The Next President is...

[filthy_liar]

17 hours ago, dream big said:

The only downside to a Trump victory is the insane rioting from the jobless left / Antifa / BLM that is about to go down.  Thankfully I live in a small Texas town that understands civility despite which side you are on, but man, I don’t envy those in a big city right now.  
 

Also, the media wants Trump to win.  He is their punching bag and scapegoat.  Who else will cover their news cycle? He’s probably the source of most of their profits! They should thank him one day. 

You are correct.  There will be rioting from the jobless idiots on the left and those that support them. You are also correct, big cities are not the place to be.  They never were.

[Pooter]

9 minutes ago, filthy_liar said:

You are correct.  There will be rioting from the jobless idiots on the left and those that support them. You are also correct, big cities are not the place to be.  They never were.

This has been one of the only fun parts of the last few months of pandemic/civil unrest: watching something we already knew gradually dawn on the rest of the population. 
 

I almost want Biden to win, if only so that it takes away the trump scapegoat and forces the left to take a look in the mirror and figure out why the parts of the country they run are invariably dumpster fires.  

[filthy_liar]

On 10/31/2020 at 11:38 PM, Negatory said:

Kind of begs the question because it seems like you're all on board: what technologies are worth keeping domestic due to the security risk? Would you sell F-22's to Russia if they would pay to open the production line? How bout somewhere like Turkey? Would you sell other technologies just because they would pay for a portion of them?

This isn't as black and white as you guys are making it seem.

Fair. We should not sell F-22s to Russia.  Probably shouldn't sell them to Turkey. Or to Israel. That's a fair point.  An even bigger question...LM has the 22 and 35 contracts. They'll recompete every four or five years, whatever the Feds tell them to do. They shouldn't have both of those contracts. That's a problem.

 

 

Edited November 2, 2020 by filthy_liar

[Danger41]

Why not Israel? 

[filthy_liar]

I'm a conservative.  Conservative.  Not an Evangelical, or supporter of the radical right.  Not accusing you of being any of that, just laying down who I am not.  I like to use logic.  I realize we used Israel as a pawn during the cold war. I don't think that worked out well.  Cost us a shitload of $$$.  For what?  Since '48, what has Israel given us?  Why would we not sell Israel next generation fighters? Because they do air raids on Syria with out or support.  And they do other stuff that we shan't say on here. And because since '48 they have acted against our interests in all five of the DIMES if you believe in that stuff.  Israel costs us money.  A lot.  I pay taxes, what I think are too many taxes. The US passed a 38B bill for Israel in 2020.  Too lazy to look up if it passed.  Regardless if it passed, if there is an aid bill that big out there...for Israel....Not a fan

 

 

[filthy_liar]

On 10/30/2020 at 6:34 PM, Sua Sponte said:

almost six figure military contractor job.

Oh goodness.  So you don't make $100K as a federal contractor?  I can get you a better gig.  And we're hiring.  PM me.

 

[GoodSplash9]

1 hour ago, filthy_liar said:

I'm a conservative.  Conservative.  Not an Evangelical, or supporter of the radical right.  Not accusing you of being any of that, just laying down who I am not.  I like to use logic.  I realize we used Israel as a pawn during the cold war. I don't think that worked out well.  Cost us a shitload of $$$.  For what?  Since '48, what has Israel given us?  Why would we not sell Israel next generation fighters? Because they do air raids on Syria with out or support.  And they do other stuff that we shan't say on here. And because since '48 they have acted against our interests in all five of the DIMES if you believe in that stuff.  Israel costs us money.  A lot.  I pay taxes, what I think are too many taxes. The US passed a 38B bill for Israel in 2020.  Too lazy to look up if it passed.  Regardless if it passed, if there is an aid bill that big out there...for Israel....Not a fan

 

 

Troll...

[gearhog]

Screenshot your electoral predictions.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/r9v80

Trump wins.

 

 

Edited November 2, 2020 by torqued

[Sim]

Liberal "intellectuals" are waking up.  

https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FKamalaHarris%2Fstatus%2F1322963321994289154&widget=Tweet

 

[Seadogs]

 

Trump is going to win big. 

