Fuzz Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I'm sorry, this is a little flawed, as not all 461 dudes were necessarily eligible for the bonus. Your bro would need to go look and see how many of the 461 met the eligibility requirements. As mentioned, prior E, prior service, other factors are in play here. Once your bro knows the true number of the 461 who met eligibility requirements, only then will we know what the true % takers was. I think the terminology used was wrong but the larger point which was by saying "oh look 62% of the pilots took the bonus, nothing to see here everything is good" is as we all know false. This shows basing the health of the pilot manning on the percentage of takers is a bad metric. It's, as is being discussed in the Sequestration thread, manipulating data and playing word games to make things look all fine and dandy, the new bonus is working and now they don't have to address actual problems. It doesn't matter if there were 211 eligible or 50; it would have been spun the same way and ignored the other large number of people that were ineligible that were lost. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bergman Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Overall fighter pilot loss for FY13 (up to 30 Sept 13) is 59%. Out of 461 eligible, 276 got out.Holy shit! Regardless of how, when, or why...the fact (if true) that HALF of eligible fighter guys just left should be a giant clue bird that the ship is taking on water. Titanic, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warrior Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Holy shit! Regardless of how, when, or why...the fact (if true) that HALF of eligible fighter guys just left should be a giant clue bird that the ship is taking on water. Titanic, anyone? Not so fast. We are assuming that half the guys getting out this year is a statistically significant change from last year. I'm not saying it's not, I'm saying that we don't have enough info to claim the sky is falling (in this instance)Holy shit! Regardless of how, when, or why...the fact (if true) that HALF of eligible fighter guys just left should be a giant clue bird that the ship is taking on water. Titanic, anyone? Not so fast. We are assuming that half the guys getting out this year is a statistically significant change from last year. I'm not saying it's not, I'm saying that we don't have enough info to claim the sky is falling (in this instance) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeHoler Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Read the Rated Retention Report...it is about the same as FY12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rusty Pipes Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Not so fast. We are assuming that half the guys getting out this year is a statistically significant change from last year. I'm not saying it's not, I'm saying that we don't have enough info to claim the sky is falling (in this instance) Agreed that is comparing stats to nothing, but in the past 2 weeks I've had 3 buds get hired by SWA and 3 hired by UA... and those were just the random post I happened to see on Facebook! All were active duty and all were MAF... only 1 of 6 were not eligible for the ACP this year, but he actually turned it down last year. Obviously anecdotal and not a "stat", but that sure as hell wasn't happening last year and the "hiring boom" (cue Butters) hasn't even started yet. They will be able to absorb this a little bit in the next year or so by not sending pilots to staff and PCSing guys from Staff back to flying, but that is a just a band aid. I'd say the next few years are going to be rough on the AF pilot community... hard to argue against that. Big Blue better get creative and they'd better do it fast... calling Chang... oh, Chang... has anyone heard from Chang?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C-21.Pilot Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 (edited) Just because a CAF or MAF guy doesn't take the bonus doesn't necessarily mean he's getting out when his/her ADSC is complete. Some guys just want to be more in control of where their career goes, and this is one way of allowing that to happen. So, in essence, you won't be able to draw any conclusions from "how many folks actually LEAVE" until all those eligible for the bonus who DIDN'T take it are past their ADSC -- hence, the retention. I speculate we won't know until next year or two (right in the middle of the BOOM). EDIT: Jusy saw on FB last night 2 more friends hired by SWA and one more to UAL. Edited November 25, 2013 by C-21.Pilot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rusty Pipes Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 (edited) Just because a CAF or MAF guy doesn't take the bonus doesn't necessarily mean he's getting out when his/her ADSC is complete. Some guys just want to be more in control of where their career goes, and this is one way of allowing that to happen. So, in essence, you won't be able to draw any conclusions from "how many folks actually LEAVE" until all those eligible for the bonus who DIDN'T take it are past their ADSC -- hence, the retention. I speculate we won't know until next year or two (right in the middle of the BOOM). EDIT: Jusy saw on FB last night 2 more friends hired by SWA and one more to UAL. The other big factor in that is the School issue... as of now, essentially if you weren't a promotion board select then you aren't going. I have a few buds who are sitting Sq CCs and say it has been pretty tough to keep those guys motivated, especially when they are seeing all their buds getting the call from SWA, UAL, etc in the past few months. I understand the reasoning for making that change, but it may become an unintended retention barrier for pilots. Edited November 25, 2013 by Rusty Pipes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuzz Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Just