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7 minutes ago, Jetpilot said:

Isn’t the current O-5 promotee list finishing up this month?  

Negative.  The balance of the list gets promoted 1October.  The 2020 board results should start promoting their first traunch of selects 1Nov2020.  I seriously wonder what the hold-up is.  I know this list is without precedent because it is sequenced by order of merit with regard to your line number, but that should've been resolved before the list started to make its way through the coordinating authorities.  End of September should've been plenty of time.  

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Yeah, my thought too. The 22 Jul date was a month old when it finally populated in the tracker. 
 
My CC is still holding on to the end of September. 🤷‍♂️

My J1 RUMINT source said today that the delay is due to GOs going round-round about the lineup of the pin-on order since the BTZ is gone and they went to this new “merit-based” package score ranking. All about the bright/shinies and who goes first.
And he added the expectation of mid-October.


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My J1 RUMINT source said today that the delay is due to GOs going round-round about the lineup of the pin-on order since the BTZ is gone and they went to this new “merit-based” package score ranking. All about the bright/shinies and who goes first.
And he added the expectation of mid-October.


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That makes zero sense, so you’re probably right. Realistically, it doesn’t matter if you’re #1 or #69 and make it in the same month/increment.


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7 hours ago, VariEze said:


My J1 RUMINT source said today that the delay is due to GOs going round-round about the lineup of the pin-on order since the BTZ is gone and they went to this new “merit-based” package score ranking. All about the bright/shinies and who goes first.
And he added the expectation of mid-October.


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They didn't figure out order of merit at the board?  Isn't that how they figure out who gets promoted in the first place?

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8 hours ago, VariEze said:


My J1 RUMINT source said today that the delay is due to GOs going round-round about the lineup of the pin-on order since the BTZ is gone and they went to this new “merit-based” package score ranking. All about the bright/shinies and who goes first.
And he added the expectation of mid-October.


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That doesn't make much sense since that should've happened during the board, and definitely before it hit the SECAF level. The board instructions said that some officers may be moved up in the order but in reality, that should only affect maybe 1-2% of the list. Anything beyond that really doesn't matter. 

Your J1 doesn't seem to have the best gouge anyhow. Didn't you post a while back that the J1 had said the release would be end of August? 

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1 hour ago, BigWing said:

That doesn't make much sense since that should've happened during the board, and definitely before it hit the SECAF level. The board instructions said that some officers may be moved up in the order but in reality, that should only affect maybe 1-2% of the list. Anything beyond that really doesn't matter. 

Your J1 doesn't seem to have the best gouge anyhow. Didn't you post a while back that the J1 had said the release would be end of August? 

I am somewhat curious how they are going to reconcile the pin-on order across all of the categories.

But, somewhat related, our DT came out yesterday and said they were trying to de-emphasize records and re-emphasize performance (they dodged on the question asking about records reflecting performance). So I’m not convinced any AF senior leaders have any idea about what they are trying to do.

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14 minutes ago, 14N Guy said:

I am somewhat curious how they are going to reconcile the pin-on order across all of the categories.

But, somewhat related, our DT came out yesterday and said they were trying to de-emphasize records and re-emphasize performance (they dodged on the question asking about records reflecting performance). So I’m not convinced any AF senior leaders have any idea about what they are trying to do.

If I had to guess I'd say that date of rank will still reign supreme for pin on dates so that would solve most of the pin on rank order across the categories. I would be really surprised if they apply merit based order the entire list and suspect that it will just be a few top performers that get bumped to the front of the line. Also keep in mind that the 06 year group is in an interesting place this board. Our "best and brightest" would already have been picked up BPZ during the last two boards, so who would they be pushing to the front this time around anyway? IDE in-res grads? Those who just missed the cut BPZ last time around? I think rank order will become more of a factor in future years with year groups that didn't have the opportunity to have their best promoted BPZ. 

I also want to add that I recognize it's not always the best and brightest who make it BPZ and that not all of those who are truly the best make it BPZ.

As far as the delay goes, it's hard to tell if there even is a delay beyond what could be expected when a lot of people working the process are probably teleworking. With updates being announced over a month after they happened (looking at you 22 July SECAF date posted in late August), who knows where it really is. While it's fun to be the guy "in the know," rumint is just that, rumors. 