 

Take a look at the "Primary Model" by Helmut Nortpoth. Hard numbers to defend his statistical model. Correctly predicted 25/27 presidential elections since 1912. Only missed 1960 and 2000 because courts got involved. Unless courts get involved this time then Trump will win.

 

Again, Democrats are going to have a rude awakening in this election. Hopefully Trump wins MI and WI tomorrow so he can declare victory and we don't have to wait for NC and PA.

[Sim]

 

[DosXX]

2 hours ago, Seadogs said:

Take a look at the "Primary Model" by Helmut Nortpoth. Hard numbers to defend his statistical model. Correctly predicted 25/27 presidential elections since 1912. Only missed 1960 and 2000 because courts got involved. Unless courts get involved this time then Trump will win.

It has predicted 4, not 25. You can't retroactively predict events with a statistical model and claim it as evidence of predictive power, that's classic overfitting. Even if Trump wins I doubt it's going to be with a landslide of that size.

 

Edited November 2, 2020 by DosXX
Added my prediction

[Seadogs]

11 minutes ago, DosXX said:

It has predicted 4, not 25. You can't retroactively predict events with a statistical model and claim it as evidence of predictive power, that's classic overfitting. Even if Trump wins I doubt it's going to be with a landslide of that size.

 

 

See you tomorrow. 

[Kiloalpha]

If the news/polls end up being “kind of right” I think we get here after the thousands of court cases/appeals. PA could very well be red, but their ballot counting clusterfuck will likely turn it blue. I have a second, more optimistic map for Republicans, but there’s no way in hell I’d put money on it.

[M2]

4 minutes ago, Kiloalpha said:

If the news/polls end up being “kind of right"...

You lost my interest after that intro...

[Seadogs]

You guys believe MSM and the polls way too much. Guess their tactics are working though. On a military forum where many see combat, people think and want Biden to win. Now that is an interesting data point.

[Sua Sponte]

42 minutes ago, Seadogs said:

You guys believe MSM and the polls way too much. Guess their tactics are working though. On a military forum where many see combat, people think and want Biden to win. Now that is an interesting data point.

The interesting point is you questioning people on this forum’s service because they don’t share the same political opinion as you.  Or how military members/veterans are supposed to support Trump, you know, the guy who skirted service himself due to “bone spurs.” You also said “see you tomorrow” to someone else, assuming all the ballots will be counted immediately after tomorrow. Apparently you’ve never witnessed a Presidential Election where it takes some states days, and possibly weeks, after the close of the polls to count the voters depending on state law. For instance, Colorado state law says that ballots have to be in by 7pm (MST) tomorrow night once the polls close. However, if a voter was notified there was an issue with their ballot, they have up to eight days, nine days this year due to the eight day falling on Veteran’s Day, to correct their ballot to be counted. Many states don’t even allow counting of ballots until after the polls close.

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/01/930140373/fact-check-trump-falsely-claims-that-votes-shouldnt-be-counted-after-election-da

[Sua Sponte]

3 hours ago, Kiloalpha said:

If the news/polls end up being “kind of right” I think we get here after the thousands of court cases/appeals. PA could very well be red, but their ballot counting clusterfuck will likely turn it blue. I have a second, more optimistic map for Republicans, but there’s no way in hell I’d put money on it.

If Trump wins the “Southern Route,” Pennsylvania is even more key. But much like your map I don’t see him winning Arizona, and I’m 50/50 if he’ll win Georgia or Florida, which if Biden wins one of the five “Southern Route” states, Trump is screwed. But we all know a state could flip at the last second. I think Florida is going to be just as contested as 2000 and that the SCOTUS is going to see another version Bush v. Gore.