because a CAF or MAF guy doesn't take the bonus doesn't necessarily mean he's getting out when his/her ADSC is complete. Some guys just want to be more in control of where their career goes, and this is one way of allowing that to happen. So, in essence, you won't be able to draw any conclusions from "how many folks actually LEAVE" until all those eligible for the bonus who DIDN'T take it are past their ADSC -- hence, the retention. I speculate we won't know until next year or two (right in the middle of the BOOM). EDIT: Jusy saw on FB last night 2 more friends hired by SWA and one more to UAL. If I'm reading the post correctly, 59% of the 450+ pilots in that FY actually did separate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sky_king Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 So if an 11F takes the bonus and they kick him out after 2 years, does he owe back the $112,500? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeHoler Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 So if an 11F takes the bonus and they kick him out after 2 years, does he owe back the $112,500? Not according to the reg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herk Driver Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Not according to the reg. That depends. Check out AFI 36-3004, Table 1.1. There are two notes that cover involuntary separation (Notes 2 and 3). In some cases, recoupment happens and in others it does not. It depends on the circumstances and why the individual is being "kicked out". In either case, they will only recoup "unearned" portions of the bonus already paid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vetter Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 They will get their money back. Don't spend it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwShoot1209 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 I forecast a flood of prior-enlisted intel workers finding civilian contract intel jobs in the next 6-9 months, and making a mint better than their current paycheck. https://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDisplay/tabid/223/Article/467611/45-afscs-removed-from-srb-list-as-af-gets-leaner-smaller.aspx 45 AFSCs removed from SRB list as AF gets leaner, smaller By Debbie Gildea, Air Force Personnel Center Public Affairs / Published November 26, 2013 JOINT BASE SAN ANTONIO-RANDOLPH, Texas (AFNS) -- Forty-five AFSCs will no longer be eligible for the selective reenlistment bonus effective Dec. 5 with the advent of the new selective reenlistment bonus list, Air Force officials announced Nov. 26. SRB eligibility changes posture the Air Force for a smaller force driven by sequestration, said Brig. Gen. Gina Grosso, the Air Force director of force management policy.“The SRB program is a retention tool," Grosso said. "As the force gets smaller, skills that were under-manned are no longer short and we are adjusting the bonus program accordingly.”Critical and emerging career fields with high operations demands and low manning -- such as battlefield Airmen and cyberspace specialties -- still require attention, the general said, so some AFSCs will remain on the SRB list. As of Dec. 5, AFSCs on the SRB list will include the following:1A8X1 Airborne Cryptologic Language Analyst 1A8X2 Airborne Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Operator 1B4X1 Cyberspace Defense Operations1C2X1 Combat Control1C4X1 Tactical Air Control Party1N4X1A Fusion Analyst, Digital Network Analyst1T0X1 Survival, Evasion, Resistance and Escape1T2X1 Pararescue1W0X2 Special Operations Weather3E8X1 Explosive Ordnance DisposalAFSCs being removed from the SRB list will include the following:1A0X1 In-Flight Refueling 1A2X1 Aircraft Loadmaster 1C1X1 Air Traffic Control 1C3X1 Command Post1C5X1 Command and Control Battle Management Operations1C5X1D Command and Control Battle Management Operations – Weapons Director1C6X1 Space Systems Operations1C7X1 Airfield Management1N0X1 Operations Intelligence1N1X1A Geospatial Intelligence Analyst1N1X1B Geospatial Intelligence Targeteer1N3X1 Cryptologic Language Analyst1N4X1B Fusion Analyst – Analysis and Production1U0X1 Remotely Piloted Aircraft Sensor Operator1W0X1 Weather2A5X2B Helicopter/Tiltrotor Aircraft Maintenance (H-60) 2A5X2D Helicopter/Tiltrotor Aircraft Maintenance (CV-22)2A7X1 Aircraft Metals Technology2A7X3 Aircraft Structural Maintenance2A7X5 Low Observable Aircraft Structural Maintenance2M0X1 Missile and Space System Electrical Maintenance2M0X2 Missile and Space System Maintenance2M0X3 Missile and Space Facilities2T3X2A Special Vehicle Maintenance – Fire Fighting Vehicles2T3X7 Vehicle Management & Analysis3D0X2 Cyber Systems Operations3D0X3 Cyber Surety3D0X4 Computer Systems Programming3E2X1 Pavements and Construction Equipment3E3X1 Structural3E4X1 Water and Fuel System Maintenance3E5X1 Engineering3N0X2 Broadcast Journalist3N0X5 Photojournalist3P0X1A Security Forces Military Working Dog Handler3S3X3 Manpower4C0X1 Mental Health Service4E0X1 Public Health4H0X1 Cardiopulmonary Laboratory 4N0X1C Aero Medical Service – Independent Duty Medical Technician 4N1X1C Surgical Service – Orthopedics4P0X1 Pharmacy4R0X1C Diagnostic Imaging – Magnetic Resonance Imaging4Y0X1H Dental Hygienist6C0X1 Contracting 7S0X1 Special InvestigationsDue to recent changes in Department of Defense policy, Airmen who are in an AFSC being removed from the SRB listing will no longer have 30 days to reenlist from the date the AFSC is removed. Instead Airmen in an AFSC being removed will have through Dec. 4 to reenlist and receive an SRB. Anyone reenlisting on Dec. 5 or later will use the new SRB list. In addition to these changes Airmen will no longer be able to request accelerated SRB payments. For more information about SRB changes and other personnel issues, visit the myPers website at https://mypers.af.mil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeHoler Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Because that belongs in the Aviation Retention Pay thread... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotADude Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Just out of curiosity, who was your source? Someone at AFPC (as in, a functional?) or is this bro-speak? It was bro-speak that I got (fairly removed) from someone who is a WG exec (Maj type). I believe it's all his personal analysis, so definitely not AFPC (although let's be honest, those guys have no clue what's going on in the AF right now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butters Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Anyone know when the FY14 Bonus is going to be released? I heard they were going to triple it since the hiring boom is here. Did I say triple? I meat quadruple. I found it funny today that when I went to work the AF still existed after a 68% bonus take rate and a hiring boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BitteEinBit Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Anyone know when the FY14 Bonus is going to be released? I heard they were going to triple it since the hiring boom is here. Did I say triple? I meat quadruple. I found it funny today that when I went to work the AF still existed after a 68% bonus take rate and a hiring boom. Of course we'll still have an Air Force. We'd have an Air Force if it was a 0% take rate and a hiring free-for-all. What we should be considering is how effective and efficient will our Air Force be if we keep having low bonus take rates and a hiring boom. We should be considering addressing what is causing the low take rates and how we plan to manage aircrew shortages many people in personnel management positions still refuse to acknowledge. I know you're just trying to jokingly jab at those who are seemingly crying wolf on this issue, but there are actually people in management positions who would rather this organization fail than to admit that personnel management mistakes have been made and that we do have a real potential problem in the making...they just refuse to see it coming (standard). It is the "nothing-to-see-here-manipulate-the-stats-so-our-problem-is-masked" crowd that we need to worry about. Being an effective fighting force is more than just having enough bodies and looking good. We probably meet our end-strength numbers (after manipulation of course), but are we really that good or do we just look good on paper? I do know one guy at the top who has already acknowledged this problem...and he isn't laughing right now. Buy hey, that's just me crying wolf again...we've never really seen anything like this in the history of the AF...after all, we haven't stopped being an Air Force since 1947...why should we worry now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azimuth Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 https://www.stripes.com/special-pays-would-be-first-casualty-of-delayed-defense-bill-1.254910 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rusty Pipes Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Take away flight pay… yeah, that should do wonders for retention! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hindsight2020 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Based on the responder's comments, it seems the justification behind taking away incentive pay stems from the idea that there are people on the outside lining up to perform these specialty AFSC/MOS. The problem with that logic is that the main complaint on the part of the members already in is their inability to be allowed to perform said duty as a preponderance of their time in the service. Put another way, *gasp* ....the AF sucks the fun out of it. So you need money to keep experience, in order to gain the discretion to mismanage said experience. Epic. Here's an alternate scenario. How 'bout let people do their job til they're blue in the face and not fuck with them when they're at home. Nah, that would just be too fucking Burger King for the likes of senior leadership. Ah fuck it. Do something til it stops making sense to you and your family, or you get fired. Works for me. Y'all already did more than 99% of the pedestrians out there. /choirpreach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PropWash Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Bah, I'll believe it when it happens. No one wants to be the Congressman who kept the troops from getting their combat pay. Hell, even when they shut down the government, they bailed out AD military pay in the 11th hour. I've been wrong before but I will be shocked if this comes to pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matmacwc Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 And they didn't bail out the GS until hour plus 4 days. Just wait, it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ViperStud Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Rumor from CC, claims its from a source at the puzzle palace in DC. Combo of A-10, F-15 and staff cuts would delete a lot of rated positions and "fix the glitch" of a pilot shortage. With no shortage, they have talked about no bonus this year. A lot of moving parts, like when do the plans get released, when does the bonus announcement come out, etc. Interesting that a year after it goes up, it goes away. Nothing certain by a long shot, just talk. I can't believe AFPC would want to deal with a bunch of free agents with opportunities on the outside in the coming years. Even butters admits the hiring boom is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonka Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Too bad we have to wait 6-9 months to find out... There's going to be a lot of career-gambling this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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