Edited by BigWing
Changed rank order to merit order
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2 hours ago, 14N Guy said:

I am somewhat curious how they are going to reconcile the pin-on order across all of the categories.

But, somewhat related, our DT came out yesterday and said they were trying to de-emphasize records and re-emphasize performance (they dodged on the question asking about records reflecting performance). So I’m not convinced any AF senior leaders have any idea about what they are trying to do.

De-emphasizing records ans re-emphasizing performance literally is how we reach the singularity. All kidding aside, what the hell does that even mean?? How does a board emphasize performance when they literally only have access to records. 
 

And please know all my rage is directed against the system. 

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2 hours ago, BigWing said:

If I had to guess I'd say that date of rank will still reign supreme for pin on dates so that would solve most of the pin on rank order across the categories. I would be really surprised if they apply merit based order the entire list and suspect that it will just be a few top performers that get bumped to the front of the line. Also keep in mind that the 06 year group is in an interesting place this board. Our "best and brightest" would already have been picked up BPZ during the last two boards, so who would they be pushing to the front this time around anyway? IDE in-res grads? Those who just missed the cut BPZ last time around? I think rank order will become more of a factor in future years with year groups that didn't have the opportunity to have their best promoted BPZ. 

I also want to add that I recognize it's not always the best and brightest who make it BPZ and that not all of those who are truly the best make it BPZ.

As far as the delay goes, it's hard to tell if there even is a delay beyond what could be expected when a lot of people working the process are probably teleworking. With updates being announced over a month after they happened (looking at you 22 July SECAF date posted in late August), who knows where it really is. While it's fun to be the guy "in the know," rumint is just that, rumors. 

BPZ is like top 1-2%.  I’m sure there are many 06ers in the 3-10% cut line that they are career monitoring.

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1 hour ago, dream big said:

BPZ is like top 1-2%.  I’m sure there are many 06ers in the 3-10% cut line that they are career monitoring.

Fair enough, you're probably right about that. I guess the point I was trying to make in response to 14N Guy's comment about pin on order across the categories is that the number of people who it makes sense to move up in the order is probably small enough that it shouldn't cause any major issues between the different categories. Even if 10% from the overall selects are moved to the top of the list, most of those people would pin on during the first month with a few in the second month. Assuming that it doesn't really matter to merit order in the 11% to the end of the list (or for the sake of discussion we can just call it anyone who isn't being actively career monitored), I don't see it causing any huge fights between the different competitive categories. 

To your point about those whose careers are being monitored being more likely to be merit ordered, I don't even see how the boards would be able to merit order anyone beyond that without it taking a huge amount of time. The scoring system just doesn't really offer a ton of granularity to differentiate the majority easily. 

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You mean they're debating subtle numbers (promo board OOM) which are REAL feedback!?  And delaying, thus not giving, useful feedback. No way, pfft! Patience is what Big Blue demands without saying, patience and trust. Which is exactly what people cautiously grant or no.

Side question: if a person meets a supplemental promo board and gets picked up, what is their line number/OOM? And hence, what is their back pay?

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The annoying part, if it is the reordering that’s delaying it, is that other services have already implemented the process without any issues like this.
Anyone know what the other services are doing with promotions? My understanding was that the AF traditionally tends to promote faster and with higher opportunity (for the FGO ranks), so the recent changes to promotions affected us more.

My interaction with both navy and army peers was that they were much more concerned about making O-4, and the army O-4s were concerned about making O-5. It doesn't sound like the other services continue passed over officers like we do either, especially the army. On the other hand, as an AF pilot, retirement send pretty much achievable as long as you don't elect to separate.
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6 hours ago, jazzdude said:

Anyone know what the other services are doing with promotions? My understanding was that the AF traditionally tends to promote faster and with higher opportunity (for the FGO ranks), so the recent changes to promotions affected us more.

My interaction with both navy and army peers was that they were much more concerned about making O-4, and the army O-4s were concerned about making O-5. It doesn't sound like the other services continue passed over officers like we do either, especially the army. On the other hand, as an AF pilot, retirement send pretty much achievable as long as you don't elect to separate.