[Seadogs]

18 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

The interesting point is you questioning people on this forum’s service because they don’t share the same political opinion as you.  Or how military members/veterans are supposed to support Trump, you know, the guy who skirted service himself due to “bone spurs.” You also said “see you tomorrow” to someone else, assuming all the ballots will be counted immediately after tomorrow. Apparently you’ve never witnessed a Presidential Election where it takes some states days, and possibly weeks, after the close of the polls to count the voters depending on state law. For instance, Colorado state law says that ballots have to be in by 7pm (MST) tomorrow night once the polls close. However, if a voter was notified there was an issue with their ballot, they have up to eight days, nine days this year due to the eight day falling on Veteran’s Day, to correct their ballot to be counted. Many states don’t even allow counting of ballots until after the polls close.

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/01/930140373/fact-check-trump-falsely-claims-that-votes-shouldnt-be-counted-after-election-da

Thanks for putting words in my mouth. Did I question anyone's service? Simply a data point in my opinion. Be offended though. Seems like that is what you are best at. 

[HercDude]

[filthy_liar]

4 hours ago, Seadogs said:

You guys believe MSM and the polls way too much. Guess their tactics are working though. On a military forum where many see combat, people think and want Biden to win. Now that is an interesting data point.

Agree, except: .  many see combat,  No, most do not see combat. On this forum, or in civilian life.

I agree with your point above. Interesting data point for sure.

[pcola]

Some very good points made in this article.
TLDR: Biden winning tomorrow will be a silver lining for the conservative long game.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/11/republicans-choice-trump-or-2024/


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

[kaputt]

4 hours ago, pcola said:

Some very good points made in this article.
TLDR: Biden winning tomorrow will be a silver lining for the conservative long game.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/11/republicans-choice-trump-or-2024/


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

Always tough to predict the future. 
 

The article mentions some of the differences between then and now, but a huge one is how far left some mainstream portions of the democrat party already are. There is a risk of a lot of damage being done in only 4 years of a Harris administration with Joe Biden as President. 
 

Beyond that, is there even a Reagan waiting in the wings? He challenged Ford in the primary and was already establishing himself as a true conservative and leader. I don’t see anyone right now in the Republican Party that could be that person. 
 

Another item from that article that I personally think conservatives make a mistake on is having the pro-life/pro-choice debate be a cornerstone of their policy. Most younger conservatives I know are actually pro-choice, and I think many conservative leaning women sometimes get turned off by the heavy pro-life factions of the Republican Party. 
 

It will be interesting to see what happens today, or maybe in the next few days and weeks?

[gearhog]

47 minutes ago, kaputt said:

Beyond that, is there even a Reagan waiting in the wings? He challenged Ford in the primary and was already establishing himself as a true conservative and leader. I don’t see anyone right now in the Republican Party that could be that person.

Crenshaw!

[dream big]

13 hours ago, Sua Sponte said:

The interesting point is you questioning people on this forum’s service because they don’t share the same political opinion as you.  Or how military members/veterans are supposed to support Trump, you know, the guy who skirted service himself due to “bone spurs.” You also said “see you tomorrow” to someone else, assuming all the ballots will be counted immediately after tomorrow. Apparently you’ve never witnessed a Presidential Election where it takes some states days, and possibly weeks, after the close of the polls to count the voters depending on state law. For instance, Colorado state law says that ballots have to be in by 7pm (MST) tomorrow night once the polls close. However, if a voter was notified there was an issue with their ballot, they have up to eight days, nine days this year due to the eight day falling on Veteran’s Day, to correct their ballot to be counted. Many states don’t even allow counting of ballots until after the polls close.

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/01/930140373/fact-check-trump-falsely-claims-that-votes-shouldnt-be-counted-after-election-da

I don’t see how he was questioning anyone’s military service- giving him the benefit of the doubt it sounds like he’s just perplexed why military members would vote for Biden; especially since Biden was the VP during the gutting of the military during sequestration which cost many fellow aviator lives. Trump’s bone spurs? Don’t care..what conflict did Biden and Harris serve in? What conflict did Obama serve in? Trump’s policies have been very positive for the national defense of this country.  
 

Also most Biden supporters do realize he’s just filler right? His handlers will move him aside ASAP for Kamala who had 4% in the primary in terms of popularity.