” In other words, the results were limited by the test parameters of the time. Even given those constraints, “Of first importance, all the Pk’s were HIGHER than expected; and the low-angle were comparable to the high angle.” A final key note relates to the non-LASTE nature of the test: ”hits usually did not occur after the 25th round fired.” That’s a situation that has been rectified with modern upgrades to the airframe. As the text follows, “ LASTE enables burst length and density to INCREASE through the use of a constantly computed impact point (CCIP) and PAC“. In other words, the gun was good back then, it’s even better now.
For the "shocking" part... ALL Hog Drivers are taught that we don't shoot tanks in the face if we can avoid it-- that's where the machines are designed to be the most effective in terms of armor, so naturally we train to hit them from the side, top, or rear. You don't always get that option in combat, so M or F kills are just as acceptable-- any EFFECT that degrades the enemy's ability to fight is a positive step in combat. If you think that Pk of 1.0 is widespread, you're watching too many movies and not spending enough time in the vault.
Here's another kicker: the gun isn't the first choice against armor for many Hog Drivers. Gasp! The maverick missile, which was designed simultaneously with the A-X program as a PRIMARY munition for the new A-X, provides much better effects, some standoff, and precision capability. Given the right circumstances and approval, the Hog can sling six of those, rifling three on a single pass. Think about that-- a PLATOON or armor, completely wiped out by a single Hog on two passes. A 4 ship can render a battalion of armor combat non-effective on 2 passes with that loadout, and we haven't even gone to the gun yet.
Now, back to the original discussion of the thread. Could the A-10 survive and be effective in Ukraine?
Absolutely.
In American hands, in the American way of major combat ops.
Turns out, the Hog community has been training side by side with every aspect of the USAF in major exercises for the last 40 years. If the Hog was truly an unsurvivable liability as proven in every Red Flag and ME (now WSINT) vul, you bet your ass that Corporate Blue would have trotted those stats out immediately. I can recall many a RF vul thinking to myself as a Sandy One... "gawddamn... I'd have my hands full after this round..."
... and none of them were Hogs.
Our way of fighting is an overwhelming, integrated approach to these kind of operations. Hogs might be slower, so we launch first, land last, and often times can make it happen without siphoning off tanker gas that the other guys need.
If you haven't read many of the open-source articles written by some Hog Drivers that occasionally pop up, then you may not be familiar with the applications currently being explored out west-- adding SDB (16 per jet), MALD, and potentially JASSM to the Hog makes it an incredible support asset that makes 5th Gen even more lethal-- freeing them up to do their thing while the swine saturates the battlefield.
And the kicker is that even once the Hog launches all that "new" stuff, depending on the loadout, she still has enough weapons to engage up to 20 targets.
Each.
Now, if you send the Hogs into a fight alone, with less-than-optimum weapons, without SA, without SEAD (neither side has dedicated SEAD/DEAD assets), without effective tactics (both sides are, shall we say, less than impressive), and without training (how long does it take to train up ANY pilot to this level of warfare), then the results will be predictable.
And I'll throw it out here since it's been floated on other sites: you send the Ukrainians ANY of our fighters, give them minimal time to get fam'd with it, maybe don't provide them the best weapons we have, and the results will be the same-- disaster. Tactics, training, and operational integration are key to major combat ops. They don't have it, so it really doesn't matter WHAT weapon you put in their inventory.