Disclaimer: Each promotion board gets new guidance, and that specific guidance, nor the actual decision making process in the board is never transparently communicated afterwards. In short, you’ll never know why you did or did not make it.
The “if I had one more DP to give” is the best ‘super P’
For the P’s, in recent boards, if the verbal DP is tied with a strong command push like “should command now” or “ready for command immediately” that can put you in the high portion of the P’s. Conversely, if tied with a medium command push like “on track to command”, that verbal DP becomes less powerful.
It’s a tough code to crack...especially when you involve strats. My IPZ PRF had a straight #10/20 senior rater strat, but an “on track for command” and no verbal DP, with a “P” checked. Sounds cut and dry: exactly middle of the total pack, should be high P area with an overall 75% promotion rate. Passed over. Even colonels who’ve sat on boards looked at it and said WTF. Even the civilian passed over counselor (I think she’s the only one, or one of a very few, so she has a good feel for the system) was a bit baffled. Our awesome opaque process at work.
Honestly, after talking to a marine and some army guys I work with, I think the USAF promotion system is terrible and horridly riddled with unknowns. By comparison, the marines get a list of exactly who’s on the board beforehand. Ours sucks. Don’t put any value on it.
Bottom line, once it’s sign, let it go and decide what kind of officer and man YOU want to be. The ink representing some “leader’s” opaque opinion of your career DOES NOT define the impact you make. Only you do that. Don’t let the output of a broken system limit your contribution. If you’ve got a lot of combat hours, chances are good that you have a lot to teach young kids, and a lot to pass on to your community.
I know that doesn’t make the process any easier to endure, and you will likely still want to throat punch a “leader” or two if you get passed over. But know that regardless of rank and what the broken system decides, your inputs and experience are truly valuable to the LTs whose lives your experience and instruction can save.