Can't speak for the Army, but in the Navy it was virtually unheard of to promote BTZ. About 10 years ago there was ~5 guys that did select BTZ to O-4 and they all struggled and most failed to make the subsequent rank. I think there was 1 dude last year that was BTZ to O-4, so it's rare.

Making O-4 is the goal simply to be able to retire, the Navy has for years let O-4s get to 20.

For comparison, last year the Navy promoted ITZ at about 70% to O-4 and about 60% to O-5.

My understanding of the merit based reordering is that the decision on who goes where was made at the board. If Generals are bickering now about who goes where that's just absurd. Not saying it's not happening, it just defeats the intent of the FY-18 NDAA that authorized it.


*Edit to add that my info is for pilots. 

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3 hours ago, Bigred said:

Can't speak for the Army, but in the Navy it was virtually unheard of to promote BTZ. About 10 years ago there was ~5 guys that did select BTZ to O-4 and they all struggled and most failed to make the subsequent rank. I think there was 1 dude last year that was BTZ to O-4, so it's rare.

Making O-4 is the goal simply to be able to retire, the Navy has for years let O-4s get to 20.

For comparison, last year the Navy promoted ITZ at about 70% to O-4 and about 60% to O-5.

My understanding of the merit based reordering is that the decision on who goes where was made at the board. If Generals are bickering now about who goes where that's just absurd. Not saying it's not happening, it just defeats the intent of the FY-18 NDAA that authorized it.

 

 

The proposed FY21 NDAA takes it a step further, striking the "may" prioritize promotion lists based on merit and replacing it with "shall."

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Can't speak for the Army, but in the Navy it was virtually unheard of to promote BTZ. About 10 years ago there was ~5 guys that did select BTZ to O-4 and they all struggled and most failed to make the subsequent rank. I think there was 1 dude last year that was BTZ to O-4, so it's rare.
Making O-4 is the goal simply to be able to retire, the Navy has for years let O-4s get to 20.
For comparison, last year the Navy promoted ITZ at about 70% to O-4 and about 60% to O-5.
My understanding of the merit based reordering is that the decision on who goes where was made at the board. If Generals are bickering now about who goes where that's just absurd. Not saying it's not happening, it just defeats the intent of the FY-18 NDAA that authorized it.

*Edit to add that my info is for pilots. 


Okay, that jives with my understanding for the naval aviators I knew/worked with. Thanks

For as messed up as the AF can be, I'm glad I'm here vs another service (from an "opportunity to get to retirement" perspective. Also, flying is awesome)
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On 9/12/2020 at 1:27 AM, CaptainMorgan said:


That makes zero sense, so you’re probably right. Realistically, it doesn’t matter if you’re #1 or #69 and make it in the same month/increment.


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Yup.  This isn't credible.  List should be ordered and sequenced according to order of merit before it begins its routing process.  In any case, it certainly doesn't warrant a long delay.  As someone else pointed out, they already rack and stack for order of merit at the board anyway.  Simply overlaying that on a spreadsheet with regard to pin-on time is not a drastic change and frankly it's a good change.  The only thing that is a little tricky is that the boards are now using the new functional categories and not racked and stacked in one big group.  This doesn't necessarily translate neatly into a single ordered list accounting for all categories.  Hypothetical example: the best weather officer in the year group with an impeccable record is ranked extremely high in his category....call it 10/250 in the Information Warfare Category.  How does that translate into the larger order of merit for the entire board?  In my mind, it's got to be proportionally weighted as a percentage and then plugged into a master x/### list accordingly since some categories have much more people in them -- candidly I'm unsure of how they're doing this.  But i gotta think this was done well before the list started its coordination process.  

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4 hours ago, BigWing said:

Wow, actually some movement this week. It's with USD (P&R) as of the 16th. Looks like past board public release was ~2 weeks give or take from this point. 

Probably wait till week of 28 Sep at the earliest to avoid any overshadowing with the SSgt release next week. 

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38 minutes ago, celtic020 said:

Have to imagine that will be really, really soon.  I got tipped off 2 weeks ahead of Public Release last year (obviously did not make it) 

Fun.  I was told the day prior to the public release.  And then because I have a common name, I spent the next day telling my bros that I did not, in fact, get promoted.

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